scholarly journals How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 597-615
Author(s):  
Raphael Portmann ◽  
Juan Jesús González-Alemán ◽  
Michael Sprenger ◽  
Heini Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Wave Perturbation ◽  
The North ◽  
Mediterranean Cyclones ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. Mediterranean cyclogenesis is known to be frequently linked to ridge building over the North Atlantic and subsequent anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Europe. But understanding of how this linkage affects the medium-range forecast uncertainty of Mediterranean cyclones is limited, as previous predictability studies have mainly focused on the relatively rare cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis preceded by upstream extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. This study exploits a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational ensemble forecast with an uncertain potential vorticity (PV) streamer position over the Mediterranean that, 3 d after initialization, resulted in an uncertain development of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Zorbas in September 2018. Later initializations showed substantially lower forecast uncertainties over the Mediterranean. An ad hoc clustering of the ensemble members according to the PV streamer position in the Mediterranean is used to study the upstream evolution of the synoptic to mesoscale forecast uncertainties. Cluster differences show that forecast uncertainties were amplified on the stratospheric side of a jet streak over the North Atlantic during the first day of the ensemble prediction. Subsequently, they propagated downstream and were further amplified within a short-wave perturbation along the wave guide, superimposed onto the large-scale Rossby wave pattern. After 3 d, the uncertainties reached the Mediterranean, where they resulted in a large spread in the position of the PV streamer. These uncertainties further translated into uncertainties in the position and thermal structure of the Mediterranean cyclone. In particular, the eastward displacement of the PV streamer in more than a third of the ensemble members resulted in a very different cyclone scenario. In this scenario, cyclogenesis occurred earlier than in the other members in connection to a pre-existing surface trough over the Levantine Sea. These cyclones did not develop the deep warm core typical of medicanes. It is proposed that the eastward-shifted cyclogenesis resulted in reduced values of low-level equivalent potential temperature in the cyclogenesis area. As a result, latent heating was not intense and deep enough to erode the upper-level PV anomaly and allow the formation of a deep warm core. The westward displacement led to surface cyclones that were too weak, and a medicane formed in only half of the members. The central, i.e. correct, PV streamer position resulted in the most accurate forecasts with a strong medicane in most members. This study is the first that explicitly investigates the impact of PV streamer position uncertainty for medicane development. Overall, results extend current knowledge of the role of upstream uncertainties in the medium-range predictability and unsteady forecast behavior of Mediterranean cyclones including medicanes.

North Atlantic Oscillation-related impacts on precipitation over the Italian Peninsula during the 1979-2020 period

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Lorenzo Sánchez ◽  
Leonardo Aragão
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Italian Peninsula ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Resolution Dataset

<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been widely recognized as one of the main patterns of atmospheric variability over the northern hemisphere, helping to understand variations on the North Atlantic Jet (NAJ) position and its influence on storm-tracks, atmospheric blocking and Rossby Wave breaking. Among several relevant teleconnection patterns identified through different timescales, the most prominent ones are found for northern Europe during winter months, when positive (negative) phases of NAO are related to wetter (drier) conditions. Although it is not well defined yet, an opposite connection is observed for the Mediterranean region, where negative NAO values are often associated with high precipitation. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to identify which regions and periods of the year are the most susceptible to abundant NAO-related precipitation throughout the Italian Peninsula. For doing so, the last 42 years period (1979-2020) was analysed using the Fifth Generation ECMWF Atmospheric ReAnalysis of the Global Climate (ERA5). The NAO index was calculated using the Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) extracted from the nearest gridpoints to Reykjavik, Ponta Delgada, Lisbon and Gibraltar, with a time resolution of one hour and horizontal spatial resolution of 0.25ºx0.25º. Both NAO index and MSLP time series were validated for different timescales (hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal) using the Automated Surface Observing System data and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) high-resolution dataset (based on measured data). High correlations, ranging from 0.92 to 0.98, were found for all stations, timescales and evaluated parameters. To quantify the influence of NAO over the Mediterranean region, the monthly averaged ERA5 ‘total precipitation’ data over the Italian Peninsula [35-48º N; 5-20º E] were used. As expected, the results concerning NAO x Precipitation presented the best correlations when analysed monthly, confirming some of the already known NAO signatures over the Italian Peninsula: higher correlations during winter and over the Tyrrhenian coast, and lower correlations during summer and over the Apennines, the Adriatic Sea and the Ionian Sea. On the other hand, the precipitation over the Alps and the Tunisian coast presented a remarkable signature of positive NAO values that, despite a lower statistical significance (85-90%), is in agreement with recent findings of observational studies. In addition, significant negative correlations were identified for the spring and autumn months over the Tyrrhenian area. Among those, the high correlations found during May are particularly interesting, as they follow the behaviour described in recent studies performed using the same high-resolution dataset (ERA5), which have identified an increased number of cyclones over the Mediterranean during this month. This connection suggests that NAO could also be used to explore the potential penetration of the North Atlantic depressions into the Mediterranean Basin. </p><p>Keywords: NAO; Teleconnections; ERA5; ReAnalysis; Mediterranean; Climatology.</p>

