scholarly journals Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 4349-4387
Author(s):  
S. Nussbaumer ◽  
C. Huggel ◽  
Y. Schaub ◽  
A. Walz
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Formation

Abstract. Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing risk of landslides which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available. It is actually a challenge to develop methods to evaluate both, future hazard potential and future damage potential. Here we present an analysis of future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To estimate two hazard scenarios, we used glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling, simple flood modelling and field work. Further we developed a land-use model to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for a time period of 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study corroborates the importance of land-use planning to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.

scholarly journals Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1611-1624 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Nussbaumer ◽  
Y. Schaub ◽  
C. Huggel ◽  
A. Walz
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Formation

Abstract. Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential. Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.

scholarly journals Riesgo de crecida por rompimiento de diques de hielo en la cuenca del plomo, Andes Centrales (33º S): perspectivas a partir de eventos históricos

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Correas-Gonzalez ◽  
S.M. Moreiras ◽  
V. Jomelli ◽  
G. Arnaud-Fassetta
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Land Usage ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Proglacial Lakes ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Socio Economic Impact

High mountain regions are extremely sensitive to current climate change affecting natural processes and related hazards (i.e. glacier retreat, slope instability, formation and enlargement of proglacial lakes). Ice-Dammed Lake Outburst Floods (IDLOFs) are highlighted among these phenomena and reach a greater socio-economic impact due to their highly destructive power. Facing on forecasting of more frequency and intensity of dangerous events, risk analysis of communities exposed is required. The purpose of this research was to assess the hazard, vulnerability, and risk against IDLOF in the Plomo and Mendoza valleys in current scenarios. We analyze historical IDLOF events occurred in the Plomo River that was dammed at least three times by surges of the Grande del Nevado del Plomo glacier (GNP) generating six outburst floods in the 1788 - 2018 period. Almost one century after the most catastrophic event in 1934, many changes in land usage and occupation along the Mendoza valley have occurred, exposing new vulnerable elements to natural hazards in this area. Our findings show a greater risk mainly due to higher vulnerability as a consequence of higher habitat exposition associated with increasing tourist activity and land-use changes. This fact exposes an urgent necessity of land-use planning in Andean regions.

scholarly journals Analysis of Land Use Changes and Driving Forces in the Yanhe River Basin from 1980 to 2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Zhihong Yao ◽  
Bo Wang ◽  
Jie Huang ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Jianchen Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Gis Technology

Based on the support of RS and GIS technology, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and driving forces of land use in the Yanhe River Basin through the processing and interpretation of remote sensing images in different periods from 1980 to 2015 and the methods of the land use transfer matrix and dynamic attitude. The results show that cropland, grassland, and forest land are the three types of land use with the most obvious changes, while urban land and water body have relatively small changes in the Yanhe River Basin. The transfer between cropland, forest land, and grassland and urban land is very obvious, among which the conversion rate of cropland is the highest. During the 15 years from 2000 to 2015, the land use types of the Yanhe River Basin changed by 13.17%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.88%. The implementation of ecological restoration and governance policy is the direct driving force of land use change in the Yanhe River Basin. The results obtained in this study can provide reference basis for land use planning and management and land use structure optimization in the Yanhe River Basin in the future.

Reconnaissance Mapping for Land-use Planning in the Natal Drakensberg, South Africa

1977 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald G. Garland ◽  
J. Pelham Chisholm ◽  
Colin R. Christian
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Land Use Pattern ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Reconnaissance Survey ◽  
Adequate Understanding ◽  
Geomorphological Processes ◽  
Detailed Work

Changes in land-use can have an important effect on rates of erosion and denudation. In order to avoid accelerating erosion rates, decision makers in land-use planning require adequate information on the contemporary geomorphological processes and hydrology of areas where modifications in the land-use pattern are envisaged. The first phase in the acquisition of the information is the reconnaissance survey, which shows where and how the erosional status of an area is likely to be affected, and also acts as a foundation on which to base more detailed work in the future.The Solitude area is an active erosional system, dominated by mass movement and fluvial processes. The rate of removal of material is likely to be increased by modifications in land-use which, from other points of view, would be considered entirely suitable for the area. Therefore, if accelerated denudation is to be avoided, projects involving land-use changes should be implemented only by those having an adequate understanding of the mechanism of geomorphological processes operating in the area.

