scholarly journals Comparing ice discharge through West Antarctic Gateways: Weddell vs. Amundsen Sea warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1705-1733 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Martin ◽  
A. Levermann ◽  
R. Winkelmann
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Back Stress ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Function Type ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. Future changes in Antarctic ice discharge will be largely controlled by the fate of the floating ice shelves, which exert a back-stress onto Antarctica's marine outlet glaciers. Ice loss in response to warming of the Amundsen Sea has been observed and investigated as a potential trigger for the marine ice-sheet instability. Recent observations and simulations suggest that the Amundsen Sea Sector might already be unstable which would have strong implications for global sea-level rise. At the same time, regional ocean projections show much stronger warm-water intrusion into ice-shelf cavities in the Weddell Sea compared to the observed Amundsen warming. Here we present results of numerical ice sheet modelling with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) which show that idealized, step-function type ocean warming in the Weddell Sea leads to more immediate ice discharge with a higher sensitivity to small warming levels than the same warming in the Amundsen Sea. This is consistent with the specific combination of bedrock and ice topography in the Weddell Sea Sector which results in an ice sheet close to floatation. In response to even slight ocean warming, ice loss increases rapidly, peaks and declines within one century. While the cumulative ice loss in the Amundsen Sea Sector is of similar magnitude after five centuries of continued warming, ice loss increases at a slower pace and only for significantly higher warming levels. Although there is more marine ice stored above sea level in close vicinity of the grounding line compared to the Weddell Sea Sector, the ice sheet is farther from floatation and the grounding line initially retreats more slowly.

scholarly journals A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 711-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafeez Jeofry ◽  
Neil Ross ◽  
Hugh F. J. Corr ◽  
Jilu Li ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
The West ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Bed Elevation ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Elevation Model

Abstract. We present a new digital elevation model (DEM) of the bed, with a 1 km gridding, of the Weddell Sea (WS) sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The DEM has a total area of ∼ 125 000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, as well as the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also improve bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric radar Airborne Science Instrument (PASIN) in 2010–2011, from the relatively crude measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes used in Bedmap2. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep subglacial trough (∼ 2 km below sea level) between the ice-sheet interior and the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream have been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water and, by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2, we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the potential vulnerability of this sector to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of the improved definition of the Foundation Ice Stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region and, from this, the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the WS sector can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

scholarly journals A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafeez Jeofry ◽  
Neil Ross ◽  
Hugh F. J. Corr ◽  
Jilu Li ◽  
Prasad Gogineni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
The West ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Bed Elevation ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Elevation Model

Abstract. We present a new bed elevation digital elevation model (DEM), with a 1 km spatial resolution, for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The DEM has a total area of ~125,000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams and the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes several new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also update bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric Airborne Survey Instrument (PASIN) in 2010-11, as BEDMAP2 included only relatively crude ice thickness measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes. This have resulted in the deep parts of the topography not being visible in the fieldwork non-SAR processed radargrams. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep trough (~ 2 km below sea level) between the ice sheet interior and the grounding line of Foundation ice stream has been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water at the ice-bed interface, and by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2 we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the sensitivity of this sector of the ice sheet to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of improved definition of the Foundation ice stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region, and therefore the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the Weddell Sea sector, West Antarctica can be found in the http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

scholarly journals Thwaites Glacier grounding-line retreat: influence of width and buttressing parameterizations

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (220) ◽  
pp. 305-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Docquier ◽  
David Pollard ◽  
Frank Pattyn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Flow Convergence

AbstractMajor ice loss has recently been observed along coastal outlet glaciers of the West Antarctic ice sheet, mainly due to increased melting below the ice shelves. However, the behavior of this marine ice sheet is poorly understood, leading to significant shortcomings in ice-sheet models attempting to predict future sea-level rise. The stability of a marine ice sheet is controlled by the dynamics at the grounding line, the boundary between the grounded ice stream and the floating ice shelf. One of the largest contributors to current sea-level rise is the fast-flowing Thwaites Glacier, which flows into the Amundsen Sea. Here we use an ice-stream/ice-shelf model and perform a number of experiments along a central flowline to analyze the sensitivity of its grounding line on centennial timescales. In the absence of width and buttressing effects, we find that the grounding line retreats by ˜300 km in 200 years from the present day (rate of 1.5 km a–1). With variable glacier width implemented in the model, flow convergence slows the retreat of Thwaites grounding line at 0.3–1.2 km a–1. The parameterization of ice-shelf buttressing according to different observed scenarios further reduces the glacier retreat and can even lead to a slight advance in the most buttressed case.