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variability of the Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its North Atlantic Origin

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (15) ◽  
pp. 5793-5810 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi-Kyung Sung ◽  
Seon-Hwa Kim ◽  
Baek-Min Kim ◽  
Yong-Sang Choi
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

This study investigates the origin of the interdecadal variability in the warm Arctic and cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function of surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the Eurasian continent in Northern Hemisphere winter, by analyzing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. While previous studies highlight recent enhancement of the WACE pattern, ascribing it to anthropogenic warming, the authors found that the WACE pattern has experienced a seemingly periodic interdecadal variation over the twentieth century. This long-term variation in the Eurasian SAT is attributable to the altered coupling between the Siberian high (SH) and intraseasonal Rossby wave emanating from the North Atlantic, as the local wave branch interacts with the SH and consequentially enhances the continental temperature perturbation. It is further identified that these atmospheric circulation changes in Eurasia are largely controlled by the decadal amplitude modulation of the climatological stationary waves over the North Atlantic region. The altered decadal mean condition of stationary wave components brings changes in local baroclinicity and storm track activity over the North Atlantic, which jointly change the intraseasonal Rossby wave generation and propagation characteristics as well. With simple stationary wave model experiments, the authors confirm how the altered mean flow condition in the North Atlantic acts as a source for the growth of the Rossby wave that leads to the change in the downstream WACE pattern.

scholarly journals Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1379-1391 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Nissen ◽  
G. C. Leckebusch ◽  
J. G. Pinto ◽  
D. Renggli ◽  
S. Ulbrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Storms ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The reproductive biology of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) in the Strait of Gibraltar

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (3) ◽  
pp. 649-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noureddine Abid ◽  
Amin Laglaoui ◽  
Abdelhay Arakrak ◽  
Mohammed Bakkali
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Fork Length ◽  
Strait Of Gibraltar ◽  
Mixing Rate ◽  
The North ◽  
Lower Jaw ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
First Maturity

During the period from April to September for the years 2014–2016, 998 swordfishes caught by the Moroccan artisanal longline fishery in the Strait of Gibraltar were sampled to study the reproduction of this species in this mixing area between the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic. The results showed that the sex ratio is slightly in favour of males for sizes smaller than 130 cm LJFL (Lower jaw-fork length), whereas females are more numerous in sizes larger than 140 cm LJFL. Fifty per cent of females were estimated to be mature at 170 cm LJFL, while for males, the size at first maturity was estimated to be 95 cm LJFL. The swordfish spawn from June to September, probably in the Mediterranean Sea. The findings of this study suggest that the reproductive characteristics of swordfish caught in the Strait of Gibraltar are similar to those of the Mediterranean swordfish, and a high mixing rate between the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic stocks occurs in the study area.

Challenges and opportunities extending the INTIMATE tephra event stratigraphy into the Levant and Arabia.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Blockley ◽  
Dustin White ◽  
Rhys Timms ◽  
Paul Lincoln ◽  
Simon Armitage ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Limited Range ◽  
Geochemical Data ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
The North ◽  
Event Stratigraphy ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Mediterranean

