The Impact of Volatile Exchange Rate on Commodity Wise Trade of Pakistan to Its Major Trading Partner China: An Empirical Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Ahmer Bilal ◽  
Xiaoping Li ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Chishti ◽  
Minhaj Ali
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Major Trading Partner ◽  
Unique Aspect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The current study endeavors to explore the effects of oscillations in exchange rate on commodity trade flow between Pakistan and China, employing the data for the time period of 1982-2017. Applying ARDL Bound Testing approach, we find that 63% exporting and 55% importing industries of Pakistan demonstrate the co-integration. Further, employing ARDL technique, the current study deduces that 55% in the short run and 18% exporting industries in the long run respond to the volatility. In imports function, the volatility affects 56% industries in short as well as long run. Intriguingly, two exporting industries coded as 651 (57% share) & 652 (13% share) do not respond to the volatility. And, this is the unique aspect of our study.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate on Bangladesh’s Export: A Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Takrima Sayeda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the paper is to see if there is any relationship exist between free floating exchange rate and export performance of Bangladesh. It inspects the monthly data of exchange rate and export value for the time period between year 2000 and 2017. It utilized the Johansen [1] cointegration approach to identify the extent of long run and short run relationship between them. The study could not establish neither any long term trend nor any short term dynamics between the variables. Respective variables are significantly related to their own immediate past values. Distant past values do not have any implications. This study suggests that short run macroeconomic policy would be beneficial to influence the foreign exchange market and eventually the performance of export of Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Import Trade Flow Evidence From India-U.S. at Industry Level

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Mohini Gupta ◽  
Sakshi Varshney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

IS THERE J-CURVE EFFECT IN THE COMMODITY TRADE OF SINGAPORE WITH MALAYSIA? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (03) ◽  
pp. 567-591
Author(s):  
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE ◽  
HANAFIAH HARVEY
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Small Industries ◽  
The Impact

A previous study that investigated the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of Singapore with each of its 13 largest trading partners on bilateral basis found significant long-run effects in four out of 13 cases. In the trade balance between Singapore and Malaysia as a major partner, the real exchange rate had neither short-run nor long-run significant effects. To reduce the aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate the trade flows between the two countries by industry and consider the trade balance of each of the 136 industries that trade between the two countries. We find that the trade balance of 79 industries are affected by exchange rate changes in the short run. However, short-run effects last into the long run in only 19 industries which mostly happen to be small industries.

The Implication of the Oscillations in Exchange Rate for the Commodity-wise Trade Flows between Pakistan and China: An Evidence from ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050030
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zubair Chishti ◽  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Farrukh Mahmood ◽  
Hafiz Syed Muhammad Azeem
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Textile Yarn ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Major Trading Partner ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study intends to explore the impact of oscillations in the exchange rate on commodity-wise trade flows between Pakistan and its major trading partner China, while employing the annual data for 1982–2017. Applying the ARDL bounds testing approach, this study confirms that 94% of the selected exporting and 86% of the chosen importing industries possess “cointegration”. Further, the findings reveal that 81%, in the short run, and 52%, in the long run, of exporting industries respond to the volatile exchange rate. Moreover, the volatility affects 77%, in the short run, while 65%, in the long term, of the importing industries. Fascinatingly, the findings also indicate that a major shareholder exporting industry coded as 651 (“Textile yarn and thread” with 57% share) gets benefitted from the volatile exchange rate.

scholarly journals Exchange rate volatility and import trade flow Evidence from India-U.S. at Industry level

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

scholarly journals Examining the impact of Exports and Exchange rate on Economic Growth of Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iftikhar Muhammad ◽  
Malik Shahzad Shabbir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Purpose This study intends to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships along with the identification of causal links between exports, economic growth, and exchange rate in Turkey. Data/Design: This study uses auto-regressive distributed lags (ARDL) and Granger causality over time series monthly data from the year 2010–2018. The results indicate that exports are significantly positively related to economic growth while the exchange rate is found to be negatively related to economic growth. Findings: Moreover, findings from the test of Granger causality indicate that a unidirectional causal association is found from exports to foreign direct investment and economic growth and from economic growth to foreign direct investment. The Granger causality results indicate that an increase in exports accelerates the economic growth of Turkey and a change in growth rate and exchange rate leads to a change in foreign direct investment. Originality of work: The overall findings suggest that exports should be promoted along with the liberal-investment economic policies to boost the overall economic growth in Turkey.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Yuan-SDR Exchange Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Debesh Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The paper endeavours to explore the macroeconomic impact on the Yuan SDR exchange rate of China during 2017m1-2021m6 to justify the internationalization of RMB which had entered into the SDR basket of IMF in October 2016.To evaluate the impact ,the paper used the methodology of Johansen (1988) cointegration and vector error correction model considering monthly Yuan per SDR as dependent variable and monthly GDP, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, export and import as the independent macro-economic variables. The pattern of trendline of Yuan per SDR is found nonlinear having cyclical fluctuations and seasonal variations according to Hamilton (2018). The paper also found that Yuan per SDR has significant long run causalities with export, import, inflation rate, GDP and foreign exchange rate of China during the specified period. Even, Yuan per SDR has significant short run causality with export only. The cointegrating equation converged towards the equilibrium with the speed of adjustment 11.83% per month significantly. The impulse response function of import to Yuan per SDR showed significantly convergent. The VECM contains autocorrelation problem and unit root for which it is non-stationary.

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