scholarly journals Basal topographic controls on the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet: lessons from Foundation Ice Stream

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (75pt2) ◽  
pp. 193-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Huybers ◽  
Gerard Roe ◽  
Howard Conway
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Significant Advance ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Grounding Line

ABSTRACT Using observations of basal topography, ice thickness and modern accumulation rates, we use theory and a dynamic flowline model to examine the sensitivity of Antarctica's Foundation Ice Stream to changes in sea level, accumulation and buttressing at the grounding line. Our sensitivity studies demonstrate that the steep, upward-sloping basal topography inland from the grounding line serves to stabilize retreat of the ice stream, while the upward-sloping submarine topography downstream from the grounding line creates the potential for significant advance under conditions of modest sea-level lowering and/or increased accumulation rate. Extrapolating from Foundation Ice Stream, many nearby Weddell Sea sector ice streams are in a similar configuration, suggesting that the historical and projected responses of this sector's ice streams may contrast with those in the Amundsen or Ross Sea sectors. This work reaffirms that the greatest concerns for rapid West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat are locations of reverse slopes, muted basal topography and limited lateral support.

scholarly journals Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1459-1474
Author(s):  
Andreas Wernecke ◽  
Tamsin L. Edwards ◽  
Isabel J. Nias ◽  
Philip B. Holden ◽  
Neil R. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Principal Components ◽  
Statistical Treatment ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Thickness Change ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. Probabilistic predictions of the sea level contribution from Antarctica often have large uncertainty intervals. Calibration of model simulations with observations can reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in projections, particularly if this exploits as much of the available information as possible (such as spatial characteristics), but the necessary statistical treatment is often challenging and can be computationally prohibitive. Ice sheet models with sufficient spatial resolution to resolve grounding line evolution are also computationally expensive. Here we address these challenges by adopting and comparing dimension-reduced calibration approaches based on a principal component decomposition of the adaptive mesh model BISICLES. The effects model parameters have on these principal components are then gathered in statistical emulators to allow for smooth probability density estimates. With the help of a published perturbed parameter ice sheet model ensemble of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), we show how the use of principal components in combination with spatially resolved observations can improve probabilistic calibrations. In synthetic model experiments (calibrating the model with altered model results) we can identify the correct basal traction and ice viscosity scaling parameters as well as the bedrock map with spatial calibrations. In comparison a simpler calibration against an aggregated observation, the net sea level contribution, imposes only weaker constraints by allowing a wide range of basal traction and viscosity scaling factors. Uncertainties in sea level rise contribution of 50-year simulations from the current state of the ASE can be reduced with satellite observations of recent ice thickness change by nearly 90 %; median and 90 % confidence intervals are 18.9 [13.9, 24.8] mm SLE (sea level equivalent) for the proposed spatial calibration approach, 16.8 [7.7, 25.6] mm SLE for the net sea level calibration and 23.1 [−8.4, 94.5] mm SLE for the uncalibrated ensemble. The spatial model behaviour is much more consistent with observations if, instead of Bedmap2, a modified bedrock topography is used that most notably removes a topographic rise near the initial grounding line of Pine Island Glacier. The ASE dominates the current Antarctic sea level contribution, but other regions have the potential to become more important on centennial scales. These larger spatial and temporal scales would benefit even more from methods of fast but exhaustive model calibration. Applied to projections of the whole Antarctic ice sheet, our approach has therefore the potential to efficiently improve our understanding of model behaviour, as well as substantiating and reducing projection uncertainties.