<p>The nature and expression of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Levant and further into Arabia is of considerable interest across a range of communities. This is in part due to the need to understand the potential for future climate forcing on environments given the complex range of climatic forcing factors that play out in the region. These include the role of prevailing winds across the Mediterranean, Northerly winds pushing down into the region during cold glacial conditions, and the influence of the Afro-Arabian Monsoon. The last glacial to interglacial period is a critical window to examine such processes, as a range of climatic signals are recorded, many of which have been proposed as correlatives of events seen in the North Atlantic. Dating issues are as ever an issue when trying to precisely compare different climate archives. To address such, the INTIMATE event stratigraphy has been developed for the North Atlantic region, with recent extensions into parts of the Mediterranean. This couples the stratigraphic framework of the Greenland Ice core records as a regional stratotype, with  a number of tephra horizons in the North Atlantic and Europe, aiding the process of correlation. The last INTIMATE event stratigraphy coupled the extended GICC05 timescale for Greenland back to 128 b2k (Blockley et al., 2014). This paper reports on attempts to test the potential for tephrochronology to be extended into the Levant and potentially Arabia, through the identification of tephra layers in sediment focussing archives, such as archaeological cave sequences. We have examined tephra presence in archaeological sites, principally in Israel, that record sediment deposition from ~30ka BP through to >100ka BP. Analyses of these records show that tephra is present in almost all of the studied sites (e.g., Kebara, Tabun, Amud, Shovakh). Moreover, tephra in these sequences can be chemically correlated to known volcanic systems, demonstrating the potential going forward to analyse long lake and marine records around the region for cryptotephra. At the same time clear challenges are emerging. Firstly, there is a range of chemistry in many of the layers and careful analyses is needed to pick apart the geochemical signal and to identify reworking, as opposed to chemically heterogeneous ash layers from a single volcano. This process is complicated by the relatively limited range of published geochemical data from some volcanic centres. This presentation will outline the current state of knowledge of key volcanic centres, particularly in the Aegean and Turkey, alongside the new Levantine data, to consider the steps needed to establish a secure extension of the INTIMATE approach into this region.</p><p>Blockley, S., et al., 2014. Quaternary Science Reviews. 106, 88-100. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.11.002.</p>

scholarly journals Exploitation of the Small Whales in the North Atlantic

Oryx ◽  
1965 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-193
Author(s):  
Arthur G. Bourne
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Valuable Resource ◽  
The North ◽  
History Of ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
To Come ◽  
Mediterranean And Black Seas

For several hundred years the small whales of the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean and Black Seas have been hunted with varying degrees of intensity. All too often the story has been one of overhunting followed by rapid decline of stocks, but so little is known about these small whales that today it is impossible to assess their populations or the effects of present hunting on the stocks. The author recounts the history of eight species of small whale and urges the need for more research to ensure planned cropping of a valuable resource. A Canadian proposal for whale hunting as a sport is perhaps a sign of a new danger to come.

Summer Rainfall Seesaw between Hetao and the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River and Its Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (17) ◽  
pp. 6629-6643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dachao Jin ◽  
Zhaoyong Guan
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and other observational datasets, the authors have investigated the relationship of summer rainfall variations between the Hetao region of northern China and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR). The results have demonstrated that rainfall in Hetao varies out of phase with that in MLRYR on the interannual time scales. This phenomenon is referred to as the Hetao–Yangtze rainfall seesaw (HYRS). An HYRS index is defined to reveal both spatial and temporal features of HYRS. It is found that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects the HYRS. In years when the NAO is in its positive phase, anomalous divergences in the lower troposphere and anomalous convergences in the upper troposphere are observed in regions of the Mediterranean and eastern Europe. The anomalous convergences in the upper troposphere occur as the positive Rossby wave source excites a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) in the midlatitudes, exhibiting the eastward propagation of Rossby wave energy along the Asian jet. Meanwhile, the Eurasian–Pacific (EUP) teleconnection also affects the HYRS. Influenced mainly by the CGT pattern, the circulations over Hetao and MLRYR are consequently perturbed. The atmosphere over Hetao converges anomalously in the lower troposphere and diverges anomalously in the upper troposphere, facilitating more than normal rainfall there. At the same time, the atmosphere over MLRYR diverges anomalously in the lower troposphere and converges anomalously in the upper troposphere, resulting in more than normal summer rainfall in MLRYR. In this way, the north–south rainfall seesaw is formed. This NAO-induced rainfall seesaw is potentially useful for summer rainfall predictions in both MLRYR and the Hetao region of northern China.

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