scholarly journals An experimental study of the Atlantic variability on interdecadal timescales

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Vincze ◽  
I. M. Jánosi ◽  
E. Barsy ◽  
T. Tél ◽  
A. Várai
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Thermal Noise ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Sector Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Frequency Variability

Abstract. A series of laboratory experiments has been carried out to model the basic dynamics of the multidecadal variability observed in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) records. According to the minimal numerical sector model introduced by te Raa and Dijkstra (2002), the three key components to excite such a low-frequency variability are rotation, meridional temperature gradient and additive thermal noise in the surface heat forcing. If these components are present, periodic perturbations of the overturning background flow are excited, leading to thermal Rossby mode like propagation of anomalous patches in the SST field. Our tabletop scale setup was built to capture this phenomenon, and to test whether the aforementioned three components are indeed sufficient to generate a low-frequency variability in the system. The results are compared to those of the numerical models, as well as to oceanic SST reanalysis records. To the best of our knowledge, the experiment described here is the very first to investigate the dynamics of the North Atlantic multidecadal variability in a laboratory-scale setup.

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts Initiated by Ocean Thermohaline Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1317-1334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Who M. Kim ◽  
Stephen Yeager ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractThe sea surface temperature (SST) signature of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a key driver of climate variability in surrounding regions. Low-frequency Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is often invoked as a key driving mechanism of AMV-related SST anomalies. However, the origins of both AMV and multidecadal AMOC variability remain areas of active research and debate. Here, using coupled ensemble experiments designed to isolate the climate response to buoyancy forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Labrador Sea, we show that ocean dynamical changes are the essential drivers of AMV and related climate impacts. Atmospheric teleconnections also play an important role in rendering the full AMV pattern by transmitting the ocean-driven subpolar SST signal into the rest of the basin, including the tropical North Atlantic. As such, the atmosphere response to the tropical AMV in our experiments is limited to a relatively small area in the Atlantic sector in summertime, suggesting that it could be overestimated in widely adopted protocols for AMV pacemaker experiments.

scholarly journals Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 415-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. T. Sutton ◽  
G. D. McCarthy ◽  
J. Robson ◽  
B. Sinha ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Holistic Understanding ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterized by decades of basinwide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and consequently AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here, we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new U.K. research program: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the United Kingdom’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.

scholarly journals Ocean–Atmosphere Influences on Low-Frequency Warm-Season Drought Variability in the Gulf Coast and Southeastern United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1177-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason T. Ortegren ◽  
Paul A. Knapp ◽  
Justin T. Maxwell ◽  
William P. Tyminski ◽  
Peter T. Soulé
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Drought Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractFrom the 344 state climate divisions in the conterminous United States, nine distinct regions of warm-season drought variability are identified using principal component analysis. The drought metric used is the Palmer hydrological drought index for the period 1895–2008. The focus of this paper is multidecadal drought variability in the Southeast (SEUS) and eastern Gulf South (EGS) regions of the United States, areas in which the low-frequency forcing mechanisms of warm-season drought are still poorly understood. Low-frequency drought variability in the SEUS and EGS is associated with smoothed indexed time series of major ocean–atmosphere circulation features, including two indices of spatiotemporal variability in the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone (Bermuda high). Long-term warm-season drought conditions are significantly out of phase between the two regions. Multidecadal regimes of above- and below-average moisture in the SEUS and EGS are closely associated with slow variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and with the summer mean position and mean strength of the Bermuda high. Multivariate linear regression indicates that 82%–92% of the low-frequency variability in warm-season moisture is explained by two of the three leading principal components of low-frequency variability in the climate indices. The findings are important for water resource managers and water-intensive industries in the SEUS and EGS. The associations identified in the paper are valuable for enhanced drought preparedness and forecasting in the study area and potentially for global models of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5491-5512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Drews ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Supply ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Eastern Side ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

This article investigates the dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of the results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, anomalous heat supply by the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean anomalously gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being anomalously removed from the eastern side by the ocean, leading to a reduced ocean heat content, behavior associated with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland that travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Seas, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.

