INTEGRATED ACCIDENT MODEL FOR MARINE CONVOY TRAFFIC IN ICE- COVERED WATERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 162 (A2) ◽  
Author(s):  
B Khan ◽  
F Khan ◽  
B Veitch
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
Safe Navigation ◽  
Accident Probabilities

Independent safe navigation in ice-covered water is difficult. Icebreaker assistance is required for sailing through ice- covered waters. This poses an additional risk of collision. The study proposes a modified Human Factor Analysis and Classification (HFACS) framework to identify and classify contributing risk factors during a convoy. HFACS integration with Nagel-Schrekenberg (NaSch) model considers an operator’s behaviour and links it with the occurrence of various risk factors. The study finds significant influence in risk from small changes in two new factors, viz., crew reduction and crew overload. For example, based on the sensitivity analysis, it is determined that about a 17% contribution of crew reduction and about a 24% of contribution of crew overload increase the contribution of risk taking by an amount of approximately 93% in the overall risk of accidents. The accident probabilities obtained here will be helpful in decision making concerning safe operations during a convoy.

Integrated Accident Model for Marine Convoy Traffic in Ice-Covered Waters

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (A2) ◽  
Author(s):  
B Khan ◽  
F Khan ◽  
B Veitch
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
Safe Navigation ◽  
Accident Probabilities

Independent safe navigation in ice-covered water is difficult. Icebreaker assistance is required for sailing through ice- covered waters. This poses an additional risk of collision. The study proposes a modified Human Factor Analysis and Classification (HFACS) framework to identify and classify contributing risk factors during a convoy. HFACS integration with Nagel-Schrekenberg (NaSch) model considers an operator’s behaviour and links it with the occurrence of various risk factors. The study finds significant influence in risk from small changes in two new factors, viz., crew reduction and crew overload. For example, based on the sensitivity analysis, it is determined that about a 17% contribution of crew reduction and about a 24% of contribution of crew overload increase the contribution of risk taking by an amount of approximately 93% in the overall risk of accidents. The accident probabilities obtained here will be helpful in decision making concerning safe operations during a convoy.

Healthy aging is associated with decreased risk-taking in motor decision-making.

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Valsecchi ◽  
Jutta Billino ◽  
Karl R. Gegenfurtner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Healthy Aging

Stress, Cortisol and Suicide Risk

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl Brian O'Connor
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Suicidal Behavior ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Stressful Events ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
Global Health Issue ◽  
History Of ◽  
Hpa Axis Activity ◽  
The Impact

Suicide is a global health issue accounting for at least 800,000 deaths per annum. Numerous models have been proposed that differ in their emphasis on the role of psychological, social, psychiatric and neurobiological factors in explaining suicide risk. Central to many models is a stress-diathesis component which states that suicidal behavior is the result of an interaction between acutely stressful events and a susceptibility to suicidal behavior (a diathesis). This article presents an overview of studies that demonstrate that stress and dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity, as measured by cortisol levels, are important additional risk factors for suicide. Evidence for other putative stress-related suicide risk factors including childhood trauma, impaired executive function, impulsivity and disrupted sleep are considered together with the impact of family history of suicide, perinatal and epigenetic influences on suicide risk.

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