The impact of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty on the Greek economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-68
Author(s):  
Hiona Balfoussia ◽  
◽  
Dimitrios P. Louzis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
The Impact

Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on IT Sector. The Case of Greece

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Innovation Development ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the Information and Technology (IT) sector on the countries’ innovation development has been recognized as crucial in prior and recent research studies. Moreover, firms’ innovativeness affects positively countries’ economies. Nevertheless, the global economic crisis of the last decade constituted a significant barrier to the development of country economies and had a negative effect on firms’ performance. Specifically, the negative consequences of the global crisis became harder for Southern Europe Countries. More specifically the Greek economy was suffered by an extended period of crisis with harder consequences than those of other European countries. The main purpose of this study was to examine the financial performance of Greek IT firms in the early years of crisis. Our findings have been relevant to those of previous studies which observed negative effects of the financial recession on firms profitability.

The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand*

2011 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Komain Jiranyakul ◽  
Timothy P. Opiela
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Food Sector Growth

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Eslami ◽  
Ali Akbar Baghestany
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Background: One of the most fundamental objectives of the macroeconomic policies is to realize the relationship between economic growth and inflation. According to some monetary policy advisors, inflation reflects erosion in consumer’s purchasing power. Inflation as an important economic variable, affect the economic growth and its impact on economic growth has been proposed in various theories. Agriculture plays an important role in providing the food security in Iran. Methods: A Bivariate GARCH model was employed to investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and agricultural growth. Results: The Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests indicated all variables were stationary. Estimated models were utilized to generate the conditional variances of inflation and agriculture growth as proxies of inflation and growth variability. During the entire period 1990-2012, Bivariate Granger Causality test indicated that inflation uncertainty was the cause of growth in agriculture. This finding was in line with the hypothesis presented by (Logue and Sweeney, 1981). Conclusion: Due to the causality relation of inflation uncertainty and growth in agriculture, macro policy decision-makers are recommended to consider the price policies for improving agricultural production.

INTERNATIONAL OUTPUT AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND THEIR IMPACT ON COUNTRIES' MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE. EVIDENCE FROM A DYNAMIC FACTOR GARCH-IN-MEAN MODEL

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1113-1133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tino Berger ◽  
Sibylle Grabert
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
International Level ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Oil Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Country Specific

We identify international output and inflation uncertainty and analyze their impact on individual countries' macroeconomic performance. Output and inflation uncertainty on an international level is measured through the conditional variances of common factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of international and country-specific uncertainty is analyzed by including the conditional variances as regressors. We find increases in uncertainty during the first and second oil crisis, the 1980s and 1990s recessions as well as the recent Great Recession to be confined to the international level. The effect of international uncertainty results to be highly significant and unambiguously negative on countries' output growth and inflation rates whereas the impact of country-specific uncertainty is very mixed.

The impact of the recovery and resilience facility on the Greek economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-28
Author(s):  
Dimitris Malliaropulos ◽  
◽  
Dimitris Papageorgiou ◽  
Melina Vasardani ◽  
Evangelia Vourvachaki
Keyword(s):  
Greek Economy ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of US Monetary Growth on Bitcoin Trading Volume in the Current Economic Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
pp. 493-509
Author(s):  
İsmail Canöz
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the effect of US monetary growth on Bitcoin trading volume. To achieve this purpose, firstly, the symmetric causality test is used. Following this test, another symmetric causality test is used to reveal a time-varying causal effect between variables. The data set covers the period from July 2010 to July 2019. The results of the first symmetric causality test, which considers the time interval of the study data as a whole, show that there is no causal relationship between variables. According to the results of the second causality test, these support the previous results substantially. However, an interesting detail is the causal relationship between variables for the period between April 2019 and July 2019. The reason for this relationship could be that investors who are indecisive during the current economic uncertainty add Bitcoin to their portfolios in response to the Federal Reserve's decisions.

How Firm and Market Characteristics Affect Profitability

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Katsampoxakis ◽  
Haralampos Basdekis ◽  
Konstantinos Anathreptakis
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Greek Government ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Greek Government Bond ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to assess the impact of specific corporate and market features on the profitability of firms. More precisely, the variables examined for the purposes of this study are firms' size, financial leverage, accruals, volatility of profitability, growth rate of the Greek economy, the 10-year Greek government bond yield, and the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The empirical results exhibit an average profitability of 10.71%, which varies significantly both between firms and during the time period examined. Another finding of this study is the verification of the theoretical relationship between the above variables and Greek firms' profitability between 2004 and 2012. Whereas variables such as firms' size, volatility of profitability and accruals do not seem to affect firms' profitability in a statistically significant way, the signs of the coefficients are consistent with those found the literature review.

Economic Conditions Cue Evolutionary Challenges

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Gassen ◽  
Sarah E Hill
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Influence Strategies ◽  
Economic Markets ◽  
Evolutionary Context ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Adult Exposure ◽  
The Impact

Changes in economic markets play an important role in cuing developmental programs, cognitions, and social behaviors that would have helped promote survival and reproductive success during times of resource scarcity. This chapter provides an overview of recent research using an evolutionary approach to examine how people think, feel, and behave in conditions of resource scarcity. It starts by talking about research on the effects of early life scarcity on adult outcomes. Next, the chapter presents research related to the impact of adult exposure to resource scarcity on intergroup cognition and political attitudes. Finally, it discusses how changes in economic markets influence strategies for mating and parenting. Together, this research suggests that—although many of the psychological and behavioral responses to economic uncertainty seem irrational—when situating these outcomes in the appropriate evolutionary context, they reflect processes that would have helped promote survival and reproduction during times of resource scarcity.

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