scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Price Index: Evidence from Vietnam Stock Market

2019 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sugeng Hadi Utomo ◽  
Dwi Wulandari ◽  
Bagus Shandy Narmaditya ◽  
Puji Handayati ◽  
Suryati Ishak

This paper provides the relationship between macroeconomic variables, including exchange rate, BI rate and inflation, and stocks performance, particulary bluechip stocks listed in LQ45 index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study particularly gives insights on bluechip stocks listed in LQ45 stock price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2017. The data were obtained from various sources during the period, including the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), and the Ministry of Trade. This study followed a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) attempting to estimate the relationship between variables both in the short term and in the long term. The findings of the study showed that in the long run, exchange rate, BI rate and inflation have a negative impact on stock market performance, particularly on LQ45 index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. It implies that an increase in macroeconomic variables results in the decline of stock market performance. Meanwhile, in the short run, two variables, namely the exchange rate and inflation, positively affect stock market performance in Indonesia. On the contrary, the relationship between BI rate and stock market performance showed a negative correlation. These findings have significant implication for the understanding of how macroeconomic variables affect the stock market performance, particularly LQ45 price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 126-152
Author(s):  
Amani Mohammed Aldukhail

This study aimed at exploring the effect of macroeconomic variables on the activity of the Saudi stock market for the period 1997-2017. Macroeconomic variables were: GDP, interest rate on time deposits, inflation rate. The variables of the Saudi stock market activity were: stock price index, market value of shares, value of traded shares. To achieve this objective, the researcher used the ARDL model for the self-regression of the lagged distributed time gaps. The most important results of the research are: The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators in the Saudi stock market is not important in the short term and is statistically significant in the long term according to the proposed models, so investors in this market can rely on macroeconomic variables in Predict the movement of the stock market and predict long-term profits and losses.


2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Kieu Minh Nguyen ◽  
Diep Van Nguyen

The main target of this study is to measure the relationship of macroeconomic factors to the volatility of the stock market in Vietnam (through stock price VN-index). There are four factors including the consumer price index (measure of inflation), the exchange rate of USD/VND and money supply M2. Research shows that the stock price VN-Index has a positive relationship with the money supply M2 and the domestic gold price in long term. On the contrary, it has a negative relationship with the inflation while it does not have any connection to the exchange rate and stock price index. In short term, the current stock price index has proportional to the stock price index last month and inversely proportional to the exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment indicates that the Vietnam stock market converges to the equilibrium about 8 months (adjusted approximately 13.04% per month) to reach equilibrium in the long term.


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Margarita Ekadjaja ◽  
Daisy Dianasari

This research is done with the aim to know whether some macroeconomic variables, which are inflation rate, certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBI) rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on the movement of the composite stock price index (IHSG) at the Indonesia stock exchange (BEI) partially and simultaneously in the period of 2006–2014. The research population is inflation rate, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD. Data analysis in this research is multiple regression by using time series monthly data of 2006–2014. Research results show that partially inflation rate gives positive significant impact on IHSG, SBI rate has negative significant impact on IHSG, and exchange rate of IDR/USD has positive significant impact on IHSG.  Simultaneously it shows that inflation, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on IHSG at BEI to the period of year 2006 – 2014.  Those variables affect IHSG by 58,74%, while other variables affect IHSG by 41,26%.  That information can be used by investors to make decision on their investment.Keywords: inflation, SBI, exchange rate, IHSG, BEI.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Fadhel Kesarditama ◽  
Haryadi Haryadi ◽  
Yohanes Vyn Amzar

This study aims to analyze the trend of macroeconomic variables and gold prices in Indonesia and to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on gold prices in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach. The data used is secondary data from January 2014-December 2019. The analytical tools and techniques used are trend analysis with a linear trend approach and multiple linear regression models using the Ordinary Least Square method. The five research variables that were processed showed that there were differences in the direction of the data trend. Where the variables of Gold Price, Exchange Rate, and Composite Stock Price Index show a positive trend, while the variables of Inflation and World Crude Oil Prices show a negative trend. Furthermore, the variables of Exchange Rate, world Crude Oil Price, and Composite Stock Price Index show a positive and significant influence on the Gold Price in Indonesia. While the inflation variable shows a negative and significant effect on the Gold Price in Indonesia. Keywords: Inflation, foreign exchange,crude oil prices, idx composite and gold prices


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulyono Mulyono

Stock market generally has the stock price index that measures the performance of stock trading, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has a stock price index that is widely known as Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). During its development, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has many alternative indexes that measure the performance of stock trading. Research that is to be conducted on the correlation between return of the stock index listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange and return of Jakarta Composite Index. Return stock index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely, LQ45 Index, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), KOMPAS100 Index, BISNIS-27 Index, PEFINDO25 Index and SRI-KEHATI Index, has a close relationship with the return Jakarta Composite,Index which is a reflection of the movement of all existing stock in the market. Return of stocks index that have the highest coefficient correlation is KOMPAS100 In dex, which have return index coefficient correlation is 0.949, thus KOMPAS100 Index that consisting of 100 stocks, based on the results of the study can be used as an alternative investment to get a return that is at least equal or close to the yield given by Jakarta Composite Index(IHSG) that consists of 445 stocks


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Amna Mawardi

In the midst of uncertain economic condition, nowadays people tend to secure the potential assests they have, and think how to take advantage of the assets they have in order to keep it high in value for a long period of time. One of the way is by invest in the form of securities traded in the capital market. That is why every investor in the capital market urgently require a relevant informations on trend of transactions as reference in making investment decisions. One of the required information is stock market index. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect 0f macro economic indicators, US Dollar exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and money supply on stock market index in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The method used in this research is using multiple linear regression. Data obtained from SEKI -  Bank Indonesia (Economic and Financial Statistics - Central Bank of The Republic of Indonesia) and  IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange), in the form of secondary data of monthly period in year 2011 – 2015, collected by documentation techniniques. The results showed that partially variable of US Dollar exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, and money supply have no effect on the stock price index of financial sector. Whereas universally interest rates have a significant positive effect on the stock price index of financial sector. Over all simultaneously US Dollar exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, and money supply have an effect on the stock price index of financial sector.   Keywords: exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply, and stock market index.


2014 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 76-88
Author(s):  
Thủy Thân Thị Thu ◽  
Thảo Phạm Thị Bích

Fluctuations in stock price index are always the focus of investors’ and listed companies’ interest, so the exploration of factors affecting this index is crucial. This paper examines the impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on VN-Index. The results confirm positive impacts of business confidence and consumer confidence on the index, but they are not remarkably high. Thence, the study proposes solutions to the improvement in business confidence and consumer confidence to help the Vietnam’s stock market grow in a stable and sustainable manner.


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