On the contribution of groundwater storage to interannual streamflow anomalies in the Colorado River basin

Abstract. We assess the significance of groundwater storage for seasonal streamflow forecasts by evaluating its contribution to interannual streamflow anomalies in the 29 tributary sub-basins of the Colorado River. Monthly and annual changes in total basin storage are simulated by two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model – the standard release of the model, and an alternate version that has been modified to include the SIMple Groundwater Model (SIMGM), which represents an unconfined aquifer underlying the soil column. These estimates are compared to those resulting from basin-scale water balances derived exclusively from observational data and changes in terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Changes in simulated groundwater storage are then compared to those derived via baseflow recession analysis for 72 reference-quality watersheds. Finally, estimates are statistically analyzed for relationships to interannual streamflow anomalies, and predictive capacities are compared across storage terms. We find that both model simulations result in similar estimates of total basin storage change, that these estimates compare favorably with those obtained from basin-scale water balances and GRACE data, and that baseflow recession analyses are consistent with simulated changes in groundwater storage. Statistical analyses reveal essentially no relationship between groundwater storage and interannual streamflow anomalies, suggesting that operational seasonal streamflow forecasts, which do not account for groundwater conditions implicitly or explicitly, are likely not detrimentally affected by this omission in the Colorado River basin.

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On the contribution of groundwater storage to interannual streamflow anomalies in the Colorado River basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-1475-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 1475-1491 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

E. A. Rosenberg ◽

E. A. Clark ◽

A. C. Steinemann ◽

D. P. Lettenmaier

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Colorado River ◽

Soil Column ◽

Colorado River Basin ◽

Infiltration Capacity ◽

Groundwater Storage ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Streamflow Forecasts ◽

Water Balances ◽

Seasonal Streamflow

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Enhancing Ensemble Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Upper Colorado River Basin Using Multi‐Model Climate Forecasts

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association ◽

10.1111/1752-1688.12960 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sarah A. Baker ◽

Balaji Rajagopalan ◽

Andrew W. Wood

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Colorado River ◽

Colorado River Basin ◽

Upper Colorado River Basin ◽

Climate Forecasts ◽

Streamflow Forecasts ◽

Seasonal Streamflow

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Winter Inputs Buffer Streamflow Sensitivity to Snowpack Losses in the Salt River Watershed in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w13010003 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 3

Author(s):

Marcos D. Robles ◽

John C. Hammond ◽

Stephanie K. Kampf ◽

Joel A. Biederman ◽

Eleonora M. C. Demaria

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Colorado River ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Colorado River Basin ◽

Scale Model ◽

Annual Streamflow ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Salt River ◽

Lower Colorado River Basin ◽

Lower Colorado River

Recent streamflow declines in the Upper Colorado River Basin raise concerns about the sensitivity of water supply for 40 million people to rising temperatures. Yet, other studies in western US river basins present a paradox: streamflow has not consistently declined with warming and snow loss. A potential explanation for this lack of consistency is warming-induced production of winter runoff when potential evaporative losses are low. This mechanism is more likely in basins at lower elevations or latitudes with relatively warm winter temperatures and intermittent snowpacks. We test whether this accounts for streamflow patterns in nine gaged basins of the Salt River and its tributaries, which is a sub-basin in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). We develop a basin-scale model that separates snow and rainfall inputs and simulates snow accumulation and melt using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. Despite significant warming from 1968–2011 and snow loss in many of the basins, annual and seasonal streamflow did not decline. Between 25% and 50% of annual streamflow is generated in winter (NDJF) when runoff ratios are generally higher and potential evapotranspiration losses are one-third of potential losses in spring (MAMJ). Sub-annual streamflow responses to winter inputs were larger and more efficient than spring and summer responses and their frequencies and magnitudes increased in 1968–2011 compared to 1929–1967. In total, 75% of the largest winter events were associated with atmospheric rivers, which can produce large cool-season streamflow peaks. We conclude that temperature-induced snow loss in this LCRB sub-basin was moderated by enhanced winter hydrological inputs and streamflow production.

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Basis for Extending Long-Term Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ◽

10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000153 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 16 (12) ◽

pp. 1000-1008 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Kenneth W. Lamb ◽

Thomas C. Piechota ◽

Oubeidillah A. Aziz ◽

Glenn A. Tootle

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Colorado River ◽

Colorado River Basin ◽

Streamflow Forecasts

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Increased Temperatures Overwhelm Precipitation Changes Leading to Streamflow Declines in the Colorado River Basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3151 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kristen Whitney ◽

Enrique Vivoni ◽

Theodore Bohn ◽

Zhaocheng Wang ◽

Mu Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Surface ◽

Climate Models ◽

Colorado River ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Grand Canyon ◽

Colorado River Basin ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Infiltration Capacity

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced widespread and prolonged drought in the 21st century with recent precipitation (P) up to 25% below historical means and air temperature (T) up to 0.8 oC warmer. The extent that continued warming will lead to streamflow (Q) decline is unclear given the high interannual variability of P. Here we explore physically plausible ways that climate change could impact Q using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We integrated advances in VIC using Landsat- and MODIS-based products to produce more realistic land surface conditions and used this setup to simulate long-range Q projections. Meteorological datasets were sourced from gridded daily observations (1950-2013) and downscaled historical (1950-2005) and future projections (2006-2099) derived from multiple CMIP5 models under a low and a high emission scenario to explore forcing uncertainties and cases where P increase could offset warming. We compared the impacts of anticipated climate change on hydrologic responses in subbasins key for water management to gauge their importance for basin-wide water budgets and how these relationships could evolve in time, as this has been a largely unexplored aspect in the CRB. Results showed that spatial gradients in seasonal P changes led to contrasting seasonal responses in runoff (R) across the CRB. Whereas most of the Upper Basin had a shift to greater R during the winter, summer R declined over most of the CRB due to heightened evapotranspiration in the northwest (Green, Upper Colorado, Glen Canyon, and Grand Canyon subbasins) and large P decline in the southeast (San Juan, Little Colorado, and Gila subbasins). The strength of seasonal runoff signals across different climate models and their impacts to annual Q were dependent on subbasin area and emission scenario. Annual Q at the CRB outlet declined in most cases, however, reflecting the pervasive drying effect of warming.

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