EVALUATION OF SURVIVABILITY OF A SHIP AFTER DAMAGE WITH APPLICATION OF A RISK CALCULATION METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 162 (A1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P S Szulczewski
Keyword(s):  
Calculation Method ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Risk Calculation ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Valid Method ◽  
Comparison Of Results ◽  
Industry Standard

This paper contains calculations of risk for a selected damage case scenario. The calculations took place with use of a risk model designed for evaluating the safety of ships and were compared with the available and published industry standard (as included in SOLAS 2009) as well. The comparison of results is presented in the form of a discussion and concludes that exact risk levels can be obtained at any stage of the vessel's life. The currently valid method as included in SOLAS 2009 regulation provides limited information about the actual survivability of a vessel in emergency conditions. It is hence very difficult to compare the current probabilistic model with risk based survivability calculations to evaluate the actual safety provided by an investigated vessel should it subsequently be severely damaged.

Evaluation of Survivability of a Ship After Damage with Application of a Risk Calculation Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (A1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P S Szulczewski
Keyword(s):  
Calculation Method ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Risk Calculation ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Valid Method ◽  
Comparison Of Results ◽  
Industry Standard

This paper contains calculations of risk for a selected damage case scenario. The calculations took place with use of a risk model designed for evaluating the safety of ships and were compared with the available and published industry standard (as included in SOLAS 2009) as well. The comparison of results is presented in the form of a discussion and concludes that exact risk levels can be obtained at any stage of the vessel's life. The currently valid method as included in SOLAS 2009 regulation provides limited information about the actual survivability of a vessel in emergency conditions. It is hence very difficult to compare the current probabilistic model with risk based survivability calculations to evaluate the actual safety provided by an investigated vessel should it subsequently be severely damaged.

The Limits of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms

2014 ◽  
Vol 926-930 ◽  
pp. 3294-3297
Author(s):  
Cai Chang Ding ◽  
Wen Xiu Peng ◽  
Wei Ming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Estimation Of Distribution Algorithms ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Estimation Of Distribution ◽  
Distribution Algorithms

In this paper, we study the ability limit of EDAs to effectively solve problems in relation to the number of interactions among the variables. More in particular, we numerically analyze the learning limits that different EDA implementations encounter to solve problems on a sequence of additively decomposable functions (ADFs) in which new sub-functions are progressively added. The study is carried out in a worst-case scenario where the sub-functions are defined as deceptive functions. We argue that the limits for this type of algorithm are mainly imposed by the probabilistic model they rely on. Beyond the limitations of the approximate learning methods, the results suggest that, in general, the use of bayesian networks can entail strong computational restrictions to overcome the limits of applicability.

Occupational Risk Model Application in Information Systems for Open-Pit Coal Mining Organizations

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
K. Kuleckiy ◽  
S. Zhunda ◽  
M. Rudakov ◽  
D. Sobyanin
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Coal Mining ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Protection System ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Open Pit ◽  
Labor Protection ◽  
Model Application ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Industrial Injuries

Statistics and analysis related to industrial injuries at the enterprises for open-pit coal mining have been presented in this article. A method for formation a hazard register with an increased and critical risk levels during technological operations has been proposed. The necessity of digitalization for the industrial safety and labor protection system has been demonstrated.

scholarly journals The theoretical surrender value in life insurance

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolino Ettore D’Ortona ◽  
Maria Sole Staffa
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Insurance Portfolio ◽  
Value Determination

In the context of the stochastic models for the management of life insurance portfolio, the authors explore, with simulation approach, the effects induced by the application of a particular method of calculation of the surrender value. In the life insurance, the policyholder position is, at any moment, quantified by the mathematical reserve. In case the reserve amount results are positive, the insurance company can allow the contract surrender, consisting in an amount payment, called surrender value, commensurate with the mathematical reserve. Generally, the insurance company enforces some restrictions in the surrender value determination, in order to avoid, first of all, that an amount is disbursed to the policyholder while, on the contrary, he results to be indebted to the Company. In this paper the authors will consider a surrender value calculation method based precisely on the profit recovery concept which shall be supplied by the contract in case it remains in the portfolio. Additionally, the authors shall analyze, by simulation approach, the effects caused by the enforcement of the surrender value calculation concept on a life portfolio profitability, and on the penalties extent enforced to the policyholders which cancel from the contract. Keywords: surrender value, life insurance, internal risk model, stochastic simulation

scholarly journals A Predictive Model for Severe Covid-19 in the Medicare Population: A Tool for Prioritizing Scarce Vaccine Supply

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bettina Experton ◽  
Hassan A. Tetteh ◽  
Nicole Lurie ◽  
Peter Walker ◽  
Colin J. Carroll ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Medicare Population ◽  
Zip Code

