While variation analysis methods for compliant assemblies are becoming established, there is still much to be done to model the effects of multi-step, fixtured assembly processes statistically. A new method is introduced for statistically analyzing compliant part assembly processes using fixtures. This method yields both a mean and a variant solution, which can characterize an entire population of assemblies. The method, called Piecewise-Linear Elastic Analysis, or PLEA, is developed for predicting the residual stress, deformation and springback variation resulting from fixtured assembly processes. A comprehensive, step-by-step analysis map is presented for introducing dimensional and surface variations into a finite element model, simulating assembly operations, and calculating the error in the final assembly. PLEA is validated on a simple, laboratory assembly and a more complex, production assembly. Significant modeling issues are resolved as well as the comparison of the analytical to physical results.