Coronavirus Market-Crash – How Far Did FIRE Retiree’s Capital Drawdown?

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the destruction of capital held by FIRE-retirees in the US stock- market as represented by the S&P500 index during the coronavirus market-crash. The performance of a lumpsum of $1,000,000 invested by retirees at the end of each year from 2009 to 2019 were calculated using 4% inflation adjusted withdrawal rates. Findings suggest that at the low point of March 23, 2020 the retirees of the first 4 years (2009 till 2012) using 4% inflation adjusted withdrawals all had their initial $1,000,000 capital plus growth. (Highest positive balance: 2009, $1,485,574, increase of 48.6%. Lowest positive balance: 2012, $1,282,147, increase 28.2%). All retirees from the end of 2013 had their initial $1,000,000 investment decreased to below initial capital (Lowest negative balance: 2019, $692,500, decrease 30.75%). Despite 4% inflation adjusted withdrawals, the longer the retirement period the more likely to experience net capital growth. The investigation also revealed the effect of 0% or negative returns during the beginning years of an investment. Some $1,000,000 investments made in earlier years (2010, 2014 and 2017) ending in lower balances than investments made in the next year (2011, 2015 and 2018). KEYWORDS: FIRE movement, Retirement, S&P500 index, CPI adjusted, Coronavirus market-crash