scholarly journals THE INFORMAL ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA: A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 97-113
Author(s):  
Abiola Lydia Aina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Fixed Parameter ◽  
Flexible Least Squares ◽  
The Relationship

Studies on the relationship between the informal economy and economic growth have been inconclusive as to whether the positive or negative relationship dominates. These results are partly due to the type of estimation technique such as fixed-parameter techniques. Fixed parameter techniques have been used to observe the relationship between economic growth and the informal economy. A caveat to the fixed-parameter estimation techniques used to observe the relationship between the informal economy and economic growth is the inability to account for annual disruptions. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between the informal economy and economic growth in Nigeria in the period from 1991 to 2015 using the Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) model. The TVP model is estimated in two stages. First, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression is estimated and the outcome is subjected to the flexible least-squares approach. The results show the dominance of the negative effects of the informal economy on economic growth. The outcomes also reveal that overtime movements of time-varying parameters in the informal economy and economic growth are connected with economic and political events. This paper recommends the absorption of the informal economy into the official economy through government policy.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) To Domestic Employment Levels in South Africa: A Vector Autoregressive Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 110-121
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba, ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
South African ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Several empirical works have yielded mixed and controversial results with regard to the effects of FDI on employment and economic growth. The primary focus of this study is to investigate the contribution of FDI to domestic employment levels in the context of the South African economy. The analyses of the study were carried out using the annual time series data from 1980 to 2015. The macroeconomic variables employed in the empirical investigation include employment, FDI, GDP, inflation, trade openness and unit labour costs. The study used secondary data from the South African Reserve Bank and Statistics South Africa database. The study estimated a Vector Autoregressive/ Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VAR/VECM) approach to conduct empirical analysis. However, the study also employed single equation estimation techniques, including the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) models as supporting tools to verify the VAR/VECM results. This study provides strong evidence of a significant negative relationship between FDI and employment levels in the South African economy. Empirical analysis of the study suggests that the effect of economic growth on employment is highly positive and significant in South Africa’s economy. The study recommends that policymakers ought to invest more in productive sectors that aim to promote economic growth and development to boost employment opportunities in South Africa.

scholarly journals The human capital–economic growth nexus in SSA countries: what can strengthen the relationship?

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 1143-1159
Author(s):  
Roseline Tapuwa Karambakuwa ◽  
Ronney Ncwadi ◽  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ssa Countries

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth for a selected sample of nine SSA countries between 1980 and 2014 using a panel econometric approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a log-linearized endogenous using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least squares (POLS) applied to our panel data time series.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows an insignificant effect of human capital on economic growth for our selected sample. These findings remain unchanged even after adding interactive terms to human capital, which are representatives of government spending as well as foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, the authors establish a positive and significant effect of the interactive term between urbanization and human capital on economic growth.Practical implicationsThe results emphasize the need for African policymakers to develop urbanized, “smart”, technologically driven cities within the SSA region as a platform toward strengthening the impact of human capital-economic growth relationship.Originality/valueThis study becomes the first in the literature to validate the human capital–urbanization–growth relationship for African countries.

The Role of Urbanisation in the Economic Development Process: Evidence from Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sakiru Adebola Solarin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between urbanisation and economic growth, while controlling for the agricultural sector, industrial development and government expenditure in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run relationship between the variables over the period 1961–2012. In the process of estimating the long-run coefficients, the ARDL method is augmented with a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator and a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator. The direction of causality between the variables is examined through the vector error correction method (VECM) Granger causality test. The results establish the existence of a long-run relationship in the variables. The results of the long-run regressions indicate the presence of long-run causality from urbanisation, agriculture and industrialisation to economic growth. Due to the deficiencies associated with the single-equation methods (including the ARDL model), we also use the structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to analyse the relationship between the variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses derived from the SVECM method suggest that urbanisation, agriculture and industrialisation are important determinants of economic growth. The implications of the results are discussed. JEL Classification: Q43, O55, O18

scholarly journals EXAMINING THE SOURCES OF SOVEREIGN RISK FOR SOUTH AFRICA: A TIME VARYING FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-45
Author(s):  
Sheunesu Zhou ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
South African ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Flexible Least Squares

This paper analyzes the determinants of the South African long-term sovereign bond yield spread using 10-year bond yield spread. We employ the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag and Flexible Least Squares techniques to demonstrate the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the yield spread. Our results show that the short-term interest rate is positively related to the bond yield spread both in the short and long run. We also establish a long-run positive influence of government debt on the bond yield spread whilst on the other hand, economic growth, the nominal effective exchange rate, stock market returns and bank credit all have a negative impact on the bond yield spread in the long run. We examine the time varying coefficient of government debt and reveal that the long-run impact of government debt has varied over the period under analysis. Time varying coefficients capture some important periods in the history of the South African economy, indicatingthat underlying economic conditions and exogenous shocks influence the determination of sovereign risk. Our results imply the need for synchronization of fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, economic policy should address economic growth and macroeconomic instability to complement deleveraging efforts aimed at curbing sovereign credit risk.