ABSTRACTBackgroundRecommendations for prioritizing populations for COVID-19 vaccination have focused on front-line health care personnel and residents in long term care, followed by other individuals at higher risk for severe disease. Existing models for identifying higher risk individuals including those over age 65 lack the needed integration of socio-demographic and clinical risk factors to ensure equitable vaccine allocation.MethodsWe developed a predictive model for severe COVID-19 using clinical data from de-identified Medicare claims for 16 million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, including 1 million COVID-19 cases, and socio-economic data from the CDC Social Vulnerability Index. To identify risk factors for severe COVID-19, we used multivariate logistic regression and random forest modeling. Predicted individual probabilities of COVID-19 hospitalization were then calculated for population risk stratification and COVID-19 vaccine prioritization, and for mapping of population risk levels at the county and zip code levels on a nationwide dashboard.ResultsThe leading Covid-19 hospitalization risk factors driving the risk model were: Non-white ethnicity (particularly North American Native, Black, and Hispanic), end-stage renal disease, advanced age (particularly age over 85), prior hospitalization, leukemia, morbid obesity, chronic kidney disease, lung cancer, chronic liver disease, pulmonary fibrosis or pulmonary hypertension, and chemotherapy. However, previously reported risk factors such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes conferred modest hospitalization risk. Among all social vulnerability factors analyzed, residence in a low-income zip code was the only risk factor independently predicting Covid-19 hospitalization. The mapped hospitalization risk levels showed significant correlations with the cumulative COVID-19 case hospitalization rates at the zip code level in the fifteen most populous U.S. major metropolitan areas.ConclusionThis multi-factor risk model which predicts severe Covid-19and its population risk dashboard can be used to optimize Covid-19 vaccine allocation in the higher risk Medicare population where socio-demographic and comorbidity risk factors need to be considered concurrently.

A Candidate Proxy to be used in Intensity-Based Triggering Mechanism for Parametric CAT-Bond Insurance: Istanbul Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 565-588
Author(s):  
Mehdi Mousavi ◽  
Sinan Akkar ◽  
Mustafa Erdik
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Cat Bonds ◽  
Bond Insurance ◽  
Accelerometric Network ◽  
Seismic Networks ◽  
Event Based

We study the suitability of average peak ground acceleration ( PGA) as a ground-motion proxy for parametric catastrophe bond (CAT bond) design. We tie the selection of PGA (as a triggering parameter for CAT bonds) to computational convenience (fast retrieval from the recorded ground motion) and loss correlation (optimum monetary return on the investor side). Our case studies advocate that PGA, as a candidate ground-motion proxy, can be used confidently for parametric CAT bonds, particularly applications associated with dense coverage of seismic networks. It is still a compelling ground-motion proxy even if the seismic network coverage is sparse, provided that the accelerometric stations are deployed in the vicinity of assets that financially represent the most significant portion of the insured building stock. We establish an event-based risk model of the Istanbul city (via Monte Carlo simulations) to depict the rationale behind our proposition and compare its performance with other competing (more sophisticated) proxies in terms of accelerometric network density and spatial distribution as well as the different risk levels used in risk management.

A Risk Model by Fitting Function for the Wastewater of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 1085-1088
Author(s):  
Xue Long Chen ◽  
Xiao Long Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Chinese Medicine ◽  
Traditional Chinese Medicine ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Mass Growth ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Klebsiella Planticola ◽  
Medium Risk

a risk model to assess the environmental risk of wastewater from the traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers was set to cope with the increasing pollution. The Klebsiella planticola was selected as the indicator because of the sensitive reaction of its mass growth, the highest correlationship(r=0.989) with significance (P=0.001＜0.01) along with the change of the wastewater’s concentrations and the perfect coefficient of fitting function (R2=1). The dose-effective relationship among microbial indicator and pollutants, which was analyzed and verified, was adopted to generate a fitting function. The fitting function equation was y=-0.945x4+0.971x3+0.314x2-0.114x +0.301; Thus, different risk levels were divided: No risk (0.2973≤OD600≤0.3010), Low risk (0.3010＜OD600＜0.4325, 0.1505＜OD600＜0.2973), Medium risk (0.4325≤OD600＜0.5640, 0.1505≤OD600＜0), High risk (0.5640≤OD600, OD600≤0.000). The sensitivity and precision of the risk assessment model could be guaranteed by the characteristics of the microbial indicator

scholarly journals Ex-ante real estate Value at Risk calculation method

2015 ◽  
Vol 262 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme ◽  
Fabrice Barthélémy
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Calculation ◽  
Ex Ante

scholarly journals Analytic modeling and risk assessment of aerial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus through vaping expirations in shared micro-environments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Sussman ◽  
Eliana Golberstein ◽  
Riccardo Polosa
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Direct Exposure ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Nicotine Consumption ◽  
Contagion Risk ◽  
Droplet Nuclei ◽  
Respiratory Droplets ◽  
Indoor Spaces

Abstract Background. E-cigarettes are an important harm reduction tool that provides smokers an alternative for nicotine consumption that is much safer than smoking. It is important to asses its safety under preventive and containment measures undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. We develop a theoretical risk model to assess the contagion risk by aerial transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carried by e–cigarette aerosol (ECA) in shared indoor spaces, a home and restaurant scenarios, with natural and mechanical ventilation, with and without face masks. We also provide the theoretical elements to explain the visibility of exhaled ECA, which has important safety implications. Results. In a home or restaurant scenarios bystanders exposed to ECA expirations by an infectious vaper (and not wearing face masks) face a 1% increase of risk of contagion with respect to a “control case” scenario defined by exclusively rest breathing without vaping. This relative added risk becomes 5 - 17% for high intensity vaping, 44 - 176% and over 260% for speaking for various periods or coughing (all without vaping). Mechanical ventilation significantly decrease infective emissions but keep the same proportionality in risk percentages. Face masks of common usage effectively protect wearers from respiratory droplets and droplet nuclei possibly emitted by mask-less vapers as long as they avoid direct exposure to the visible exhaled vaping jet. Conclusions. Vaping emissions in shared indoor spaces involve only a minuscule added risk of COVID-19 contagion with respect to the already existing (unavoidable) risk from continuous breathing, significantly less than speaking or coughing. Protection of bystanders from this contagion does not require extra preventive measures besides those already recommended (1.5 meters separation and wearing face masks).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document