scholarly journals Comparative Sensitivity Performance of the Discriminant Function and Logistic Regression under Different Training and Test Samples for Predicting Birth Outcomes

2020 ◽  
pp. 47-60
Author(s):  
K. A. Asosega ◽  
K. Opoku-Ameyaw ◽  
D. Otoo ◽  
M. K. Mac-Ocloo ◽  
R. Ayinzoya
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Birth Outcomes ◽  
Birth Outcome ◽  
Test Sample ◽  
P Value ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Gestational Period ◽  
Sample Data

Population increases with time through birth, and researchers have often used either Logistic regression model or Discriminant analysis to study and classify birth outcomes. In this paper, the authors sought to investigate the sensitivity of the two methods used separately to explain and classify birth outcomes under different training and test samples. Out of 5000 birth outcomes data comprising of 1250 stillbirth cases and 3750 live births and with four test samples (50%, 40%, 30% and 25%). The Discriminant Analysis averagely correctly classified 89.8% of birth outcome cases compared to 82.4% for the logistic regression. The Discriminant analysis on the average correctly predicted 94.2% of live births compared to 83.1% for the Logistic regression. On stillbirth, 75.7% and 80.9% success rates were recorded for Discriminant Analysis and Logistic regression respectively. All predictors (Maternal Age, Gestational period, fetus weight, parity and Gravida) were statistically significant (p-value < 0.01) in determining birth outcomes of pregnancies in both methods. The results showed that, both techniques are almost similar in predicting birth outcome. However, the Discriminant analysis is preferred for the 25% and 50% test samples whiles, the logistic regression performed well under the 30% and 40% test sample data.

scholarly journals A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE MULTIPLE LOGISTIC REGRESSION, LINEAR DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND QUADRATIC DISCRIMINANT FOR ESTIMATING THE MISCLASSIFICATION ERROR RATE OF INFANT BIRTH OUTCOME

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 358-367
Author(s):  
O. Akangoziri ◽  
C. N. Okoli
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Linear Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Birth Outcome ◽  
Misclassification Error ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Misclassification Error Rate ◽  
Infant Birth

This study examined comparison of the Multiple logistic regression, Linear discriminant analysis and Quadratic discriminant in estimating the infant birth outcome and misclassification error rate of birth outcomes with factors of infant mortality in Anambra State, Nigeria. The birth outcomes of interest were the Neonatal death, Still birth and Alive. Secondary source of data were obtained from the records department of General Hospital Onitsha from 2007-2016. The data comprises of Status of infant birth, Mothers parity, Age of mother, Weight of baby, Mothers Education Status, Number of Bookings before gestation and Gestation Age. The data analysis is performed using R-software. The result of the findings from the multiple logistic regression showed that Mothers Education Status (MES) and Booking contributed significantly on the logistic model while factors of Parity, Sex, Age of Mother (AOM), Year, GA and Birth Weight (BW) were found to be insignificant on birth outcomes. Also observed that the misclassification error rate for birth outcome for the said approach is found to be 0.5992 (59.92%). More so, findings of the study equally showed that the prior probabilities of the groups for the linear and quadratic discriminant analysis were 0.228503, 0.40168 and 0.36981 for Alive, Neonatal death and Still birth respectively. Further findings revealed that the Mothers Education Status and Bookings Status have the greatest impact for first and second linear function respectively. In addition, the result of the misclassification error rate for birth outcome using the linear discriminant analysis is 0.5931 (59.31%). The misclassification error rate for birth outcome based on   quadratic discriminant analysis is 0.5956 (59.56%). Based on the findings of this study, linear discriminant approach is the best alternative in estimating misclassification error rate of infant birth outcome followed by quadratic discriminant analysis and the least is multiple logistic regression. The findings clearly confirmed that the linear discriminant analysis is the best with misclassification error rate of 59.31%.

