Comparison of Empirical Models and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Estimating Hourly Total Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface at Alexandria City, Egypt

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulwahab Kassem ◽  
Abdulwahed Aboukarima ◽  
Nasser Ashmawy ◽  
Moamen Zayed
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muna A Alzukrah ◽  
Yosof M Khalifa

The prediction of solar radiation is very important tool in climatology, hydrology and energy applications, as it permits estimating solar data for locations where measurements are not available. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to predict the monthly global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Libya. The real meteorological solar radiation data from 5 stations for the period of 1982 - 2009 with diffrent latitudes and longitudes were used in the current study. The data set is divided into two subsets; the fist is used for training and the latter is used for testing the model. (ANFIS) combines fuzzy logic and neural network techniques that are used in order to gain more effiency. The statistical performance parameters such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the coeffient of effiency (E) were calculated to check the adequacy of the model. On the basis of coeffient of effiency, as well as the scatter diagrams and the error modes, the predicted results indicate that the neuro-fuzzy model gives reasonable results: accuracy of about 92% - 96% and the RMSE ranges between 0.22 - 0.35 kW.hr/m2/day


2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Pour-Ali Baba ◽  
Jalal Shiri ◽  
Ozgur Kisi ◽  
Ahmad Fakheri Fard ◽  
Sungwon Kim ◽  
...  

Daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0), as a dependent variable, was estimated for two weather stations in South Korea, using 8 years (1985–1992) of measurements of independent variables of air temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed and relative humidity. The model uses the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for estimating daily ET0. In the first part of the study, the applied models were trained, tested and validated using various combinations of the recorded independent variables, which corresponded to the Hargreaves–Samani, Priestly–Taylor and FAO56-PM equations. The goodness of fit for the models was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS). In the second part of the study, the estimated solar radiation data were applied as input parameters (for the same input combinations, as the first part), instead of recorded sunshine values. The results indicated that the both applied ANFIS and ANN models performed quite well in ET processes from the available climatic data. The results also showed that the application of estimated solar radiation data instead of the recorded sunshine values decreases the models’ accuracy.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-48
Author(s):  
Erwan Ahmad Ardiansyah ◽  
Rina Mardiati ◽  
Afaf Fadhil

Prakiraan atau peramalan beban listrik dibutuhkan dalam menentukan jumlah listrik yang dihasilkan. Ini menentukan  agar tidak terjadi beban berlebih yang menyebabkan pemborosan atau kekurangan beban listrik yang mengakibatkan krisis listrik di konsumen. Oleh karena itu di butuhkan prakiraan atau peramalan yang tepat untuk menghasilkan energi listrik. Teknologi softcomputing dapat digunakan  sebagai metode alternatif untuk prediksi beban litrik jangka pendek salah satunya dengan metode  Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System pada penelitian tugas akhir ini. Data yang di dapat untuk mendukung penelitian ini adalah data dari APD PLN JAWA BARAT yang berisikan laporan data beban puncak bulanan penyulang area gardu induk majalaya dari januari 2011 sampai desember 2014 sebagai data acuan dan data aktual januari-desember 2015. Data kemudian dilatih menggunakan metode ANFIS pada software MATLAB versi b2010. Dari data hasil pelatihan data ANFIS kemudian dilakukan perbandingan dengan data aktual dan data metode regresi meliputi perbandingan anfis-aktual, regresi-aktual dan perbandingan anfis-regresi-aktual. Dari perbandingan disimpulkan bahwa data metode anfis lebih mendekati data aktual dengan rata-rata 1,4%, menunjukan prediksi ANFIS dapat menjadi referensi untuk peramalan beban listrik dimasa depan.


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