The Impact of US Monetary Growth on Bitcoin Trading Volume in the Current Economic Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
pp. 493-509
Author(s):  
İsmail Canöz
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the effect of US monetary growth on Bitcoin trading volume. To achieve this purpose, firstly, the symmetric causality test is used. Following this test, another symmetric causality test is used to reveal a time-varying causal effect between variables. The data set covers the period from July 2010 to July 2019. The results of the first symmetric causality test, which considers the time interval of the study data as a whole, show that there is no causal relationship between variables. According to the results of the second causality test, these support the previous results substantially. However, an interesting detail is the causal relationship between variables for the period between April 2019 and July 2019. The reason for this relationship could be that investors who are indecisive during the current economic uncertainty add Bitcoin to their portfolios in response to the Federal Reserve's decisions.

Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110088
Author(s):  
Sefa Awaworyi Churchill ◽  
John Inekwe ◽  
Kris Ivanovski
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tourism Flows ◽  
Non Parametric

Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232922110507
Author(s):  
Gillian Slee ◽  
Matthew Desmond
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.

scholarly journals The Impact of Teachers Unions on Teachers’ Well-Being Under Various Legal Institutions: Evidence From District–Teacher Matched Data

AERA Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 233285841986729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunice S. Han
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Legal Environment ◽  
Legal Institutions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Teachers Unions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Matched Data ◽  
The Impact

This article examines how teachers unions affect teachers’ well-being under various legal institutions. Using a district–teacher matched data set, this study identifies the union effects by three approaches. First, I contrast teacher outcomes across different state laws toward unions. Second, I compare the union–nonunion differentials within the same legal environment, using multilevel models and propensity score matching. Finally, unexpected legal changes restricting the collective bargaining of teachers in four states form a natural experiment, allowing me to use the difference-in-difference estimation to identify the causal effect of weakening unionism on teacher outcomes. I find that (a) many teachers join unions even when bargaining is rarely or never available, and meet-and-confer or union membership rate affects teachers’ lives in the absence of a bargaining contract; (b) how unions influence teacher outcomes vary greatly by different legal environment; and (c) the changes in public policy limiting teachers’ bargaining rights significantly decrease teacher compensation.

Do Global Financial, Oil and Gold Volatility Shocks Affect the GCC Stock Markets?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Alqahtani
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

This study employed the non-structural VAR econometrics approach to examine the impact of Global Oil (OVX), Financial (VIX), and Gold (GVZ) volatility indices on GCC stock markets using a daily data set spanning from January 5, 2009 to August 16, 2018. From the VAR result obtained, disequilibrium in the global financial volatility (VIX) was able to significantly transmit negative shock to Bahrain and Kuwait stock markets and positive shock on GVZ. While the global Gold volatility was capable of transmitting fairly positive shock to the UAE and VIX market. The OLS also revealed more to the result obtained from VAR as it shows that OVX and VIX can have impact on the GCC stock markets. The causality test revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from Qatar and UAE to OVX; none of the variables was able to granger cause VIX, while unidirectional causality exist from VIX and UAE to GVZ and VIX and Qatar to Bahrain. VIX and Qatar can granger cause Kuwait stock market, and only Saudi Arabia and Oman have bidirectional causality. Unidirectional causality exists from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, and Qatar is the only stock market capable of causing UAE unidirectionally. Hence, the study concludes that VIX and GVZ are capable of transmitting shocks to three of the six GCC stock markets—(Bahrain, Kuwait and The UAE) negatively (Bahrain and Kuwait) and positively (The UAE). And on this note, the study recommends that appropriate financial and gold transaction policies should be institutionalized so as to mitigate the transmission of shocks into the markets. Also, financial and gold experts who regulate the stock and gold markets especially in Bahrain and Kuwait should watch for any abnormality changes in the volatility movement of the financial and gold markets.

scholarly journals ODA and Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dang Ngoc Duc ◽  
Do Thi Ngoc Lan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The focal point of this paper is focused on assessing the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth in the localities of Vietnam. This research uses panel data of ODA and GDP from 63 provinces of Vietnam by using Granger Causality test. The results showed that ODA has a causal effect on economic growth (GDP) and vice versa, economic growth decides to attract ODA in provinces in Vietnam. This result complements studies on the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth using new empirical evidence through case studies in the provinces of Vietnam.

Drawing on Religion in the Desistance Process: Paying Attention to Race and Ethnicity

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (7) ◽  
pp. 927-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Stansfield
Keyword(s):  
Substance Use ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Hispanic Youth ◽  
Criminal Offending ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Peer Association ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research And Policy

Religion is important in the lives of many ex-offenders. This study uses data from the Pathways to Desistance Study data set to examine the impact of religiosity on criminal desistance and drug use among delinquent White, Black, and Hispanic youth. Results from mixed-effects longitudinal analyses revealed that religiosity was a significant predictor of lower criminal offending and substance use for White youth postconviction, controlling for changes in employment, social support, and delinquent peer association. Although religiosity was associated with lower substance use among Black youth, it was not associated with lower criminal offending among Black or Hispanic youth. We discuss the implications of our findings for research and policy, particularly the need for resources.

Does foreign direct investment promote exports in China?

