scholarly journals Scaling of instability timescales of Antarctic outlet glaciers based on one-dimensional similitude analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1621-1633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Johannes Feldmann
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
The One ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Made In

Abstract. Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during at least the last 2 decades. While other regions in Antarctica have the topographic predisposition for the same kind of instability, it is so far unclear how fast these instabilities would unfold if they were initiated. Here we employ the concept of similitude to estimate the characteristic timescales of several potentially MISI-prone outlet glaciers around the Antarctic coast. Our results suggest that TG and PIG have the fastest response time of all investigated outlets, with TG responding about 1.25 to 2 times as fast as PIG, while other outlets around Antarctica would be up to 10 times slower if destabilized. These results have to be viewed in light of the strong assumptions made in their derivation. These include the absence of ice-shelf buttressing, the one-dimensionality of the approach and the uncertainty of the available data. We argue however that the current topographic situation and the physical conditions of the MISI-prone outlet glaciers carry the information of their respective timescale and that this information can be partially extracted through a similitude analysis.

scholarly journals Scaling of instability time-scales of Antarctic outlet glaciers based on one-dimensional similitude analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Johannes Feldmann
Keyword(s):  
Dimensional Analysis ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Scaling Analysis ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Fast Ice ◽  
The One

Abstract. Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during at least the last two decades. While other regions in Antarctica have the topographic predisposition for the same kind of instability it is so far unclear how fast these instabilities would unfold if they were initiated. Here we employ the concept of similitude to estimate the characteristic time scales of several potentially MISI-prone outlet glaciers around the Antarctic coast. The proposed one-dimensional scaling approach combines observational and model data with a scaling analysis of the governing equations for fast ice flow. Evaluating outlet-characteristic ice and bed geometry, surface mass balance and basal friction in the relevant region near the grounding line, we assume that the inferred time scales correspond to the outlet-specific initial responses time to potential destabilization. Our results suggest that TG and PIG have the fastest responses time of all investigated outlets, with TG responding about 1.25 to 2 times as fast as PIG, while other outlets around Antarctica would be up to ten times slower if destabilized. These results have to be viewed in light of the strong assumptions made in their derivation. These include the absence of ice-shelf buttressing, the one-dimensionality of the approach and the uncertainty of the available data, meaning strong caveats of the approach. We argue however that the current topographic situation and the physical conditions of the MISI-prone outlet glaciers carry the information of their respective time scale and that this information can be partially extracted through a similitude analysis. The one-dimensional analysis is only a first step. Whether a two-dimensional analysis is possible is beyond the scope of this study.

scholarly journals Multidecadal observations of the Antarctic ice sheet from restored analog radar records

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (38) ◽  
pp. 18867-18873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dustin M. Schroeder ◽  
Julian A. Dowdeswell ◽  
Martin J. Siegert ◽  
Robert G. Bingham ◽  
Winnie Chu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
Optical Film ◽  
Polar Ice Sheets ◽  
Scientific Potential ◽  
Radar Measurements ◽  
The Antarctic

Airborne radar sounding can measure conditions within and beneath polar ice sheets. In Antarctica, most digital radar-sounding data have been collected in the last 2 decades, limiting our ability to understand processes that govern longer-term ice-sheet behavior. Here, we demonstrate how analog radar data collected over 40 y ago in Antarctica can be combined with modern records to quantify multidecadal changes. Specifically, we digitize over 400,000 line kilometers of exploratory Antarctic radar data originally recorded on 35-mm optical film between 1971 and 1979. We leverage the increased geometric and radiometric resolution of our digitization process to show how these data can be used to identify and investigate hydrologic, geologic, and topographic features beneath and within the ice sheet. To highlight their scientific potential, we compare the digitized data with contemporary radar measurements to reveal that the remnant eastern ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica had thinned between 10 and 33% between 1978 and 2009. We also release the collection of scanned radargrams in their entirety in a persistent public archive along with updated geolocation data for a subset of the data that reduces the mean positioning error from 5 to 2.5 km. Together, these data represent a unique and renewed extensive, multidecadal historical baseline, critical for observing and modeling ice-sheet change on societally relevant timescales.

scholarly journals Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1844) ◽  
pp. 1637-1655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Rignot
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1 m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 °C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