scholarly journals Under-five Mortality and Associated Factors among Children Born from 15-49 Years Old Mothers in Haramaya Town, Eastern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmed ◽  
Melake Demena ◽  
Zelalem Teklemariam ◽  
Assefa Desalew ◽  
Nega Assefa
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Household Size ◽  
P Value ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Colostrum Feeding

Abstract Background: The global under-five mortality rate has dropped from almost 90 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 43 in 2015. The Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey, 2019 shows 55 under-five deaths per 1,000 live births. In the eastern part of Ethiopia, evidence from the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Kersa district of East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Region suggested the decline of under-five mortality rate from 131.8 per 1000 live births in 2008 to 77.4 per 1000 live births in 2013. The death rates still remain far from the Sustainable Development Goals’ target reduction to 25 or less per 1000 live births by 2030. However, the magnitude and determinants of under-five mortality is not studied in Haramaya town. Objective: To assess the under-five mortality rate and associated factors among children born during August 07, 2015- August 06, 2020 in Haramaya town, east Ethiopia by August 07–31/2020. Methodology: Quantitative cross-sectional population-based study was conducted on 391 pairs of 15-49 years old mothers and their live-born under-five children selected using systematic random sampling technique from Haramaya town to cmpare mortality between <=24 and >=25 mother’s age groups. Data were collected using interview-based questionnaire; double entered into EpiData 3.1; and then exported to statistical package for social sciences program version 20.0 for analysis. Binary logistic regression analysis (p-value <0.20) was performed to examine crude association of predictors with under-five mortality, and then multiple logistic regression analysis (p-value <0.05) to measure the statistical association. Results: The death of 28 out of 372 live births gave an under-five mortality rate of 75 per 1000 live births. Children born in households with less than 6 members had 7. 98 times higher odds of dying than those born in households with at least 6 members (AOR =7.98, 95% CI =1.59-40.17). Those children who did not feed colostrum were associated with 17.45 times increased risk of under-five deaths compared to colostrum-fed ones (AOR =17.45, 95% CI =6.54-46.55). Conclusion: The study suggests that 75 per 1000 live births die before celebrating their fifth birth day. Household size and colostrum feeding are the significantly associated factors.Recommendation: All concerned should inform the mothers the role of identified factors like household size and colostrum feeding in child survival.

scholarly journals Adverse Birth Out Comes and Associated Factors among Delivered Mothers in Dessie Referral Hospital, North East Ethiopia

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niguss Cherie ◽  
Amare Mebratu
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Antenatal Care ◽  
Birth Outcomes ◽  
Birth Outcome ◽  
Hemoglobin Level ◽  
Referral Hospital ◽  
Adverse Birth Outcome ◽  
Adverse Birth Outcomes ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Dessie Referral Hospital

Introduction: Though there are studies on the various forms of adverse birth outcomes particularly in developing countries, there is limited information on determinant maternal and fetal factors of adverse birth outcomes at Dessie referral hospital including north east Ethiopia. Objective: To assess adverse birth outcomes and associated factors among delivered mothers in Dessie referral hospital, Dessie, Ethiopia. Methods: Institutional based cross sectional study design was conducted in Dessie referral hospital from February 30-March 30, 2017. Random sampling technique was used and 462 sample size was deployed. The collected data was checked; coded and entered to Epi info 7.3 and exported to SPSS version 20 for further analysis. Bivariate logistic regression model used to determine the independent association of dependent and independent variables on the bases of COR; 95 percent of confidence level and significance level of 0.25 Those variables which had significance level of less than 0.25 transferred to multivariable logistic regression. Multivariable logistic regression also used to control the possible effects of confounder variables on the basis of AOR; 95 percent of confidence level and significance level of 0.05. Result: A total of 462 delivered mothers participated in this study which yields 100% response rate. The study finding showed that the proportion of adverse birth outcome among the study participants was 32.5%. Out of 462 births 8.2% were still birth, 16.7% were low birth weight, 15.2% preterm and 8.4% were with visible birth defects. Mothers who didn’t attend antenatal care were 4 times more likely to have adverse birth outcome when compared to those who attended antenatal care follow up, [AOR=4.01, 95% CI(2.8,8.3 )]. Similarly, mothers with hemoglobin level less than 11 mg/dl were encountered adverse birth outcomes 3 times more when compared to those with hemoglobin level greater or equal to 11 mg/dl [AOR=3.04, 95% CI(1.62, 5.71)]. The presence of any form of pregnancy complication to current pregnancy were 3 times more likely to result in adverse birth outcomes as compared to no complication [AOR=2.9, 95% CI (1.64, 5.15)]. Conclusion and Recommendation: proportion of adverse birth outcome among the study participants was high. Lack of antenatal care, hemoglobin level, and pregnancy complications, middle upper arm circumference, were predictors of adverse birth outcomes. Increasing antenatal care uptake, prevention and treatment of chronic medical illness, and anemia and improvements in quality of maternal health services require strict attention.

