scholarly journals Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Amadio ◽  
Arthur H. Essenfelder ◽  
Stefano Bagli ◽  
Sepehr Marzi ◽  
Paolo Mazzoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
North Adriatic Sea

Abstract. The combined effect of global sea level rise and local subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the coast of the peninsula, although risk of inundation is not uniformly distributed. The low-lying coastal plain of Northeast Italy is the most sensitive to relative sea level changes. Over the last half a century, the entire north-eastern Italian coast has experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of which was land subsidence. In the forthcoming decades, sea level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with extreme sea level scenarios, both under historical conditions and sea level rise projections at 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on two pilot sites located in the North Adriatic Sea along the Emilia-Romagna coast: Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative risk scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage model developed for Italy to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated by means of cost-benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to increased probability of intense flooding in the next future.

scholarly journals Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mixing Gray and Green Infrastructures to Adapt to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10356
Author(s):  
Pham Thi Oanh ◽  
Makoto Tamura ◽  
Naoko Kumano ◽  
Quang Van Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Well Being ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Mekong River Delta

This study evaluated inundation impacts and the economic damage resulting from sea level rise (SLR) in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMRD), and identified the effectiveness of mixing gray and green infrastructures using cost-benefit analysis. The results showed that the VMRD could potentially be heavily affected by SLR. Without the implementation of proper adaptations, more than 90% of this area could be below sea level and nearly 20 million people could be affected by inundation by the end of the 21st century. The total economic damage could reach more than 22,000 billion US$ (2010 real value) by 2100 with no discount rate. These threats may increase the pressure on the region to ensure well-being, equity, and progress towards achieving sustainable development goals. However, achieving these goals will require the implementation of adaptations for upgrading and restoring in the region. This study assessed the effectiveness of adaptations and demonstrated that mixing gray and green infrastructures could benefit coastal inhabitants at a cost of 12 to 19 billion US$.

scholarly journals Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2347-2368 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Torresan ◽  
A. Critto ◽  
J. Rizzi ◽  
A. Marcomini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
The North ◽  
North Adriatic Sea

Abstract. Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

Multiple drivers of extreme sea levels in the northern Adriatic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Ferrarin ◽  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Mirko Orlic ◽  
Fabio Raicich ◽  
Gianfausto Salvadori
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Northern Adriatic Sea ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Northern Adriatic ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Relative Sea Level Rise

<p><span><span>Extreme sea levels at the coast result from the combination of astronomical tides with atmospherically forced fluctuations at multiple time scales. Seiches, river floods, waves, inter-annual and inter-decad</span></span><span><span>al dynamics and relative sea-level rise can also contribute to the total sea level. While tides are usually well described and predicted, the effect of the different atmospheric contributions to the sea level and their trends are still not well understood. Meso-scale atmospheric disturbances, synoptic-scale phenomena and planetary atmospheric waves (PAW) act at different temporal and spatial scales and thus generate sea-level disturbances at different frequencies. In this study, we analyze the 1872-2019 sea-level time series in Venice (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy) to investigate the relative role of the different driving factors in the extreme sea levels distribution. The adopted approach consists in 1) isolating the different contributions to the sea level by applying least-squares fitting and Fourier decomposition; 2) performing a multivariate statistical analysis which enables the dependencies among driving factors and their joint probability of occurrence to be described; 3) analyzing temporal changes in extreme sea levels and extrapolating possible future tendencies. The results highlight the fact that the most extreme sea levels are mainly dominated by the non-tidal residual, while the tide plays a secondary role. The non-tidal residual of the extreme sea levels is attributed mostly to PAW surge and storm surge, with the latter component becoming dominant for the most extreme events. The results of temporal evolution analysis confirm previous studies according to which the relative sea-level rise is the major driver of the increase in the frequency of floods in Venice over the last century. However, also long term variability in the storm activity impacted the frequency and intensity of extreme sea levels and have contributed to an increase of floods in Venice during the fall and winter months of the last three decades.</span></span></p>

Recent measurements of subsidence in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Steckler ◽  
Bar Oryan ◽  
Md. Hasnat Jaman ◽  
Dhiman R. Mondal ◽  
Céline Grall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Active Tectonic ◽  
Relative Sea Level Rise ◽  
Tectonic Boundaries ◽  
The Ganges

<p>Deltas, the low-lying land at rivers mouths, are sensitive to the delicate balance between sea level rise, land subsidence and sedimentation. Bangladesh and the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) have been highlighted as a region at risk from sea level rise, but reliable estimates of land subsidence have been limited. While early studies in the GBD suggested high rates of relative sea level rise, recent papers estimate more modest rates. Our objective is to better quantify the magnitude, spatial variability, and depth variation of compaction and subsidence in the GBD in order to better evaluate the processes controlling it and the pattern of relative sea level rise in this vulnerable region.</p><p>With support from the Bangladesh Water Development Board, we have rehabilitated previously installed GNSS and installed new GNSS co-located with Rod Surface Elevation Tables (RSET) to better understand the balance of subsidence and sedimentation in the coastal zone in SW Bangladesh, which is less affected by the active tectonic boundaries to the north and the east. The continuous GNSSs installed in 2003 and 2012 were mounted on reinforced concrete building roofs. GPS stations in the area yield subsidence rate estimates of 3-7 mm/y.  To densify the subsidence data, in early 2020 we resurveyed 48 concrete Survey of Bangladesh geodetic monuments in SW Bangladesh that were installed in 2002. Although only measured at the start and end of the period, the time span between the two measurements is ~18 years enabling us to estimate subsidence over this timespan.</p><p>Preliminary results show that about ½ the sites yielded very high subsidence rates; repeat measurements confirm the suspicion that the monuments at these sites are unstable and have undergone localized subsidence from settling or anthropogenic activity. The remaining sites show an increase in subsidence from the NW to the SE, consistent with estimates of average Holocene subsidence (Grall et al., 2018). However, rates from the campaign stations are much higher than those from continuous GNSS sites, but only slightly higher than an RSET site. We interpret that the continuous building GNSS omit very shallow compaction-related subsidence, while RSETs neglect deep subsidence. This is further reinforced by results from a compaction meter consisting of 6 wells from 20 to 300 m depth with vertical optical fiber strainmeters in each well. They show a decrease in compaction with depth. While initial results require further investigation, we highlight the importance of multiple methodologies for interpreting subsidence rates--deep, shallow, natural, anthropogenic--in vulnerable delta regions.</p>

