Where to Go Next? Examining the Effect of Franchise Expansion and Location on Game-Level Attendance in Major League Soccer

Using a large dataset with over 4,000 game-level observations from Major League Soccer over the period 2006 to 2019 we investigate the determinants of attendance demand. Focusing on franchise expansion and location effects, we find that some decisions made by the organization had positive impacts on league revenues. While going to cities with a large population and already hosting nearby NFL or NBA teams is positively associated with game attendance, the presence of geographically close MLB and NHL teams is detrimental to MLS revenues. Our results suggest a need for a more nuanced and selective approach to MLS expansion policy.

Moments of Competitive Balance in Major League Soccer

In this paper, we investigate competitive balance in Major League Soccer and compare balance across talent acquisition policy regimes with a bias-corrected measure from 1996 to 2019. We evaluate multiple moments of the league talent distribution, and we add to past work by using multiple levels of aggregation that reveal heterogeneous results with respect to the distribution of talent within and across seasons. We show that there has been little improvement in competitive balance over the league's history, though there has been an increase in year-to-year stability in balance and a lower propensity for teams at the extremes of performance.

Outcomes of Surgically Treated Fifth Metatarsal Fractures in Major League Soccer Athletes

Background: Sports-related fractures of the fifth metatarsal are common in professional athletes. Data regarding outcomes of surgical management including refracture, complications, and return-to-play statistics are available for other professional American sports with a notable exception of soccer. Purpose: To quantify the burden of operative fifth metatarsal fractures in Major League Soccer (MLS) athletes, to compare outcomes as well as refracture and complication rates with other professional sports, to analyze factors that may contribute to treatment failure, and to report on return-to-play characteristics for affected players. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: We searched all injuries in the prospectively collected HealtheAthlete database for MLS for operative fifth metatarsal fractures for seasons 2013 to 2017. Additional information regarding each fracture including demographics, treatment, postoperative course, and return-to-play statistics were compiled from HealtheAthlete and supplemented by teams’ chief medical officers, coaches, trainers, and online sources. Results: There were 21 fractures in 18 players during the study period. Mean time to radiographic healing was 8.5 weeks (n = 17). Mean time to return to play was 11.1 weeks (n = 19). Of 21 fractures, 20 (95%) players returned to sport. Of 18 players, 4 (22.2%) experienced refracture. Of 18 players, 5 (27.8%) and 2 (11.1%) reported previous stress injuries on the contralateral and ipsilateral limb, respectively. Player performance characteristics showed small declines in the first year of return that improved by the second year. Conclusion: MLS athletes who sustain a sports-related fifth metatarsal fracture can expect a high rate of return to sport with time to radiographic healing and return to play as well as risk of refracture similar to other professional cohorts.

Time to Say Goodbye: A Duration Analysis of the Determinants of Coach Dismissals and Quits in Major League Soccer

This study investigates the determinants of voluntary and involuntary head coach turnovers using a large dataset of some 6,500 coach-game observations from Major League Soccer over 2004–2019. The duration analysis results show that team performance related to expected playoff qualification and performance expectations matter for both types of separations. Moreover, the findings reveal that coach reputation decreases dismissal probabilities, while coach age increases quit rates. The results of this study will be of particular interest to Major League Soccer team owners and managers as well as for business management outside the sports industry.

Financial Returns in Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer (MLS) is the top-tier professional soccer league serving the United States and Canada. This study examines factors hypothesized to impact consumer demand for professional sports on team revenue in this nascent league. The estimates are consistent with positive returns to performance, novelty effects from newer teams, and varying impacts from roster quality and composition. Other factors hypothesized to be important for MLS teams (e.g., stadium quality and market demographics) are not associated with team revenue. The estimates are similar to findings in other major North American sports leagues, even though MLS operates with a unique single-entity ownership structure that has the potential to disincentivize individual team investments by league owners.

Distributed lag models to identify the cumulative effects of training and recovery in athletes using multivariate ordinal wellness data

Subjective wellness data can provide important information on the well-being of athletes and be used to maximize player performance and detect and prevent against injury. Wellness data, which are often ordinal and multivariate, include metrics relating to the physical, mental, and emotional status of the athlete. Training and recovery can have significant short- and long-term effects on athlete wellness, and these effects can vary across individual. We develop a joint multivariate latent factor model for ordinal response data to investigate the effects of training and recovery on athlete wellness. We use a latent factor distributed lag model to capture the cumulative effects of training and recovery through time. Current efforts using subjective wellness data have averaged over these metrics to create a univariate summary of wellness, however this approach can mask important information in the data. Our multivariate model leverages each ordinal variable and can be used to identify the relative importance of each in monitoring athlete wellness. The model is applied to professional referee daily wellness, training, and recovery data collected across two Major League Soccer seasons.

Card collection: An examination of whether yellow and red cards affect base salary under Major League Soccer’s salary cap

We examine the effect of card (yellow and red) collection on player remuneration under the salary cap in Major League Soccer (MLS). The data contain 1478 observations of 731 players under contract between 2015 and 2019. Though the number of yellow cards a player collected had a significant impact, the number of red cards collected was not found to be a significant factor. On average, when a player has accumulated more than eight yellow cards over the course of the regular season, his salary was dropped substantially. If a player receives more than two red cards, his salary was decreased. A key result was that players who were aggressive without crossing the line to the point of being ejected from the field of play received comparatively higher salaries.