Land use changes, landscape ecology and their socioeconomic driving forces in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (El Maresme County, 1850–2005)

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 120-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lluís Parcerisas ◽  
Joan Marull ◽  
Joan Pino ◽  
Enric Tello ◽  
Francesc Coll ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landscape Ecology ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Mediterranean Coast

scholarly journals ARAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DAN PERENCANAAN KONSERVASI TANAH DAN AIR DI DAS YEH EMPAS, TABANAN, BALI

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
I Gusti Agung Lanang Widyantara ◽  
I Nyoman Merit ◽  
I Wayan Sandi Adnyana
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Research Area ◽  
High Density ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Erosion Prediction ◽  
Slope Factor

Damage to forest resources has caused the environmental balance of watersheds (DAS) becomes damaged. It often causes the result of high levels of erosion. One of the land use changes that are currently happening is in Yeh Empas watershed. With this research can be known the proposed land use and appropriate land use planning on Yeh Empas watershed. Erosion prediction using the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) method is to estimate how much the rate of erosion is happening and also to get an idea how good land management actions for the region. The proposed land use determination is using the scoring method by combining the slope factor of the field, the soil sensitivity of erosion, and the intensity of daily rainfall. Soil sampling was done by taking soil samples from a total of 11 samples of soil from the land unit. This research conducted to estimate the rate of erosion, to determines how much erosion can be tolerated in Yeh Empas watershed, and its relationship with the factors that influence it, as well as to determine the proposed of land use. The results of erosion prediction on each unit of land in the research area ranged from 1.75 to 1,254.96 tons/ha/year and has a grade level of erosion from slight to very severe. The result of tolerated erosion ranged from 15.06 to 24.32 tons/ha/year. The value of erosion prediction that exceeded from tolerated erosion value occurs on land units 7, 8, and 9. On that land units required proposed of land use and soil conservation techniques so that the value of erosion prediction could be below from tolerated erosion value. The analysis results of the proposed land use in Yeh Empas watershed, for areas inside the forest is proposed to protected forest (land units 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) and the management is by planting plants that are adapted to the contour lines of slope. In the areas outside the forest is proposed for annual crop cultivation area (land units 7, 8, and 9)the management with the farming plantation development, high density growing crops and terracing and also for crops cultivation area (land units 10 and 11) management by mulching, cover soil with high density and terracing.

scholarly journals Integrating Land-Use and Renewable Energy Planning Decisions: A Technical Mapping Guide for Local Government

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 324
Author(s):  
Jiaao Guo ◽  
Victoria Fast ◽  
Philip Teri ◽  
Kirby Calvert
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Planning Decisions ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
Utility Scale