Effect of Improved Bedrock Geometry on Antarctic Vulnerability to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Martin ◽  
Stephen Cornford ◽  
Esmond Ng
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mass Conservation ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is vulnerable to the thinning or even the collapse of its floating ice shelves, which tend to buttress ice streams. Any reduction in buttressing results in acceleration and thinning upstream and potentially the onset of Marine Ice Sheet Instability. Recent work demonstrates that West Antarctica is vulnerable to sustained disintegration in any of its major marine outlets, resulting in 2-3 m sea level rise over 1000 years. At the same time regions in East Antarctica are vulnerable only to the loss of local ice shelves. However, most of this work has used the Bedmap2 dataset as a starting point. Since the release of Bedmap2 in 2012, there has been a sustained campaign of observations, along with improved interpolation techniques based on mass conservation. The resulting datasets, including the recently released BedMachine dataset, incorporate much-improved bedrock and thickness data compared to what was available in Bedmap2. </p><p>We reproduce our previous examination of the millennial-scale vulnerability of the AIS to the loss of its shelves to examine the effect of this improvement on projected Antarctic vulnerability, paying special attention to regions like the Aurora Basin which were under-constrained in Bedmap2.</p>

scholarly journals Mechanical analysis of pinning points in the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (78) ◽  
pp. 32-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly Still ◽  
Adam Campbell ◽  
Christina Hulbe
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mechanical Analysis ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
The Antarctic

ABSTRACTIce shelves regulate the rate of ice-sheet discharge along much of the Antarctic coastline. Pinning points, sites of localised grounding within floating ice, can in turn, regulate the flow and thickness of an ice shelf. While the net resistive effect of ice shelves has been quantified in a systematic way, few extant pinning points have been examined in detail. Here, complete force budgets are calculated and examined for ice rises and rumples in the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. The diverse features have different effects on ice shelf mechanics that do not depend simply on their size but may, we conclude, depend on the properties of seafloor materials.

scholarly journals A Joint Inversion Estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Balance Using Multi-Geodetic Data Sets

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunchun Gao ◽  
Yang Lu ◽  
Zizhan Zhang ◽  
Hongling Shi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Forward Models ◽  
Uplift Rates ◽  
The Antarctic

Many recent mass balance estimates using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and satellite altimetry (including two kinds of sensors of radar and laser) show that the ice mass of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is in overall decline. However, there are still large differences among previously published estimates of the total mass change, even in the same observed periods. The considerable error sources mainly arise from the forward models (e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment [GIA] and firn compaction) that may be uncertain but indispensable to simulate some processes not directly measured or obtained by these observations. To minimize the use of these forward models, we estimate the mass change of ice sheet and present-day GIA using multi-geodetic observations, including GRACE and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), as well as Global Positioning System (GPS), by an improved method of joint inversion estimate (JIE), which enables us to solve simultaneously for the Antarctic GIA and ice mass trends. The GIA uplift rates generated from our JIE method show a good agreement with the elastic-corrected GPS uplift rates, and the total GIA-induced mass change estimate for the AIS is 54 ± 27 Gt/yr, which is in line with many recent GPS calibrated GIA estimates. Our GIA result displays the presence of significant uplift rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, where strong uplift has been observed by GPS. Over the period February 2003 to October 2009, the entire AIS changed in mass by −84 ± 31 Gt/yr (West Antarctica: −69 ± 24, East Antarctica: 12 ± 16 and the Antarctic Peninsula: −27 ± 8), greater than the GRACE-only estimates obtained from three Mascon solutions (CSR: −50 ± 30, JPL: −71 ± 30, and GSFC: −51 ± 33 Gt/yr) for the same period. This may imply that single GRACE data tend to underestimate ice mass loss due to the signal leakage and attenuation errors of ice discharge are often worse than that of surface mass balance over the AIS.

scholarly journals Post-liquefaction reconsolidation of sand

2016 ◽  
Vol 472 (2186) ◽  
pp. 20150745 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Adamidis ◽  
G. S. P. Madabhushi
Keyword(s):  
Void Ratio ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Geotechnical Centrifuge ◽  
Significant Damage ◽  
Pore Water Pressures ◽  
The One ◽  
Crucial Parameter ◽  
Excess Pore ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Made In

Loosely packed sand that is saturated with water can liquefy during an earthquake, potentially causing significant damage. Once the shaking is over, the excess pore water pressures that developed during the earthquake gradually dissipate, while the surface of the soil settles, in a process called post-liquefaction reconsolidation. When examining reconsolidation, the soil is typically divided in liquefied and solidified parts, which are modelled separately. The aim of this paper is to show that this fragmentation is not necessary. By assuming that the hydraulic conductivity and the one-dimensional stiffness of liquefied sand have real, positive values, the equation of consolidation can be numerically solved throughout a reconsolidating layer. Predictions made in this manner show good agreement with geotechnical centrifuge experiments. It is shown that the variation of one-dimensional stiffness with effective stress and void ratio is the most crucial parameter in accurately capturing reconsolidation.

