Increased Temperatures Overwhelm Precipitation Changes Leading to Streamflow Declines in the Colorado River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen Whitney ◽  
Enrique Vivoni ◽  
Theodore Bohn ◽  
Zhaocheng Wang ◽  
Mu Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Grand Canyon ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Infiltration Capacity

<p>The Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced widespread and prolonged drought in the 21<sup>st</sup> century with recent precipitation (<em>P</em>) up to 25% below historical means and air temperature (<em>T</em>) up to 0.8 <sup>o</sup>C warmer. The extent that continued warming will lead to streamflow (<em>Q</em>) decline is unclear given the high interannual variability of P. Here we explore physically plausible ways that climate change could impact <em>Q</em> using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We integrated advances in VIC using Landsat- and MODIS-based products to produce more realistic land surface conditions and used this setup to simulate long-range <em>Q</em> projections. Meteorological datasets were sourced from gridded daily observations (1950-2013) and downscaled historical (1950-2005) and future projections (2006-2099) derived from multiple CMIP5 models under a low and a high emission scenario to explore forcing uncertainties and cases where <em>P</em> increase could offset warming. We compared the impacts of anticipated climate change on hydrologic responses in subbasins key for water management to gauge their importance for basin-wide water budgets and how these relationships could evolve in time, as this has been a largely unexplored aspect in the CRB. Results showed that spatial gradients in seasonal <em>P</em> changes led to contrasting seasonal responses in runoff (<em>R</em>) across the CRB. Whereas most of the Upper Basin had a shift to greater <em>R</em> during the winter, summer <em>R</em> declined over most of the CRB due to heightened evapotranspiration in the northwest (Green, Upper Colorado, Glen Canyon, and Grand Canyon subbasins) and large <em>P </em>decline in the southeast (San Juan, Little Colorado, and Gila subbasins). The strength of seasonal runoff signals across different climate models and their impacts to annual <em>Q</em> were dependent on subbasin area and emission scenario. Annual <em>Q</em> at the CRB outlet declined in most cases, however, reflecting the pervasive drying effect of warming.</p>

scholarly journals Interactions between Climate Change and Complex Topography Drive Observed Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 1637-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt C. Solander ◽  
Katrina E. Bennett ◽  
Sean W. Fleming ◽  
David S. Gutzler ◽  
Emily M. Hopkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Food Resource ◽  
The United States ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Strong Relation ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract The Colorado River basin (CRB) is one of the most important watersheds for energy, water, and food security in the United States. CRB water supports 15% of U.S. food production, more than 50 GW of electricity capacity, and one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Energy–water–food nexus impacts from climate change are projected to increase in the CRB. These include a higher incidence of extreme events, widespread snow-to-rain regime shifts, and a higher frequency and magnitude of climate-driven disturbances. Here, we empirically show how the historical annual streamflow maximum and hydrograph centroid timing relate to temperature, precipitation, and snow. In addition, we show how these hydroclimatic relationships vary with elevation and how the elevation dependence has changed over this historical observational record. We find temperature and precipitation have a relatively weak relation (|r| < 0.3) to interannual variations in streamflow timing and extremes at low elevations (<1500 m), but a relatively strong relation (|r| > 0.5) at high elevations (>2300 m) where more snow occurs in the CRB. The threshold elevation where this relationship is strongest (|r| > 0.5) is moving uphill at a rate of up to 4.8 m yr−1 (p = 0.11) and 6.1 m yr−1 (p = 0.01) for temperature and precipitation, respectively. Based on these findings, we hypothesize where warming and precipitation-related streamflow changes are likely to be most severe using a watershed-scale vulnerability map to prioritize areas for further research and to inform energy, water, and food resource management in the CRB.

scholarly journals Climate change projection of snowfall in the Colorado River Basin using dynamical downscaling

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungwook Wi ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Matej Durcik ◽  
Juan Valdes ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Projection

Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1383-1398 ◽  
Author(s):  
James J. Roberts ◽  
Kurt D. Fausch ◽  
Douglas P. Peterson ◽  
Mevin B. Hooten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Colorado River Basin

scholarly journals “First in Time, First in Right”: Indigenous Self-Determination in the Colorado River Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-175
Author(s):  
Paul Formisano
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Grand Canyon ◽  
Natural World ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Water Access ◽  
Basin Water ◽  
Sacred Lands