Land-based, utility-scale renewable energy (RE) systems using wind or solar resources to generate electricity is becoming a decisive solution to meet long-term carbon emission reduction goals. Local governments are responding in kind, by adopting their own goals and/or establishing policies to facilitate successful implementations of RE in their jurisdiction. One factor to successful RE development is to locate the most suitable lands, while continuing to sustain land-based economies and ecosystem services. Local governments often have limited resources; and this is especially true for small, land-constrained local governments. In this paper, we illustrate how a standardized RE technical mapping framework can be used by local governments to advance the implementation of RE in land-constrained areas, through a case study in the Town of Canmore, Alberta. Canmore has a limited municipal area surrounded by the Canadian Rockies, along with complex land-use bylaw and environmentally sensitive habitats. This mapping framework accounts for these conditions as it considers theoretical resources, technically recoverable lands, legally accessible lands, and the spatial capital cost of connecting new RE facilities. Different land-use planning scenarios are considered including changing setback buffers and expanding restrictions on development to all environmentally sensitive districts. The total RE potentials are then estimated based on the least-conflict lands. Technically speaking, even under restrictive land suitability scenarios, Canmore holds enough land to achieve ambitious RE targets, but opportunities and challenges to implementation remain. To eventually succeed in its long-term emission reduction goal, the most decisive step for Canmore is to balance the growth of energy demands, land-use changes, and practicable RE development. Mapping systems that can study the influence of land-use planning decisions on RE potential are critical to achieving this balance.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Variation Analysis of Landscape Pattern Response to Land Use Change from 1985 to 2015 in Xuzhou City, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yantao Xi ◽  
Nguyen Thinh ◽  
Cheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landscape Pattern ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landscape Patterns ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Barren Land

Rapid urbanization has dramatically spurred economic development since the 1980s, especially in China, but has had negative impacts on natural resources since it is an irreversible process. Thus, timely monitoring and quantitative analysis of the changes in land use over time and identification of landscape pattern variation related to growth modes in different periods are essential. This study aimed to inspect spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape pattern responses to land use changes in Xuzhou, China durfing the period of 1985–2015. In this context, we propose a new spectral index, called the Normalized Difference Enhanced Urban Index (NDEUI), which combines Nighttime light from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System with annual maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index to reduce the detection confusion between urban areas and barren land. The NDEUI-assisted random forests algorithm was implemented to obtain the land use/land cover maps of Xuzhou in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, respectively. Four different periods (1985–1995, 1995–2005, 2005–2015, and 1985–2015) were chosen for the change analysis of land use and landscape patterns. The results indicate that the urban area has increased by about 30.65%, 10.54%, 68.77%, and 143.75% during the four periods at the main expense of agricultural land, respectively. The spatial trend maps revealed that continuous transition from other land use types into urban land has occurred in a dual-core development mode throughout the urbanization process. We quantified the patch complexity, aggregation, connectivity, and diversity of the landscape, employing a number of landscape metrics to represent the changes in landscape patterns at both the class and landscape levels. The results show that with respect to the four aspects of landscape patterns, there were considerable differences among the four years, mainly owing to the increasing dominance of urbanized land. Spatiotemporal variation in landscape patterns was examined based on 900 × 900 m sub-grids. Combined with the land use changes and spatiotemporal variations in landscape patterns, urban growth mainly occurred in a leapfrog mode along both sides of the roads during the period of 1985 to 1995, and then shifted into edge-expansion mode during the period of 1995 to 2005, and the edge-expansion and leapfrog modes coexisted in the period from 2005 to 2015. The high value spatiotemporal information generated using remote sensing and geographic information system in this study could assist urban planners and policymakers to better understand urban dynamics and evaluate their spatiotemporal and environmental impacts at the local level to enable sustainable urban planning in the future.

scholarly journals Estimating Recreation Values Associated With Land Use Changes

1979 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-102
Author(s):  
Wesley N. Musser ◽  
Rod F. Ziemer
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Natural Resource Economics ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Private Property Rights ◽  
Classic Problem ◽  
Wildlife Recreation

Achieving optimal use of wildlife resources is a classic problem in natural resource economics. Ciriacy-Wantrup argued that wildlife resources are a case of a fugitive resource for which private property rights cannot easily be defined and therefore government policy may be necessary to obtain optimal use [5, pp. 141–145]. Land use planning is one area of government policy in which limited attention has been given to management of wildlife resources. One reason for the neglect may be the lack of emphasis on estimating the value of wildlife recreation experiences associated with particular land uses. An exception is the work of Martin, Tinney, and Gum [16] who did not look at marginal land use changes but did consider the termination of all cattle ranching in Arizona and its effect on recreational and agricultural economic surpluses.

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