Response: The Use of Economic Analysis in Public Policy

1995 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 324-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wim Wiewel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Policy Relevance ◽  
Economic Tools ◽  
The University ◽  
Environment Cost

Morales and colleagues deserve credit for extending traditional economic analysis by using anthropological field data and applying midlevel economic tools to policy analysis. However, their analysis is problematic because it exaggerates how many benefits would be lost if the Maxwell Street Market were moved, ignores the costs imposed by the market, and does not consider the economic benefits of the university's proposed land use. Even very moderate success of the university's plans will more than compensate for the economic losses caused by the market's move. It was politically impossible for the university to implement its expansion plans while maintaining the market. Such difficult choices inevitably arise in a complex urban environment. Cost-benefit analysis is a useful tool, but provides only some of the information that enters into the decision-making process. Thus analysts must be modest in the claims they make for the policy relevance of their data.

Assessing North Korean Nuclear Intentions and Capacities: A New Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques E. C. Hymans
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
New Approach ◽  
The North ◽  
Technical Capacity ◽  
Measured Response

This article develops a novel assessment of the nuclear program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Using a theory-driven approach rooted in comparative foreign policy analysis, the article undermines two common assumptions about the DPRK nuclear threat: first, that the North Korean leadership's nuclear intentions are a measured response to the external environment and, second, that the DPRK has developed enough technical capacity to go nuclear whenever it pleases. In place of these assumptions, the article puts forth the general theoretical hypotheses that (1) the decision to go nuclear is rarely if ever based on typical cost-benefit analysis, and instead reflects deep-seated national identity conceptions, and (2) the capacity to go nuclear depends not only on raw levels of industrialization and nuclear technology, but also on the state's organizational acumen. Applied to the case of the DPRK, these hypotheses suggest that it has long been strongly committed to the goal of acquiring an operational nuclear deterrent, but also that it has been finding it very difficult to successfully implement that wish. The article also demonstrates that these hypotheses are supported by the meager evidence available on this case.

scholarly journals On the evolution of the Hedbergellidae from the Praehedbergellidae

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. Boudagher-Fadel ◽  
F. T. Banner ◽  
T. N. Gorbachik ◽  
M. D. Simmons ◽  
J. E. Whittaker
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Type Species ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Cosmopolitan Species ◽  
The North ◽  
Relative Sea Level Rise ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. In order to establish the relationship between the smooth, microperforate praehedbergellid forms of the genus Blefuscuiana with the younger, macroperforate and muricate forms typical of Hedbergella, two similar taxa but with the different characters of the two genera, are studied here: Blefuscuiana praetrocoidea (Kretchmar & Gorbachik) and its descendant Hedbergella trocoidea (Gandolfi), the type species of Hedbergella, and which typifies the Hedbergellidae.B. praetrocoidea was only found in the Early Aptian in the North Tethys. H. trocoidea ranges from the Late Aptian to Early Albian (?M. Albian) and is a cosmopolitan species. It evolves into Ticinella roberti (Gandolfi), a Late Aptian–Albian species with fused portici. The evolution of the Praehedbergellidae into the Hedbergellidae appears to be related to a relative sea-level rise in the Late Aptian and Albian (and the opening of the Proto-Atlantic) which provided a number of deep-water niches which the Hedbergellidae occupied.

scholarly journals A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the COVID-19 Asymptomatic Mass Testing Strategy in the North Metropolitan Area of Barcelona

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 7028
Author(s):  
Francesc López Seguí ◽  
Oriol Estrada Cuxart ◽  
Oriol Mitjà i Villar ◽  
Guillem Hernández Guillamet ◽  
Núria Prat Gil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Screening ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Benefit Cost Ratio ◽  
The North ◽  
Efficient Management

Background: The epidemiological situation generated by COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of applying non-pharmacological measures in the management of the epidemic. Mass screening of the asymptomatic general population has been established as a priority strategy by carrying out diagnostic tests to detect possible cases, isolate contacts, cut transmission chains and thus limit the spread of the virus. Objective: To evaluate the economic impact of mass COVID-19 screenings of an asymptomatic population during the first and second wave of the epidemic in Catalonia, Spain. Methodology: Cost-Benefit Analysis based on the estimated total costs of mass screening versus health gains and associated health costs avoided. Results: Excluding the value of monetized health, the Benefit-Cost ratio was estimated at 0.45, a low value that would seem to advise against mass screening policies. However, if monetized health is included, the ratio is close to 1.20, reversing the interpretation. In other words, the monetization of health is the critical element that tips the scales in favour of the desirability of screening. Results show that the interventions with the highest return are those that maximize the percentage of positives detected. Conclusion: Efficient management of resources for the policy of mass screening in asymptomatic populations can generate high social returns. The positivity rate critically determines its desirability. Likewise, precocity in the detection of cases will cut more transmissions in the chain of contagion and increase the economic return of these interventions. Maximizing the value of resources depends on screening strategies being accompanied by contact-tracing and specific in their focus, targeting, for example, high-risk subpopulations with the highest rate of expected positives.

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