This article adopts the premise “first in time, first in right” to bring Indigenous knowledge about the Colorado River Basin and the natural world more broadly out of the mainstream’s obscurity to reposition these perspectives at the foreground of the region’s water cultures. To initiate what is in essence a decolonization of Colorado River Basin water knowledge, I examine texts representing various tribal affiliations and genres to consider how their particular use of story engages the historic and ongoing environmental injustices they have faced and continue to negotiate in their fight to preserve their sacred lands, identity, and access to reliable, clean water. Such a decolonization occurs through these texts’ use of narrative to work within and against the scientific and instrumental discourses and their respective genres that have traditionally constructed and dictated mainstream Colorado River knowledge and activity. My treatment of narrative within the Ten Tribes Partnership Tribal Water Study (2018) and the Grand Canyon Trust’s “Voices of Grand Canyon” digital project (2020) sheds greater light on the essential relationships the Basin’s nations and tribes have with the Colorado River. Through these counternarratives to the West’s dominant water ideologies and cultures, the Basin’s tribal nations draw attention to past and ongoing struggles to secure equitable water access while amplifying their resilience and determination that defines their calls for environmental justice.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin

2004 ◽  
Vol 62 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 337-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niklas S. Christensen ◽  
Andrew W. Wood ◽  
Nathalie Voisin ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier ◽  
Richard N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Hydrology And Water Resources

Evaluation of snow albedo feedback simulated by CMIP6 coupled climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
jiangling hu ◽  
duoying ji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Simulation Research ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
Autumn And Winter

<p>As the land surface warms, a subsequent reduction in snow and ice cover reveals a less reflective surface that absorbs more solar radiation, which further enhances the initial warming. This positive feedback climate mechanism is the snow albedo feedback (SAF), which will exacerbate climate warming and is the second largest contributor to Arctic amplification. Snow albedo feedback will increase the sensitivity of climate change in the northern hemisphere, which affects the accuracy of climate models in simulation research of climate change, and further affects the credibility of future climate prediction results.</p><p>Using the latest generation of climate models from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6), we analyze seasonal cycle snow albedo feedback in Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We find that the strongest SAF strength is in spring (mean: -1.34 %K<sup>-1</sup>), second strongest is autumn (mean: -1.01 %K<sup>-1</sup>), the weakest is in summer (mean: -0.18 %K<sup>-1</sup>). Except summer, the SAF strength is approximately 0.15% K<sup>-1</sup> larger than CMIP5 models in the other three seasons. The spread of spring SAF strength (range: -1.09 to -1.37% K<sup>-1</sup>) is larger than CMIP5 models. Oppositely, the spread of summer SAF strength (range: 0.20 to -0.56% K<sup>-1</sup>) is smaller than CMIP5 models. When compared with CMIP5 models, the spread of autumn and winter SAF strength have not changed much.</p>

scholarly journals CMIP5 Models’ Ability to Capture Observed Trends under the Influence of Shifts and Persistence: An In-Depth Study on the Colorado River Basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 1677-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazi Ali Tamaddun ◽  
Ajay Kalra ◽  
Sanjiv Kumar ◽  
Sajjad Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Before And After

AbstractThis study evaluated the ability of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to capture observed trends under the influence of shifts and persistence in their data distributions. A total of 41 temperature and 25 precipitation CMIP5 simulation models across 22 grid cells (2.5° × 2.5° squares) within the Colorado River basin were analyzed and compared with the Climate Research Unit Time Series (CRU-TS) observed datasets over a study period of 104 years (from 1901 to 2004). Both the modeled simulations and observations were tested for shifts, and the time series before and after the shifts were analyzed separately for trend detection and quantification. Effects of several types of persistence were accounted for prior to both the trend and shift detection tests. The mean significant shift points (SPs) of the CMIP5 temperature models across the grid cells were found to be within a narrower range (between 1957 and 1968) relative to the CRU-TS observed SPs (between 1924 and 1985). Precipitation time series, especially the CRU-TS dataset, had a lack of significant SPs, which led to an inconsistency between the models and observations since the number of grid cells with a significant SP was not comparable. The CMIP5 temperature trends, under the influence of shifts and persistence, were able to match the observed trends very satisfactorily (within the same order of magnitude and consistent direction). Unlike the temperature models, the CMIP5 precipitation models detected SPs that were earlier than the observed SPs found in the CRU-TS data. The direction (as well as the magnitude) of trends, before and after significant shifts, was found to be inconsistent between the modeled simulations and observed precipitation data. Shifts, based on their direction, were found either to strengthen or to neutralize the preexisting trends in both the model simulations and the observations. The results also suggest that the temperature and precipitation data distributions were sensitive to different types of persistence—such sensitivity was found to be consistent between the modeled and observed datasets. The study detected certain biases in the CMIP5 models in detecting the SPs (tendency of detecting shifts earlier for precipitation and later for temperature than the observed shifts) and also in quantifying the trends (overestimating the trend slopes)—such insights may be helpful in evaluating the efficacy of the simulation models in capturing observed trends under uncertainties and natural variabilities.

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