scholarly journals Changes of decadal SST Variations in the subpolar North Atlantic under strong CO2 forcing as an indicator for the ocean circulation’s contribution to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Hand ◽  
Jürgen Bader ◽  
Daniela Matei ◽  
Rohit Ghosch ◽  
Johann Jungclaus
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Co2 Forcing

<p>The question, whether ocean dynamics are relevant for basin-scale North Atlantic decadal temperature variability is subject of ongoing discussions. Here, we analyze a set of simulations with a single climate model, consisting of a 2000-year pre-industrial control experiment, a 100-member historical ensemble, and a 100-member ensemble forced with an incremental CO2 increase by 1%/year. Compared to previous approaches, our setup offers the following advantages: First, the large ensemble size allows to robustly separate internally and externally forced variability and to robustly detect statistical links between different quantities. Second, the availability of different scenarios allows to investigate the role of the background state for drivers of the<br>variability. We find strong evidence that ocean dynamics, particularly ocean heat transport variations, form an important contribution to generate the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI- ESM). Particularly the Northwest North Atlantic is substantially affected by ocean circulation for the historical and pre-industrial simulations. Anomalies of the Labrador Sea deep ocean density precede a change of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and heat advection to the region south of Greenland.<br>Under strong CO2 forcing the AMV-SST regression pattern shows crucial changes: SST variability in the north western part of the North Atlantic is strongly reduced, so that the AMV pattern in this scenario is dominated by the low-latitude branch. We found a connection to changes in the deep water formation, that cause a strong reduction of the mean AMOC and its variability. Consequently, ocean heat transport convergence becomes less important for the SST variability south of Greenland.</p>

scholarly journals A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1461-1475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panos J. Athanasiadis ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Leon Hermanson ◽  
Stefano Materia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

Abstract Significant predictive skill for the mean winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been recently reported for a number of different seasonal forecasting systems. These findings are important in exploring the predictability of the natural system, but they are also important from a socioeconomic point of view, since the ability to predict the wintertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic well ahead in time will have significant benefits for North American and European countries. In contrast to the tropics, for the mid latitudes the predictive skill of many forecasting systems at the seasonal time scale has been shown to be low to moderate. The recent findings are promising in this regard, suggesting that better forecasts are possible, provided that key components of the climate system are initialized realistically and the coupled models are able to simulate adequately the dominant processes and teleconnections associated with low-frequency variability. It is shown that a multisystem approach has unprecedented high predictive skill for the NAO and AO, probably largely due to increasing the ensemble size and partly due to increasing model diversity. Predicting successfully the winter mean NAO does not ensure that the respective climate anomalies are also well predicted. The NAO has a strong impact on Europe and North America, yet it only explains part of the interannual and low-frequency variability over these areas. Here it is shown with a number of different diagnostics that the high predictive skill for the NAO/AO indeed translates to more accurate predictions of temperature, surface pressure, and precipitation in the areas of influence of this teleconnection.

scholarly journals Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3679-3700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohan Ruprich-Robert ◽  
Thomas Delworth ◽  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Frederic Castruccio ◽  
Stephen Yeager ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North American ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Southern United States ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Northern Mexico ◽  
The North ◽  
North American Climate

The impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on summertime North American climate are investigated using three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to observed AMV anomalies. Large ensemble simulations are performed to estimate how AMV can modulate the occurrence of extreme weather such as heat waves. It is shown that, in response to an AMV warming, all models simulate a precipitation deficit and a warming over northern Mexico and the southern United States that lead to an increased number of heat wave days by about 30% compared to an AMV cooling. The physical mechanisms associated with these impacts are discussed. The positive tropical Atlantic SST anomalies associated with the warm AMV drive a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response that favors subsidence over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This leads to a warming of the whole tropospheric column, and to a decrease in relative humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation. Soil moisture response to AMV also plays a role in the modulation of heat wave occurrence. An AMV warming favors dry soil conditions over northern Mexico and the southern United States by driving a year-round precipitation deficit through atmospheric teleconnections coming both directly from the North Atlantic SST forcing and indirectly from the Pacific. The indirect AMV teleconnections highlight the importance of using CGCMs to fully assess the AMV impacts on North America. Given the potential predictability of the AMV, the teleconnections discussed here suggest a source of predictability for the North American climate variability and in particular for the occurrence of heat waves at multiyear time scales.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document