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Li ◽  
Hsu Ling Chang ◽  
Chi Wei Su ◽  
Yin Dai
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rolling Window

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports in China based on the knowledge capital model (KK model, Markusen, 2002). Design/methodology/approach The bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window causality test is used to determine whether FDI can promote exports. Findings The full-sample causality test indicates no causal relationship from FDI to exports. However, considering structural changes of exports and FDI, the authors’ find that the full-sample test is not reliable. Instead, the authors use the rolling window causality test to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and the results present significant effects from FDI on exports, mostly around periods in which the proportion of FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is increasing. Specifically, positive impacts of FDI on exports are stronger than the negative impacts in China. Research limitations/implications The findings in this study suggest a significant time-varying nature of the correlation between FDI and exports. The promotion effect of FDI to exports is proved by the rolling window approach; it thus supports the KK model that divides FDI into lateral FDI and vertical FDI and proves that the constitution of FDI is critical to the relationship between FDI and exports. Practical implications China has been facing adjustment of its economic structure in recent years, and in this situation, increasing the proportion of FDI that can bring advanced production function is critical for the industrial structural adjustment. Originality/value This paper uses the bootstrap rolling window causality test to investigate the time-varying nature of the causality between FDI and exports, considering structural changes for the first time. The authors further deepen the previous research and draw a more realistic conclusion.

HOW DOES BLOCKCHAIN PARTICIPATION AFFECT THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
YI LI ◽  
WEI ZHANG ◽  
PENGFEI WANG
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Theoretical Studies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact

Taking the unique advantage of the cryptocurrency market setting, this paper examines the relationships between blockchain participation and returns, trading volume and realized volatility of main cryptocurrencies (i.e., Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin). Dissimilar to previous theoretical studies that model the influencing factors on participation, we employ the number of unique from addresses 1 as the proxy for cryptocurrency investors’ blockchain participation and further explore the impact of such participation. By using vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we find that the blockchain participation has a significant and positive impact on the next day’s trading volume and realized volatility for the main cryptocurrencies. Our results are robust to the Granger causality test and alternative measure for blockchain participation.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF MAGNITUDES TYPES IN THE NONEXTENSIVITY APPLIED AT THE CIRCUM-PACIFIC SUBDUCTION ZONES

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Thaís Machado Scherrer ◽  
George Sand França ◽  
Raimundo Silva ◽  
Daniel Brito de Freitas ◽  
Carlos da Silva Vilar
Keyword(s):  
Solid Earth ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Data Source ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT. Following our own previous work, we reanalyze the nonextensive behavior over the circum-Pacific subduction zones evaluating the impact of using different types of magnitudes in the results. We used the same data source and time interval of our previous work, the NEIC catalog in the years between 2001 and 2010. Even considering different data sets, the correlation between q and the subduction zone asperity is perceptible, but the values found for the nonextensive parameter in the considered data sets presents an expressive variation. The data set with surface magnitude exhibits the best adjustments.Keywords: Nonextensivity, Seismicity, Solid Earth, Earthquake.RESUMO. No mesmo caminho do nosso trabalho anterior, reanalisamos o comportamento não extensivo sobre as zonas de subducção do círcuo de fogo do Pacífico, avaliando o impacto do uso de diferentes tipos de magnitude nos resultados. Utilizamos o mesmo intervalo de dados e fonte de nosso trabalho anterior, do catálogo NEIC entre os anos 2001 e 2010. Mesmo considerando diferentes conjuntos de dados, a correlação entre q e a aspereza das zonas de subducção é perceptível, mas os valores encontrados para o parâmetro não extensivo no conjuntos de dados considerados apresentam uma variação expressiva. O conjunto de dados com magnitude de superfície exibe os melhores ajustes.Palavras-chave: Não extensividade, Sismicidade, Terra Sólida, Terremotos.

Realistic weather conditions and removal of time-varying sea-surface effects: Application on ocean-bottom-cable data

Geophysics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. V297-V315
Author(s):  
Elsa Cecconello ◽  
Walter Söllner
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Surface Effects ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ocean Bottom ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Theoretical Derivation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Sea Surface Effects ◽  
The Impact

In marine seismic acquisition, seismic reflections at the sea surface, such as sea-surface ghosts and multiples, affect the accuracy of the retrieved subsurface reflections and reduce the usable frequency bandwidth. These sea-surface effects tend to increase with the increasing roughness of the weather conditions. Consequently, processing techniques that neglect the roughness and time variation of the sea surface induce errors in the data that could compromise the validity of the final images and interpretations. We study the impact of time-varying rough sea surfaces using a modeling method derived from the Rayleigh reciprocity theorem for time-varying surfaces, and we analyze errors in the source-deghosting operation. We show that the source-deghosting limitations are weather dependent for data including sea-surface multiples: For calm sea states (wave heights below 1.25 m), the error made by the source-deghosting process is negligible; however, for rough seas (wave heights above 1.5 m), it becomes significant and blurs the deghosted image at the sea-surface multiple signals. To accurately remove all sea-surface effects from the seismic data, we simultaneously apply source-deghosting and multiple-removal operations to the same up-going wavefield. This procedure is shown to be weather independent based on our theoretical derivation and the synthetic results. Finally, this is tested on a 2D OBC data set. Comparing the proposed inversion to up-down deconvolution, we observe similar features in both wavefields: Source ghosts and sea-surface multiples seem to have been correctly removed from the data, and the inverted result indicates a slightly better resolution for deeper reflections.

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