scholarly journals Under-five Mortality and Associated Factors among Children Born from 15-49 Years Old Mothers in Haramaya Town, Eastern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmed ◽  
Melake Demena ◽  
Zelalem Teklemariam ◽  
Assefa Desalew ◽  
Nega Assefa
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Household Size ◽  
P Value ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Colostrum Feeding

Abstract Background: The global under-five mortality rate has dropped from almost 90 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 43 in 2015. The Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey, 2019 shows 55 under-five deaths per 1,000 live births. In the eastern part of Ethiopia, evidence from the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Kersa district of East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Region suggested the decline of under-five mortality rate from 131.8 per 1000 live births in 2008 to 77.4 per 1000 live births in 2013. The death rates still remain far from the Sustainable Development Goals’ target reduction to 25 or less per 1000 live births by 2030. However, the magnitude and determinants of under-five mortality is not studied in Haramaya town. Objective: To assess the under-five mortality rate and associated factors among children born during August 07, 2015- August 06, 2020 in Haramaya town, east Ethiopia by August 07–31/2020. Methodology: Quantitative cross-sectional population-based study was conducted on 391 pairs of 15-49 years old mothers and their live-born under-five children selected using systematic random sampling technique from Haramaya town to cmpare mortality between <=24 and >=25 mother’s age groups. Data were collected using interview-based questionnaire; double entered into EpiData 3.1; and then exported to statistical package for social sciences program version 20.0 for analysis. Binary logistic regression analysis (p-value <0.20) was performed to examine crude association of predictors with under-five mortality, and then multiple logistic regression analysis (p-value <0.05) to measure the statistical association. Results: The death of 28 out of 372 live births gave an under-five mortality rate of 75 per 1000 live births. Children born in households with less than 6 members had 7. 98 times higher odds of dying than those born in households with at least 6 members (AOR =7.98, 95% CI =1.59-40.17). Those children who did not feed colostrum were associated with 17.45 times increased risk of under-five deaths compared to colostrum-fed ones (AOR =17.45, 95% CI =6.54-46.55). Conclusion: The study suggests that 75 per 1000 live births die before celebrating their fifth birth day. Household size and colostrum feeding are the significantly associated factors.Recommendation: All concerned should inform the mothers the role of identified factors like household size and colostrum feeding in child survival.

scholarly journals Under-five Mortality and Associated Factors among Children Born from 15-49 Years Old Mothers in Haramaya Town, Eastern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ahmed ◽  
Melake Demena ◽  
Zelalem Teklemariam
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Household Size ◽  
P Value ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Colostrum Feeding