scholarly journals Contrasting the modelled sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (233) ◽  
pp. 552-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
ISABEL J. NIAS ◽  
STEPHEN L. CORNFORD ◽  
ANTONY J. PAYNE
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Adaptive Mesh Refinement ◽  
Adaptive Mesh ◽  
Mass Conservation ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line

AbstractPresent-day mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet is centred on the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), primarily through ice streams, including Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers. To understand the differences in response of these ice streams, we ran a perturbed parameter ensemble, using a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. We generated 71 sets of three physical parameters (basal traction coefficient, ice viscosity stiffening factor and sub-shelf melt rate), which we used to simulate the ASE for 50 years. We also explored the effects of different bed geometries and basal sliding laws. The mean rate of sea-level rise across the ensemble of simulations is comparable with current observed rates for the ASE. We found evidence that grounding line dynamics are sensitive to features in the bed geometry: simulations using BedMap2 geometry resulted in a higher rate of sea-level rise than simulations using a rougher geometry, created using mass conservation. Modelled grounding-line retreat of all the three ice streams was sensitive to viscosity and basal traction, while the melt rate was more important in Pine Island and Smith glaciers, which flow through more confined ice shelves than Thwaites, which has a relatively unconfined shelf.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Marine Ice Sheets

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 167-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

AbstractMarine ice sheets rest on land that, for the most part, is below sea-level. Ice that flows across the grounding line, where the ice sheet becomes afloat, either calves into icebergs or forms a floating ice shelf joined to the ice sheet. At the grounding line there is a transition from ice-sheet dynamics to ice-shelf dynamics, and the creep-thinning rate in this region is very sensitive to sea depth; rising sea-level causes increased thinning-rates and grounding-line retreat, falling sea-level has the reverse effect. If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet there may be only two stable modes: a freely-floating ice shelf or a marine ice sheet that extends to the edge of the continental shelf. Once started, collapse of such an ice sheet to form an ice shelf may take place extremely rapidly. Ice shelves which form in embayments of a marine ice sheet, or which are partially grounded, have a stabilizing influence since ice flowing across the grounding line has to push the ice shelf past its sides. Retreat of the grounding line tends to enlarge the ice shelf, which ultimately may become large enough to prevent excessive outflow from the ice sheet so that a new equilibrium grounding line is established; removal of the ice shelf would allow retreat to continue. During the late-Wisconsin glacial maximum there may have been marine ice sheets in the northern hemisphere but the only current example is the West Antarctic ice sheet. This is buttressed by the Ross and Ronne Ice Shelves, and if climatic warming were to prohibit the existence of these ice shelves then the ice sheet would collapse. Field observations suggest that, at present, the ice sheet may be advancing into parts of the Ross Ice Shelf. Such advance, however, would not ensure the security of the ice sheet since ice streams that drain to the north appear to flow directly into the sea with little or no ice shelf to buttress them. If these ice streams do not flow over a sufficiently high bedrock sill then they provide the most likely avenues for ice-sheet retreat.

scholarly journals Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1887-1942 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. L. Cornford ◽  
D. F. Martin ◽  
A. J. Payne ◽  
E. G. Ng ◽  
A. M. Le Brocq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
The West ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Ice Accumulation ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Mesh Resolution

Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation, ice shelf melting, and mesh resolution. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rates anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions, ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Sensitivity to mesh resolution is spurious, and we find that sub-kilometer resolution is needed along most regions of the grounding line to avoid systematic under-estimates of the retreat rate, although resolution requirements are more stringent in some regions – for example the Amundsen Sea Embayment – than others – such as the Möller and Institute ice streams.

scholarly journals Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (8) ◽  
pp. 3996-4006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris S. M. Turney ◽  
Christopher J. Fogwill ◽  
Nicholas R. Golledge ◽  
Nicholas P. McKay ◽  
Erik van Sebille ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet

The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice–climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.

scholarly journals Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1579-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. L. Cornford ◽  
D. F. Martin ◽  
A. J. Payne ◽  
E. G. Ng ◽  
A. M. Le Brocq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
The West ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Ice Accumulation ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ocean Models

Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

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