scholarly journals The Existence of Long-Run PPP: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Sulistiadi Dono Iskandar
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Conflicting Result ◽  
Long Run ◽  
One Step

McNown & Wallace (1989) argued that PPP will tend to holds in less developed countries due to the domination of nominal factors in the economy. In this study we try to investigate the existence of long-run PPP in eight countries consisting four developed and developing countries. Here we show that there is a strong evidence that long-run PPP holds for Germany, United Kingdom, and Chile. Furthermore, the additional tests also show that symmetry and proportionality conditions seem to hold in the three economies. As for other five economies, long-run PPP seems to be absence. Although one step general Error Correction Model and Johansen-Juselius cointegration procedure generates conflicting result, the result of both technique do not show a tendency for PPP to hold in developing countries thus rejecting argument proposed by McNown and Wallace. AbstrakMcNown & Wallace (1989) mengemukakan argumen bahwa PPP akan cenderung berlaku di negara-negara yang belum maju disebabkan adanya dominasi faktor nominal dalam perekonomian. Dalam penelitian ini kami mencoba untuk menyelidiki keberadaan dari long-run PPP di delapan negara yang terdiri dari empat negara maju dan berkembang. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan adanya bukti kuat bahwa long-run PPP berlaku pada Jerman, Inggris, dan Cile. Hasil, tes lanjutan juga menunjukkan bahwa kondisi simetri dan proporsionalitas nampak bertahan di tiga negara tersebut. Sedangkan untuk lima negara lainnya, long-run PPP tidak nampak keberadaannya. Meskipun hasil pada one step Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Johansen-Juselius cointegration procedure menghasilkan hasil yang bertentangan, namun hasil dari kedua metode tersebut konsisten tidak menunjukkan kecenderungan akan eksistensi PPP di negara berkembang.Kata kunci: Purchasing Power Parity; Tes Kointegrasi; Negara Berkembang; Negara MajuJEL classifications: F31; F4

scholarly journals Model Dinamik Paritas Suku Bunga Indonesia Menggunakan Error Correction Model

JURNAL PUNDI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elva Dona
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
National Income ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Interest Rate Parity ◽  
Correction Model

The purchasing power parity doctrine in determining exchange rate changes focuses on  price factor changes (Jiang, Li, Chang, & Su, 2013)This study examines how currency and interest rates interact with each other to achieve a balance position in the foreign exchange market.Through this approach the exchange rate is determined by the balance of demand and supply between two currencies. This approach also explains how the influence of economic variables such as money supply, national income, price level, and interest rate on the formation of currency rates. Data using  the first quarter of 2000 through the fourth quarter of 2013, With econometric analysis through cointegration approach and Error Correction Model will be tested the validity of interest rate parity condition in Indonesi.Estimation of the error correction model variable (V), indicating that the variable passed the t test at 5% confidence level. It indicates that the models specification is acceptable and there is cointegration between the observed variables.

scholarly journals Analisis Purchasing Power Parity Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan Error Correction Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aula Ahmad Hafidh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Power Relationship ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Mean

This papers tests for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between Indonesia and its main trading partner United States (US) using Error Correction Model (ECM). We examine the mean-reverting properties of real exchange rates. The tests shows that PPP is hold underlying the theory, purchasing power relationship is shown to exist. The model is, furthermore, shown to have significant forecasting power

The Methodology of Cointegration

1992 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 237-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaniel Beck
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Economic Circumstance ◽  
Economics Department ◽  
Technical Area

It is hardly surprising that I applaud the fine work of both Durr and Ostrom and Smith. I am on record in favor of the utility of the error correction model (e.g., Beck 1985) and it is impossible to obtain a visa to visit the economics department at UCSD without swearing an oath of loyalty to the methodology of cointegration. The two works here are notable for their methodological sophistication, their exposition of a relatively unknown and highly technical area, and, most important, their substantive contributions. Both articles show that political attitudes (approval and policy mood) adjust, in the long run, to changes in objective and subjective economic circumstance. Both articles are good examples of the synergy of methods and theory, since it is the methodology of cointegration that leads to this type of theorizing, and this type of theorizing can most easily be tested in the context of cointegration or error correction.

scholarly journals An application of the error correction model in analyzing the long run equilibrium between Ghana’s exports and imports

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-62
Author(s):  
Henry de-Graft Acquah ◽  
Joyce De-Graft Acquah
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Coefficient ◽  
Equilibrium Relation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This study investigates the long-run relationship between Ghana’s exports and imports for the period of 1948 to 2012. Using the Engle Granger two-step procedure we find that Ghana’s exports and imports are cointegrated. However, the slope coefficients from the cointegration equations were not statistically equal to 1. Furthermore, application of the error correction model reveals that 1% increase in the imports will significantly result in 0.56% increase in exports, suggesting that the exports’ responsiveness to imports is low. The estimated error correction coefficient suggests that 32% of the deviation from the long run equilibrium relation is eliminated, leaving 68% to persist into the next period. These results suggest persistence in the trade deficit and an option of curbing the deficit is to re-order the relationship between imports and exports with a view to reducing imports demand. These results imply that though Ghana’s past macroeconomic policies have been effective in bringing its imports and exports into a long run equilibrium, it is yet to satisfy the sufficient condition for sustainability of foreign deficit.

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Price Transmission and Factors Influencing the Price of Onions in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Yohana James Mgale
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the transmission of prices between marketing agents and the factors affecting onion prices at the consumer level. The Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG) was used to test the price transmission by including the impact of the rise and fall of producer, wholesale and retail prices in past periods. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to the factors affecting onion prices. The test results showed that price transmission was asymmetrical in the short and long-run. With regard to factors, the results show that consumer price in the short-run was influenced by wholesale prices, producer prices and the price of fuel while in the long-run it was influenced by wholesale prices, producer price, price of fuel and consumer prices in the previous period (t-1). These results suggest the existence of a short-term adjustment cost and a long-term market power which distorts price transmission.

Exports, financial development and economic growth in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the relationship between exports, financial development and economic growth in case of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model are applied to test the long-run and short-run relationships, respectively. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by the vector error correction model Granger causality test and robustness of causality analysis is tested by applying innovative accounting approach. Findings – The analysis confirms cointegration for the long-run relation between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results indicate that economic growth and financial development spur exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals feedback hypothesis that exists between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports, and, exports and economic growth. Originality/value – This study provides new insights for policy makers to sustain exports growth by stimulating economic growth and developing financial sector in Pakistan.

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