Infrastructure failure propagations and recovery strategies from an Alpine Fault earthquake scenario

While it is well established that community members should participate in resilience planning, participation with genuine decision-making power remains rare. We detail an end-to-end disaster impact reduction modelling framework for infrastructure networks, embedded within a scenario-based participatory approach. Utilising the AF8+ earthquake scenario, we simulate hazard exposure, asset failure and recovery of interdependent critical infrastructure networks. Quantifying service levels temporally offers insights into possible interdependent network performance and community disconnection from national networks, not apparent when studying each infrastructure in isolation. Sequencing participation enables feedbacks between integrated modelling and participants’ impact assessments. Shared ownership of modelling outputs advances stakeholders’ understanding of resilience measures, allowing real-time implementation, increasing community resilience. Readily understood by central government, this format may increase support and resourcing, if nationally significant. Finally, this method tested integrated modelling and impacts assessments, identifying and enabling improvements for both.

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Evaluating the Magnitude and Spatial Extent of Disruptions Across Interdependent National Infrastructure Networks

ASCE-ASME J Risk and Uncert in Engrg Sys Part B Mech Engrg ◽

10.1115/1.4046327 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Conrad Zorn ◽

Raghav Pant ◽

Scott Thacker ◽

Asaad Y. Shamseldin

Keyword(s):

Spatial Variability ◽

Mobile Networks ◽

Critical Infrastructure ◽

Multiple Scales ◽

Infrastructure Networks ◽

Passenger Rail ◽

Failure Event ◽

Failure Propagation ◽

National Networks ◽

National Infrastructure

Abstract Critical infrastructure networks are geographically distributed systems spanning multiple scales. These networks are increasingly interdependent for normal operations, which causes localized asset failures from natural hazards or man-made interference to propagate across multiple networks, affecting those far removed from an initiating failure event. This paper provides methodology to identify such failure propagation effects by quantifying the spatial variability in magnitude, frequency, and disruptive reach of failures across national infrastructure networks. To achieve this, we present methodology to combine functionally interdependent infrastructure networks with geographic interdependencies by simulating complete asset failures across a national scale grid of spatially localized hazards. A range of metrics are introduced to compare the systemic vulnerabilities of infrastructure systems and the resulting spatial variability in both the potential for initiating widespread failures and the risk of being impacted by distant hazards. We demonstrate the approach through an application in New Zealand of infrastructures across the energy (electricity, petroleum supply), water and waste (water supply, wastewater, solid waste), telecommunications (mobile networks), and transportation sectors (passenger rail, ferry, air, and state highways). In addition to identifying nationally significant systemic vulnerabilities, we observe that nearly half (46%) of the total disruptions across the simulation set can be attributed to network propagation initiated asset failures. This highlights the importance in considering interdependencies when assessing infrastructure risks and prioritizing investment decisions for enhancing resilience of national networks.

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Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-82474-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Simon Kapitza ◽

Pham Van Ha ◽

Tom Kompas ◽

Nick Golding ◽

Natasha C. R. Cadenhead ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Integrated Modelling ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Economic Changes ◽

Use Patterns ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Avian Biodiversity ◽

Biodiversity Change ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species’ geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.

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Development of an integrated modelling framework for retailers of perishable products: a dynamic programming approach

International Journal of Operational Research ◽

10.1504/ijor.2011.041344 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 262 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sanjay W. Rajurkar ◽

Rakesh Jain

Keyword(s):

Dynamic Programming ◽

Integrated Modelling ◽

Programming Approach ◽

Perishable Products ◽

Dynamic Programming Approach ◽

Modelling Framework

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Adaptive Strategic Cyber Defense for Advanced Persistent Threats in Critical Infrastructure Networks

ACM SIGMETRICS Performance Evaluation Review ◽

10.1145/3305218.3305239 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (2) ◽

pp. 52-56 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Linan Huang ◽

Quanyan Zhu

Keyword(s):

Critical Infrastructure ◽

Cyber Defense ◽

Infrastructure Networks ◽

Advanced Persistent Threats

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Identifying Sensitive Components in Infrastructure Networks via Critical Flows

10.31224/osf.io/hyzbx ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

James Williams

Keyword(s):

Reliability Analysis ◽

Critical Infrastructure ◽

Urban Systems ◽

Centrality Measures ◽

Critical Flow ◽

Infrastructure Networks ◽

Component Importance ◽

Infrastructure System ◽

Critical Components ◽

The Impact

This paper introduces a novel set of component importance measures that are based on the concept of critical flow. Various research communities have developed techniques for identifying critical components of networks. The methods in this paper extend previous work on flow-based centrality measures by adapting them to the assessment of critical infrastructure in urban systems. The motivation is to provide municipalities with a means of reasoning about the impact of urban interventions. An infrastructure system is represented as a flow network in which demand nodes are assigned both demand values and criticality ratings. Sensitive elements in the network are those that carry critical flows, where a flow is deemed critical to the extent that it satisfies critical demand. A method for computing these flows is presented, and its utility is demonstrated by comparing the new measures to existing flow centrality measures. The paper also shows how the method may be combined with standard approaches to reliability analysis.

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How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change

10.5194/esd-2020-52 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Calum Brown ◽

Ian Holman ◽

Mark Rounsevell

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

System Development ◽

Active Management ◽

Integrated Modelling ◽

Agent Based Model ◽

Agent Based ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Land Use Models ◽

Landscape Scales

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.

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Options for reforming agricultural subsidies from health, climate, and economic perspectives

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-27645-2 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

Author(s):

M. Springmann ◽

F. Freund

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Systems ◽

Food System ◽

Global Scale ◽

Integrated Modelling ◽

Agricultural Subsidies ◽

Sustainable Food ◽

Equal Distribution ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Economic Perspectives

AbstractAgricultural subsidies are an important factor for influencing food production and therefore part of a food system that is seen as neither healthy nor sustainable. Here we analyse options for reforming agricultural subsidies in line with health and climate-change objectives on one side, and economic objectives on the other. Using an integrated modelling framework including economic, environmental, and health assessments, we find that on a global scale several reform options could lead to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and improvements in population health without reductions in economic welfare. Those include a repurposing of up to half of agricultural subsidies to support the production of foods with beneficial health and environmental characteristics, including fruits, vegetables, and other horticultural products, and combining such repurposing with a more equal distribution of subsidy payments globally. The findings suggest that reforming agricultural subsidy schemes based on health and climate-change objectives can be economically feasible and contribute to transitions towards healthy and sustainable food systems.

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Estimates of future flood risk in Western Europe and its potential impact on insured losses.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12689 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Remi Meynadier ◽

Hugo Rakotoarimanga ◽

Madeleine-Sophie Deroche ◽

Sylvain Buisine

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Large Scale ◽

Western Europe ◽

Complex Nature ◽

Flood Risks ◽

Hazard Exposure ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Loss Modelling ◽

The Impact

The large-scale and complex nature of climate change makes it difficult to assess and quantify the impact on insurance activities. Climate change is likely affecting the probability of natural hazard occurrence in terms of severity and/or frequency.Natural catastrophe risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. As a (re)-insurer it is seen that changes in year-on-year losses are a function of all these components and not just the hazard.The present study focuses, in a first step, on assessing impacts of climate change on fluvial flood risks in Europe solely due to changes in hazard itself. A stochastic catalogue of future flood risk events is derived from Pan-European data sets of river flood probability of occurrence produced within EU FP7 RAIN project. The loss modelling framework internally developed at AXA is then used to provide a geographical view of changes in future flood risks.&#160;

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