Abstract Background: The global under-five mortality rate has dropped from almost 90 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 43 in 2015. The Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey, 2019 shows 55 under-five deaths per 1,000 live births. In the eastern part of Ethiopia, evidence from the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Kersa district of East Hararghe Zone, Oromia Region suggested the decline of under-five mortality rate from 131.8 per 1000 live births in 2008 to 77.4 per 1000 live births in 2013. The death rates still remain far from the Sustainable Development Goals’ target reduction to 25 or less per 1000 live births by 2030. However, the magnitude and determinants of under-five mortality is not studied in Haramaya town. Objective: To assess the under-five mortality rate and associated factors among children born during August 07, 2015- August 06, 2020 in Haramaya town, east Ethiopia by August 07–31/2020. Methodology: Quantitative cross-sectional population-based study was conducted on 391 pairs of 15-49 years old mothers and their live-born under-five children selected using systematic random sampling technique from Haramaya town to cmpare mortality between <=24 and >=25 mother’s age groups. Data were collected using interview-based questionnaire; double entered into EpiData 3.1; and then exported to statistical package for social sciences program version 20.0 for analysis. Binary logistic regression analysis (p-value <0.20) was performed to examine crude association of predictors with under-five mortality, and then multiple logistic regression analysis (p-value <0.05) to measure the statistical association. Results: The death of 28 out of 372 live births gave an under-five mortality rate of 75 per 1000 live births. Children born in households with less than 6 members had 7. 98 times higher odds of dying than those born in households with at least 6 members (AOR =7.98, 95% CI =1.59-40.17). Those children who did not feed colostrum were associated with 17.45 times increased risk of under-five deaths compared to colostrum-fed ones (AOR =17.45, 95% CI =6.54-46.55). Conclusion: The study suggests that 75 per 1000 live births die before celebrating their fifth birth day. Household size and colostrum feeding are the significantly associated factors.Recommendation: All concerned should inform the mothers the role of identified factors like household size and colostrum feeding in child survival.

scholarly journals Assessments of Birth Outcome of Twin Delivery and Associated Factors among Newborns in Dessie Referral Hospital, Dessie, Ethiopia, 2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Nigusie Abebaw ◽  
Mohammed Abdu ◽  
Natnael Girma
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Birth Outcomes ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Birth Outcome ◽  
Rural Residence ◽  
Twin Birth ◽  
Twin Delivery ◽  
Dessie Referral Hospital

Background. There was a fast improvement of twin’s birth outcomes in the past decade, but it was average in developing countries. Stillbirth, preterm birth, low birth weight, and birth asphyxia are the major contributors to poor twin birth outcomes. This study was crucial to address the gaps and clarify the outcome of twin delivery. Objectives. To assess the birth outcome of twin delivery and associated factors among newborns who were delivered in Dessie Referral Hospital, Ethiopia, 2019. Methods. Institutional-based retrospective cross-sectional study was employed among 385 maternal records from Nov 10/2013 to Dec 10/2019. Data were selected by using a random sampling technique. Frequencies, proportion, and summary statics were used to describe the study population. The data were entered into Epi Info and exported in the SPSS version 20 for analysis. All variables with p   value < 0.20 in bivariable logistic regression analysis were considered for multivariable logistic regression analysis; adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was used to measure the association variable with p   value < 0.05 which was statistically significant. Results. This finding showed that the prevalence of twin birth outcome accounts 23.4% (95 % CI, 19.2–27.5). Low birth weight 9.1%, stillbirth 4.2%, Apgar score < 7 9.1%, and neonatal death 1 % were accounted. Hypertension disorder (95% CI, 6.01(2.43–14.87)), rural residence (95% CI 2.46(1.39–4.37)), PROM (95% CI 6.39(2.52–16.16)), and no ANC follow-up (95% CI, 13.47(2.49–72.85)) were significantly associated with adverse twin birth. Conclusions and Recommendations. Magnitude of twins’ adverse birth outcome was 23.4%. Hypertension disorder, rural residence, PROM, and no ANC follow-up were significant variables for twins’ adverse birth outcome. Therefore, all healthcare providers should give sustainable educations and instructions about the importance of sticking with the recommended ANC follow-up.

