Detecting Regime Shifts in the Portuguese Continental Shelf Ecosystem Within the Last Three Decades

Marine ecosystems are affected by diverse pressures and consequently may undergo significant changes that can be interpreted as regime shifts. In this study we used integrated trend analysis (ITA) that combines multivariate statistics and methodologies to identify abrupt changes in time-series, in order to test a hypothesis about the occurrence of regime shifts in the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem (PCSE). We used two types of data describing ecosystem drivers (fishing mortality and environmental/climatic indices) and ecosystem state (observed and modelled biomass and ecosystem indices). Modelled biomass and ecosystem indices were outputs of Ecopath with Ecosim temporal model parametrised for PSCE between 1986 and 2017. The analyses indicated that the regime shifts in the PCSE have occurred during three periods in the last three decades: “early regime” until the mid-1990s, followed by “transition regime” in-between and “late regime” since the mid-2010s. The detected regime shifts are characterised by changes in the pelagic community that became more dominant when compared to the demersal community and shifted from sardine, the main fishing resource, abundant in the “early regime”, to other less valuable pelagic fishes such as chub mackerel that dominated the “late regime”. The “early regime” was characterised by high catch, a larger proportion of demersal species, and higher diversity while, the “late regime” was represented by lower catch, an increase in higher trophic level (TL) predatory fish and lower diversity. Moreover, the “late regime” showed lower resilience and reduced maturity when compared to the “early regime”. Changes described in the ecosystem were probably related to (1) the shift in the north Atlantic environmental conditions that affected small pelagic fish (SPF) and lower TLs groups, (2) reduction in fishing pressure, and (3) internal triggers, related to the indirect trophic interactions that might have benefited higher TL fish and impacted the pelagic community. In the context of PCSE management, this study highlighted a need to consider the possibility of regime shifts in the management process. For example, regime specific harvest rates and environmental reference points should be considered when an indication of abrupt change in the ecosystem exists.

Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers

Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (>10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with “memory” or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (<1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O2 and pH increases with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to 5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers.

Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers

Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socio-economic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modelling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (> 10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with memory or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (

The application of resilience concepts in palaeoecology

The concept of resilience has become increasingly important in ecological and socio-ecological literature. With its focus on the temporal behaviour of ecosystems, palaeoecology has an important role to play in developing a scientific understanding of ecological resilience. We provide a critical review of the ways in which resilience is being addressed by palaeoecologists. We review ~180 papers, identifying the definitions or conceptualisations of ‘resilience’ that they use, and analysing the ways in which palaeoecology is contributing to our understanding of ecological resilience. We identify three key areas for further development. First, the term ‘resilience’ is frequently defined too broadly to be meaningful without further qualification. In particular, palaeoecologists need to distinguish between ‘press’ vs ‘pulse’ disturbances, and ‘ecological’ vs ‘engineering’ resilience. Palaeoecologists are well placed to critically assess the extent to which these dichotomies apply in real (rather than theoretical) ecosystems, where climate and other environmental parameters are constantly changing. Second, defining a formal ‘response model’ – a statement of the anticipated relationships between proxies, disturbances and resilience properties – can help to clarify arguments, especially inferred causal links, since the difficulty of proving causation is a fundamental limitation of palaeoecology for understanding ecosystem drivers and responses. Third, there is a need for critical analysis of the role of scale in ecosystem resilience. Different palaeoenvironmental proxies are differently able to address the various temporal and spatial scales of ecological change, and these limitations, as well as methodological constraints on inherently noisy proxy data, need to be explored and addressed.

Characteristics of Mediterranean-Type Ecosystems

Modern mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) are shaped by key ecosystem drivers that affect their function. The most important of these drivers are climate, topography, soils, and fire. There are important geographical, climatic, and fire histories that are crucial to understanding these systems. Mediterranean-type climate (MTC) is defined as a cool wet winter (winter-wet) and a warm dry summer, which is a unique pattern of seasonality and one that is rare globally. All of the MTC regions have nutrient-poor soils, particularly as related to nitrogen (N), and some also have extensive phosphorus-poor soils. There is considerable variation both within and between regions in their degree of nutrient impoverishment of soils. Through these shared ecosystem drivers, selection has operated within each ecosystem to shape the communities and the organisms within them. This has resulted in the communities and organisms displaying similar structures and processes.

Adfluvial salmonids have engineering but not fertilization impacts in tributaries of a central Utah reservoir

Migratory fishes can affect tributary ecosystem properties given their potential to introduce nutrients (fertilize) and physically modify habitat (engineer) during spawning. Nonetheless, migrant effects are frequently context-dependent, and it is useful to understand their strength relative to other potential ecosystem drivers. We examined whether tributary ecosystem properties varied in response to migrations of two adfluvial salmonids, taking advantage of differences in migration timing and reproductive strategy between species, as well as hydrogeomorphic differences between a pair of tributaries. For analyses, we used a model comparison approach to evaluate migrant effects relative to other possible drivers. We observed that Bonneville cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii utah) engineered benthic chlorophyll a in redds, with reduction (51% ± 16% decrease) generally occurring during migrations. Contrary to expectations, migrant fertilization effects were not pronounced even in the more retentive tributary during migration by species (kokanee, Oncorhynchus nerka) that exhibited high postspawning mortality. Based on multimodel comparisons, isolated migrant effects were not the primary influence on measured ecosystem properties. Our findings underscore the need to consider different biotic and abiotic conditions that can mediate migratory fish effects.