Basis for Extending Long-Term Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 1000-1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Lamb ◽  
Thomas C. Piechota ◽  
Oubeidillah A. Aziz ◽  
Glenn A. Tootle
2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 888-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca A. Smith ◽  
Christian D. Kummerow

Abstract Using in situ, reanalysis, and satellite-derived datasets, surface and atmospheric water budgets of the Upper Colorado River basin are analyzed. All datasets capture the seasonal cycle for each water budget component. For precipitation, all products capture the interannual variability, though reanalyses tend to overestimate in situ while satellite-derived precipitation underestimates. Most products capture the interannual variability of evapotranspiration (ET), though magnitudes differ among the products. Variability and magnitude among storage volume change products widely vary. With regards to the surface water budget, the strongest connections exist among precipitation, ET, and soil moisture, while snow water equivalent (SWE) is best correlated with runoff. Using in situ precipitation estimates, the Max Planck Institute (MPI) ET estimates, and accumulated runoff, changes in storage are calculated and compare well with estimated changes in storage calculated using SWE, reservoir, and the Climate Prediction Center’s soil moisture. Using in situ precipitation estimates, MPI ET estimates, and atmospheric divergence estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) results in a long-term atmospheric storage change estimate of −73 mm. Long-term surface storage estimates combined with long-term runoff come close to balancing with long-term atmospheric convergence from ERA-Interim. Increasing the MPI ET by 5% leads to a better balance between surface storage changes, runoff, and atmospheric convergence. It also brings long-term atmospheric storage changes to a better balance at +13 mm.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 13191-13230 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Rosenberg ◽  
E. A. Clark ◽  
A. C. Steinemann ◽  
D. P. Lettenmaier

Abstract. We assess the significance of groundwater storage for seasonal streamflow forecasts by evaluating its contribution to interannual streamflow anomalies in the 29 tributary sub-basins of the Colorado River. Monthly and annual changes in total basin storage are simulated by two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model – the standard release of the model, and an alternate version that has been modified to include the SIMple Groundwater Model (SIMGM), which represents an unconfined aquifer underlying the soil column. These estimates are compared to those resulting from basin-scale water balances derived exclusively from observational data and changes in terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Changes in simulated groundwater storage are then compared to those derived via baseflow recession analysis for 72 reference-quality watersheds. Finally, estimates are statistically analyzed for relationships to interannual streamflow anomalies, and predictive capacities are compared across storage terms. We find that both model simulations result in similar estimates of total basin storage change, that these estimates compare favorably with those obtained from basin-scale water balances and GRACE data, and that baseflow recession analyses are consistent with simulated changes in groundwater storage. Statistical analyses reveal essentially no relationship between groundwater storage and interannual streamflow anomalies, suggesting that operational seasonal streamflow forecasts, which do not account for groundwater conditions implicitly or explicitly, are likely not detrimentally affected by this omission in the Colorado River basin.


2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1475-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Rosenberg ◽  
E. A. Clark ◽  
A. C. Steinemann ◽  
D. P. Lettenmaier

Abstract. We assess the significance of groundwater storage for seasonal streamflow forecasts by evaluating its contribution to interannual streamflow anomalies in the 29 tributary sub-basins of the Colorado River. Monthly and annual changes in total basin storage are simulated by two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model – the standard release of the model, and an alternate version that has been modified to include the SIMple Groundwater Model (SIMGM), which represents an unconfined aquifer underlying the soil column. These estimates are compared to those resulting from basin-scale water balances derived exclusively from observational data and changes in terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. Changes in simulated groundwater storage are then compared to those derived via baseflow recession analysis for 72 reference-quality watersheds. Finally, estimates are statistically analyzed for relationships to interannual streamflow anomalies, and predictive capacities are compared across storage terms. We find that both model simulations result in similar estimates of total basin storage change, that these estimates compare favorably with those obtained from basin-scale water balances and GRACE data, and that baseflow recession analyses are consistent with simulated changes in groundwater storage. Statistical analyses reveal essentially no relationship between groundwater storage and interannual streamflow anomalies, suggesting that operational seasonal streamflow forecasts, which do not account for groundwater conditions implicitly or explicitly, are likely not detrimentally affected by this omission in the Colorado River basin.


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