scholarly journals Identification of spatial and temporal contributions of rainfalls to flash floods using neural network modelling: case study on the Lez Basin (Southern France)

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 3681-3718
Author(s):  
T. Darras ◽  
V. Borrell Estupina ◽  
L. Kong-A-Siou ◽  
B. Vayssade ◽  
A. Johannet ◽  
...  

Abstract. Flash floods pose significant hazards in urbanised zones and have important human and financial implications in both the present and future due to the likelihood that global climate change will exacerbate their consequences. It is thus of crucial importance to better model these phenomena especially when they occur in heterogeneous and karst basins where they are difficult to describe physically. Toward this goal, this paper applies a recent methodology (KnoX methodology) dedicated to extracting knowledge from a neural network model to better determine the contributions and time responses of several well-identified geographic zones of an aquifer. To assess the interest of this methodology, a case study was conducted in Southern France: the Lez hydrosystem whose river crosses the conurbation of Montpellier (400 000 inhabitants). Rainfall contributions and time transfers were estimated and analysed in four geologically-delimited zones to estimate the sensitivity of flash floods to water coming from the surface or karst. The Causse de Viol-le-Fort is shown to be the main contributor to flash floods and the delay between surface and underground flooding is estimated to be three hours. This study will thus help operational flood warning services to better characterise critical rainfall and develop measurements to design efficient flood forecasting models. This generic method can be applied to any basin with sufficient rainfall–runoff measurements.


2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 4397-4410 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Darras ◽  
V. Borrell Estupina ◽  
L. Kong-A-Siou ◽  
B. Vayssade ◽  
A. Johannet ◽  
...  

Abstract. Flash floods pose significant hazards in urbanised zones and have important implications financially and for humans alike in both the present and future due to the likelihood that global climate change will exacerbate their consequences. It is thus of crucial importance to improve the models of these phenomena especially when they occur in heterogeneous and karst basins where they are difficult to describe physically. Toward this goal, this paper applies a recent methodology (Knowledge eXtraction (KnoX) methodology) dedicated to extracting knowledge from a neural network model to better determine the contributions and time responses of several well-identified geographic zones of an aquifer. To assess the interest of this methodology, a case study was conducted in southern France: the Lez hydrosystem whose river crosses the conurbation of Montpellier (400 000 inhabitants). Rainfall contributions and time transfers were estimated and analysed in four geologically delimited zones to estimate the sensitivity of flash floods to water coming from the surface or karst. The Causse de Viols-le-Fort is shown to be the main contributor to flash floods and the delay between surface and underground flooding is estimated to be 3 h. This study will thus help operational flood warning services to better characterise critical rainfall and develop measurements to design efficient flood forecasting models. This generic method can be applied to any basin with sufficient rainfall–run-off measurements.



2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Ramz L. Fraiha Lopes ◽  
Simone G. C. Fraiha ◽  
Vinicius D. Lima ◽  
Herminio S. Gomes ◽  
Gervásio P. S. Cavalcante

This study explores the use of a hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network modelling for estimates of the electric field along vertical paths (buildings) close to Digital Television (DTV) transmitters. The work was carried out in Belém city, one of the most urbanized cities in the Brazilian Amazon and includes a case study of the application of this modelling within the subscenarios found in Belém. Its results were compared with the ITU recommendations P. 1546-5 and proved to be better in every subscenario analysed. In the worst case, the estimate of the model was approximately 65% better than that of the ITU. We also compared this modelling with a classic modelling technique: the Least Squares (LS) method. In most situations, the hybrid model achieved better results than the LS.





1995 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 505-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Pasini ◽  
S. Potestà


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (16) ◽  
pp. 53-64
Author(s):  
معصومه خادمی ◽  
رامین فضل‌ اولی ◽  
علیرضا عمادی ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  


2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Créton-Cazanave

Abstract. Warning is a key issue to reduce flash floods impacts. But, despite many studies, local and national authorities still struggle to issue good flash floods warnings. We will argue that this failure results from a classical approach of warnings, based on a strict separation between the assessment world and the action world. We will go further than the previous criticisms (Pielke and Carbone, 2002) and show that forecasters, decision makers, emergency services and local population have quite similar practices during a flash-flood warning. Focusing on the use of meteorological information in the warning process, our case study shows that more research about the real practices of stakeholders would be another step towards integrated studies.





2013 ◽  
Vol 507 ◽  
pp. 19-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Line Kong-A-Siou ◽  
Kévin Cros ◽  
Anne Johannet ◽  
Valérie Borrell-Estupina ◽  
Séverin Pistre


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