scholarly journals Threshold Effects of Import Dependence on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-219
Author(s):  
Oziengbe Scott AIGHEYISI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Threshold Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study uses annual time series data spanning 1981–2018 to investigate the threshold effects of import dependence on economic growth in Nigeria. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) techniques are employed for estimation of a quadratic regression model to determine the nature of the relationship between aggregate import dependence and economic growth. It is found that the relationship is concave, that is, it follows an inverted-U shape. The conditional least squares estimator is thereafter employed to estimate the threshold model specified to determine the threshold level of import dependence. The study finds a threshold level of 26% for aggregate import dependence. Below this threshold, import dependence positively affects economic growth; above the threshold, the growth effect of import dependence is adverse. Furthermore, it is found that the long-run growth effect of Inflation is adverse, and investment is favourable to long-run economic growth. Based on these findings, the paper recommends efforts by Nigeria’s government to reduce import dependence below the estimated threshold of 26%, control inflation and encourage investment so as to enhance the growth of the nation’s economy.

scholarly journals Can One Promote a Delegation of the Bilateral Aid to Multilateral Donors to Improve Foreign Aid Effect on Economic Growth in ECOWAS (Note 1) Countries?

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
W. Jean Marie Kébré
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Bilateral Aid ◽  
Multilateral Aid ◽  
Multilateral Institutions ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Relationship

<p><em>This article analyzes the relationship between external aid and economic growth in the ECOWAS region, with a focus on bilateral and multilateral aid effects. The key idea behind this analysis is an argument of Svensson</em><em> </em><em>(2000)</em><em> that multilateral aid is more effective than bilateral aid because of the high degree of altruism of bilateral donors. He therefore suggested a delegation of bilateral aid to multilateral institutions. To appreciate his suggestion, this analysis used panel data from the 16 ECOWAS countries from the period 1984 to 2014. The results of the estimates, based on the dynamic least squares estimator (DOLS), show a negative effect of foreign aid on economic growth. This negative effect on economic growth persists when the components of aid are introduced into the model. In addition, results highlight that governance is a channel through which foreign aid affect positively economic growth. In these conditions, bilateral aid is more effective on economic growth than multilateral aid. These results about foreign aid received by ECOWAS countries invalidates</em><em> </em><em>Svensson’s</em><em> </em><em>(</em><a title="Svensson, 2000 #5" href="#_ENREF_1"><em>2000</em></a><em>)</em><em> theory. Therefore, a delegation of bilateral aid to multilateral institutions is not relevant because bilateral aid contributes more to economic growth if governance is taken into account.</em></p>

scholarly journals Informality and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Yelwa ◽  
A. J. Adam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Formal Sector ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Demand Deposit ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
The Relationship

<p><em>The paper examines the impact of informal sector activities on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980-2014. The contributions of informal sector activities to the growth of Nigerian economy cannot be over emphasized. It is the source of livelihood to the majority of poor, unskilled, socially marginalized and female population and is the vital means of survival for the people in the country lacking proper safety nets and unemployment insurance especially those lacking skills from formal sector jobs. The relationship between informality and economic growth is not clear because the sector is not regulated by the law also there is no concrete evidence that this sector enhances growth because the sector’s contributions to growth is not measured. The use of endogenous growth model becomes relevant in this study. The theory emphasizes the role of production on the long-run via a higher rate of technological innovation. The variables that were tested are official economy nominal GDP, informal economy nominal GDP, currency in circulation, demand deposit, ratio of currency in circulation to demand deposit, narrow money, informal economy as percentage of official economy. ADF test was conducted to establish that the data series of all variables are stationary t levels. Having established the stationarity test we also, conducted causality test of the response of official economy nominal GDP to informal economy nominal GDP. In conclusion, the impact of informal sector economy on economic growth in Nigeria is quiet commendable. Even though, the relationship between informality and economic growth is not straight. The paper recommended thus, the need for the government to integrate the activities of the informal economy into formal sector and size of the sector is measured and regulated because their roles are commendable. As it will improve tax collection and enhance fiscal policy.</em></p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Model Persamaan Simultan pada Analisis Hubungan Kemiskian dan PDRB

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 810
Author(s):  
Rokhana Dwi Bekti ◽  
David David ◽  
Gita N ◽  
Priscillia Priscillia ◽  
Serlyana Serlyana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Estimation ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Two Stage Least Squares ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Simultaneous Model

Simultaneous model is a model for some equation which have simultaneous relationships. It was often found in econometrics, such as the relationship between Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) and poverty. GDP is a common indicator that can be used to determine the economic growth occurred in region. Meanwhile, poverty is one of the indicators to measure the society welfare. Information about these relathionships were important to perform the relathionsips between GDP and poverty. So this research conducted an analysis to obtain simultaneous models between GDRP and poverty. Estimation of the parameters used is Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation (2SLS). The data used are 33 provinces in Indonesia at 2010. By α = 5%, it was conclude that variable which significant effect on GDRP is poverty, export, and import. Meanwhile, the variables that significantly affect poverty are population. The simultaneous model (α = 5%) also conclude that there is no simultaneous relationship between GDRP and poverty. However, with α = 25%, there is a simultaneous relationship between GDRP and poverty.

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