Understanding Molecular Clocks and Time Trees
This chapter examines molecular clocks and time trees. Although laden with numerous process assumptions that may or may not be true (or knowable), the idea is appealingly straightforward: if amino acid substitutions in proteins occurred at a relatively steady pace that were more or less constant both over time and along each of the branches of a diverging evolutionary tree, then the number of substitutions would be directly related to the time since the taxa in question diverged from one another. However, evidence does not support a universal molecular clock. Evidence might or might not support “local” clocklike evolution among closely related taxa over relatively short time spans. Although absolute minimum ages for clades may be inferred from fossils, from biogeographical patterns, or extrapolated from secondary calibrations, such age estimates are subject to potentially significant error due to vagaries of geological dating as well as ambiguities of fossil identity. The test of a time tree hypothesis is to discover new fossil evidence that corroborates or falsifies it.