Antarctic ice sheet response to upper-bound scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sainan Sun ◽  
Frank Pattyn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Basal Sliding ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet contributes the largest uncertainty of future sea-level rise projections. Ice-sheet model predictions are limited by uncertainties in climate forcing and poor understanding of processes such as ice viscosity. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) has investigated the 'end-member' scenario, i.e., a total and sustained removal of buttressing from all Antarctic ice shelves, which can be regarded as the upper-bound physical possible, but implausible contribution of sea-level rise due to ice-shelf loss. In this study, we add successive layers of ‘realism’ to the ABUMIP scenario by considering sustained regional ice-shelf collapse and by introducing ice-shelf regrowth after collapse with the inclusion of ice-sheet and ice-shelf damage (Sun et al., 2017). Ice shelf regrowth has the ability to stabilize grounding lines, while ice shelf damage may reinforce ice loss. In combination with uncertainties from basal sliding and ice rheology, a more realistic physical upperbound to ice loss is sought. Results are compared in the light of other proposed mechanisms, such as MICI due to ice cliff collapse.</p>

scholarly journals Melting and freezing under Antarctic ice shelves from a combination of ice-sheet modelling and observations

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (240) ◽  
pp. 731-744 ◽  
Author(s):  
JORGE BERNALES ◽  
IRINA ROGOZHINA ◽  
MAIK THOMAS
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic

ABSTRACTIce-shelf basal melting is the largest contributor to the negative mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, current implementations of ice/ocean interactions in ice-sheet models disagree with the distribution of sub-shelf melt and freezing rates revealed by recent observational studies. Here we present a novel combination of a continental-scale ice flow model and a calibration technique to derive the spatial distribution of basal melting and freezing rates for the whole Antarctic ice-shelf system. The modelled ice-sheet equilibrium state is evaluated against topographic and velocity observations. Our high-resolution (10-km spacing) simulation predicts an equilibrium ice-shelf basal mass balance of −1648.7 Gt a−1 that increases to −1917.0 Gt a−1 when the observed ice-shelf thinning rates are taken into account. Our estimates reproduce the complexity of the basal mass balance of Antarctic ice shelves, providing a reference for parameterisations of sub-shelf ocean/ice interactions in continental ice-sheet models. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of variations in the model set-up, showing that the retrieved estimates of basal melting and freezing rates are largely insensitive to changes in the internal model parameters, but respond strongly to a reduction of model resolution and the uncertainty in the input datasets.

scholarly journals Antarctic Ice-Sheet Volume at 18000 Years B.P. and Holocene Sea-Level Changes at the West Antarctic Margin

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 213-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Lingle ◽  
James A. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractThe Antarctic ice sheet has been reconstructed at 18000 years b.p. by Hughes and others (in press) using an ice-flow model. The volume of the portion of this reconstruction which contributed to a rise of post-glacial eustatic sea-level has been calculated and found to be (9.8±1.5) × 106 km3. This volume is equivalent to 25±4 m of eustatic sea-level rise, defined as the volume of water added to the ocean divided by ocean area. The total volume of the reconstructed Antarctic ice sheet was found to be (37±6) × 106 km3. If the results of Hughes and others are correct, Antarctica was the second largest contributor to post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise after the Laurentide ice sheet. The Farrell and Clark (1976) model for computation of the relative sea-level changes caused by changes in ice and water loading on a visco-elastic Earth has been applied to the ice-sheet reconstruction, and the results have been combined with the changes in relative sea-level caused by Northern Hemisphere deglaciation as previously calculated by Clark and others (1978). Three families of curves have been compiled, showing calculated relative sea-level change at different times near the margin of the possibly unstable West Antarctic ice sheet in the Ross Sea, Pine Island Bay, and the Weddell Sea. The curves suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet remained grounded to the edge of the continental shelf until c. 13000 years b.p., when the rate of sea-level rise due to northern ice disintegration became sufficient to dominate emergence near the margin predicted otherwise to have been caused by shrinkage of the Antarctic ice mass. In addition, the curves suggest that falling relative sea-levels played a significant role in slowing and, perhaps, reversing retreat when grounding lines approached their present positions in the Ross and Weddell Seas. A predicted fall of relative sea-level beneath the central Ross Ice Shelf of as much as 23 m during the past 2000 years is found to be compatible with recent field evidence that the ice shelf is thickening in the south-east quadrant.

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