scholarly journals Hubungan Paritas, Penolong Persalinan dan Jarak Kehamilan dengan Angka Kematian Bayi di Jawa Timur

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Renaldi Kurniawan ◽  
Soenarnatalina Melaniani
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
P Value ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Never Married ◽  
Live Births

Infant mortality is a major component in determining the health and well-being of a community in a country. Indonesia Health Demographic Survey in 2012 shows that infant mortality rate in Indonesia is 32 babies per 1000 live births. Infant mortality rate in eastern Java is 26 babies per 1000 live births. Infant mortality is caused by external factors and internal factors. Parity, gestational distance and birth attendant are the factors chosen to be analyzed. The objectives of the study were to analyze the relationship of parity, birth spacing and birth attendant to infant mortality rate in East Java. The type of research that is analytical research using non-reactive approach. The study took the data of the 2012 IDHS Female Woman Never married. Sampling followed the 2012 IDHS plus inclusion criteria from the researchers. The number of samples of the study was 591 mothers with a history of dead infants during the survey. The study took the data of the 2012 SDKI Female Woman Never married. Data analysis was done by multiple logistic regression. The results of the simple logistic regression analyzes have shown an association between parity> 2 children, birth attendants instead by a health professional, pregnancy spacing ≤ 4 years and spacing of pregnancy> 4 years. All independent variables entered as a candidate for the multiple logistic regression analysis of the results of the multiple logistic regression analysis was parity shows, their relationship with infant mortality with p value = 0.001, but at birth attendant with a p value of 0.66. Screening risks of pregnant mothers and handling of ill toddlers by midwives and IEC to mothers about nutrition, pregnancy care and infant care through counseling, leaflets and posters.

HUBUNGAN ANTARA UMUR DAN PENDIDIKAN IBU DENGAN KEJADIAN BBLR DI RUMAH SAKIT UMUM PUSAT DR. MOHAMMAD HOESIN PALEMBANG TAHUN 2010

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhemy Zurizah Yuhemy Zurizah ◽  
Rini Mayasari Rini Mayasari
Keyword(s):  
General Hospital ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Public Hospitals ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
P Value ◽  
Check List ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Live Births

ABSTRACT Low Birth Weight (LBW) was defined as infants born weighing less than 2.500 grams. WHO estimates that nearly all (98%) of the five million neonatal deaths in developing countries. According to City Health if Palembang Departement, infant mortality rate (IMR) in the year 2007 is 3 per 1000 live births, in 2008 four per 1000 live births, and in 2009 approximately 2 per 1000 live births. The cause of LBW is a disease, maternal age, social circumstances, maternal habits factors, fetal factors and environmental factors. LBW prognosis depending on the severity of the perinatal period such as stage of gestation (gestation getting younger or lower the baby's weight, the higher the mortality), asphyxia / ischemia brain, respiratory distress syndromesmetabolic disturbances. This study aims to determine the relationship between maternal age and educations mothers of pregnancy with the incidence of LBW in the General Hospital Dr Center. Mohammad Hoesin Palembang in 2010 This study uses the Analytical Ceoss Sectional Survey. The study population was all mothers who gave birth in public hospitals center Dr. Mohammad Hoesin Palembang in 2010 were 1.476 mothers gave birth with a large sample of 94 studies of maternal taken by systematic random sampling, ie research instument Check List. Data analysis was performed univariate and bivariate. The results of this study show from 94 mothers of LBW was found 45 people (47,9%) Which has a high risk age 26 LBW ( 27,7%) while the distance of low educations LBW (55,3%). From Chi-Square test statistic that compares the p value with significance level α = 0,05 showed a significant correlation between maternal age, where the p value = 0,002, of education mothers of pregnancy p value = 0,003 with LBW. In the general hospital center Dr. Mohammad Hoesin Palembang ini 2010. Expected to researches who will come to examine in more depth.   ABSTRAK Bayi Berat Lahir Rendah (BBLR) telah didefinisikan sebagai bayi lahir kurang dari 2.500 gram. WHO memperkirakan hampir semua (98%) dari 5 juta kematian neonatal di negara berkembang. Menurut Data Dinas Kesehatan Kota Palembang, Angka Kematian Bayi (AKB) pada tahun 2007 yaitu 3 per 1.000 kelahiran hidup, pada tahun 2008 4 per 1.000 kelahiran hidup, dan pada tahun 2009 sekitar 2 per 1.000 kelahiran hidup. Penyebab BBLR adalah penyakit, usia ibu, keadaan sosial, faktor kebiasaan ibu, dan faktor lingkungan. Prognosis BBLR tergantung dari berat ringannya masa perinatal misalnya masa gestasi (makin muda masa gestasi atau makin rendah berat bayi, makin tinggi angka kematian), asfiksia atau iskemia otak, sindrom gangguan pernafasan, gangguan metabolik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan antara umur dan pendidikan ibu dengan kejadian BBLR di Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Dr. Mohammad Hoesin Palembang Tahun 2010. Penelitian ini menggunakan survey analitik Cross sectional. Populasi penelitian ini adalah semua ibu yang melahirkan di Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Dr. Mohammad Hoesin Palembang tahun 2010 sebanyak 1.476 ibu melahirkan dengan besar sampel penelitian 94 ibu melahirkan yang diambil dengan tehnik acak sistematik, instrumen penelitian yaitu check list. Analisis data dilakukan secara univariat dan bivariat. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan dari 94 ibu didapatkan kejadian BBLR 45 orang (47,9%) yang memiliki umur resiko tinggi 26 kejadian BBLR (27,7%) sedangkan yang pendidikan rendah 52 kejadian BBLR (55,3%). Dari statistik uji Chi-square yang membandingkan p value dengan tingkat kemaknaan α = 0,05 menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan yang bermakna antara umur ibu p value (0,002) , pendidikan p value (0,003) dengan kejadian BBLR di Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Dr. Mohammad Hoesin Palembang Tahun 2010. Diharapkan bagi peneliti yang akan datang untuk meneliti lebih mendalam.

Regression model of assessment of customer solvency and banking risks in the process of lending

2019 ◽  
pp. 69-73
Author(s):  
Zoryna Yurynets ◽  
Rostyslav Yurynets ◽  
Nataliya Kunanets ◽  
Ivanna Myshchyshyn
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Computer Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Loan Risk

In the current conditions of economic development, it is important to pay attention to the study of the main types of risks, effective methods of evaluation, monitoring, analysis of banking risks. One of the main approaches to quantitatively assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers is credit scoring. The objective of credit scoring is to optimize management decisions regarding the possibility of providing bank loans. In the article, the scientific and methodological provisions concerning the formation of a regression model for assessing bank risks in the process of granting loans to borrowers has been proposed. The proposed model is based on the use of logistic regression tools, discriminant analysis with the use of expert evaluation. During the formation of a regression model, the relationship between risk factors and probable magnitude of loan risk has been established. In the course of calculations, the coefficient of the individual's solvency has been calculated. Direct computer data preparation, including the calculation of the indicators selected in the process of discriminant analysis, has been carried out in the Excel package environment, followed by their import into the STATISTICA package for analysis in the “Logistic regression” sub-module of the “Nonlinear evaluation” module. The adequacy of the constructed model has been determined using the Macfaden's likelihood ratio index. The calculated value of the Macfaden's likelihood ratio index indicates the adequacy of the constructed model. The ability to issue loans to new clients has been evaluated using a regression model. The conducted calculations show the possibility of granting a loan exclusively to the second and third clients. The offered method allows to conduct assessment of client's solvency and risk prevention at different stages of lending, facilitates the possibility to independently make informed decisions on credit servicing of clients and management of a loan portfolio, optimization of management decisions in banks. In order for a loan-based model to continue to perform its functions, it must be periodically adjusted.

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