The Tellus Calendar: A Metric and Perennial Proposal for Calendar Reform

Though calendar reform has fallen out of fashion in the early 21st century, the Gregorian Calendar is still a problematic timekeeping system that would benefit from adjustment or outright replacement. A number of reforms have been suggested since its implementation. Some of these, I argue, were too radical or not beneficial enough to warrant widespread adoption. I suggest instead a 12-month perennial calendar based on the French Republican Calendar (FRC), with 10-day weeks and three-week months. This, in my view, would bring enough benefit to warrant change, while also not shifting too many frames of reference at once. It would also be devoid of the social-political complexities which prematurely killed the FRC. In essence, it would be the as close to a metric calendar that could realistically be adopted in the near future. I term it the Tellus Calendar.

THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE IRANIAN CHARSHANBE SURI FESTIVAL IN THE YEZIDI TRADITION

The aim of this article is to clarify the transformation of the Iranian Charshanbe Suri festival in the Yezidi religious system. Charshanbe Suri is celebrated on the eve of the last Wednesday before the Iranian New year - Nōwrūz. It is considered to be the point of transition between the old and new years and is associated with cleansing and purifying. Yezidis celebrate Charshama Sor on the first Wednesday after April 13 (according to the Gregorian Calendar). Unlike Charshanbe Suri, Charshama Sor is not considered a transition between the old and new years. Charshama Sor symbolizes the awakening of nature, the arrival of Spring, the New Year, as well as cosmogony, the creation and renewal of the world, and the “birth” of one of the Yezidi saints, Tausi Malak. There is no doubt that the Yezidi Charshama Sor is a version of the Iranian Charshanbe Suri. This study of Charshama Sor reveals that the Yezidi tradition has preserved Charshanbe Suri and its main symbols but has also endowed it with new, Yezidi interpretations.

Peramalan Data Inflow dan Outflow Uang Kartal Bank Indonesia Provinsi DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Model ARIMAX dan SARIMAX

<p><strong>A</strong><strong>bstract</strong><strong>.</strong> DKI Jakarta Province plays a crucial role as the center of government and economy in Indonesia. The description of currency inflows and outflows is highly required before Bank Indonesia formulates the appropriate policies to control the circulation of money. The monthly data of currency inflow and outflow of Bank Indonesia of DKI Jakarta show a significant increase in each year particularly before, during, and after Eid al-Fitr. The determination of Eid al-Fitr does not follow the Gregorian calendar but based on the Islamic calendar. The difference in the use of the Gregorian and Islamic calendars in a time series causes a calendar variation. Thus, the determination of Eid al-Fitr in the Gregorian calendar changes as it goes forward eleven days each year or one month every three years. This study aims to obtain the best model and forecast currency inflows and outflows of Bank Indonesia DKI Jakarta using the ARIMAX and SARIMAX models. The study used in-sample data from January 2009 to December 2018 and out-sample data from January to October 2019. The best model was selected based on the smallest out-sample MAPE value. The result showed that the best forecasting model of inflow was ARIMAX (1,0,1). Meanwhile, the best forecasting model for outflow was SARIMAX (2,0,1)(0,0,1)¹².</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>ARIMAX, calendar variation, forecasting, SARIMAX</p>

Model Variasi Kalender pada Regresi Runtun Waktu untuk Peramalan Jumlah Pengunjung Grojogan Sewu

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Grojogan Sewu visitors experience a significant increase during school holidays, year-end holidays, and also Eid al-Fitr holidays. The determination of Eid Al-Fitr uses the Hijriyah calendar so that the occurrence of Eid al-Fitr will progress 10 days when viewed from the Gregorian calendar, this causes calendar variations. The objective of this paper is to apply a calendar variation model based on time series regression and SARIMA models for forecasting the number of visitors in Grojogan Sewu. The data are Grojogan Sewu visitors from January 2009 until December 2019. The results show that time series regression with calendar variation yields a better forecast compared to the SARIMA model. It can be seen from the value of root mean square error (<em>RMSE</em>) out-sample of time series regression with calendar variation is less than of SARIMA model.</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>Calendar variation, time series regression, SARIMA, Grojogan Sewu</p>

Novel Optimal Perennial Calendar Systems vs Gregorian Calendar and Their Impact on the Energy Demand and the Environment

Have you ever missed an event because you were confused about days and dates? Do you remember the date of any specific day without looking at the calendar? Is the current Gregorian Calendar efficient enough for usage, and does it facilitate our life or make it more complicated? Have you ever thought about a simpler way to calculate days and dates in a year without using a calendar? All these questions are answered in this paper, in which authors propose two contributions, (a) a new mathematical formula that calculates the number of days in any month in the Gregorian calendar for any year, including the leap years, (b) an original optimization method that creates optimal perennial calendars. Results show that there is more than one way to create a perennial calendar using the proposed optimization model, in which the number of days in each month does not change, neither the dates. Hence, all months have the same sequence of days and dates. In other meaning, Monday becomes the first day of every month, and Sunday becomes the last day. Consequently, the calendars become much easier to memorize, and it becomes simpler to predict the days and dates in any year. In addition, the proposed optimal perennial calendar system reduces the energy demand and pollution worldwide, in which it has less impact on the environment and climate change compared to the Gregorian calendar. This is due to the fact that less printed-out calendars are produced, and less time is spent on the digital calendars to check the dates and days.

Implementation challenges and perception of care providers on Electronic Medical Records at St. Paul’s and Ayder Hospitals, Ethiopia

Background In resources constrained settings, effectively implemented Electronic Medical Record systems have numerous benefits over paper-based record keeping. This system was implemented in the 2009 Gregorian Calendar in the two Ethiopian territory hospitals, Ayder and St. Paul’s. The pilot implementation and similar re-deployment efforts done in 2014 and 2017 Gregorian Calendar failed at St. Paul's. This study aimed to assess the current status, identify challenges, success factors and perception of health care providers to the system to inform on future roll-outs and scale-up plans. Methods A cross sectional study design with quantitative and qualitative methods was employed. A survey was administered October to December 2019 using a structured questionnaire. A total of 240 health care providers participated in the study based on a stratified random sampling technique. An interview was conducted with a total of 10 persons that include IT experts and higher managements of the hospital. Descriptive statistics were employed to summarize the survey data using SPSS V.21. Qualitative data were thematically presented. Results St. Paul’s hospital predominantly practiced the manual medical recording system. The majority of respondents (30.6%) declared that a lack of training and follow up, lack of management commitment, poor network infrastructure and hardware/software-related issues were challenges and contributed to EMR system failure at St. Paul’s. Results from the qualitative data attested to the above results. The system is found well-functioning at Ayder, and the majority of respondents (38%) noted that lack of training and follow-up was the most piercing challenge. As per the qualitative findings, ICT infrastructure, availability of equipment, incentive mechanisms, and management commitment are mentioned as supportive for successful implementation. At both hospitals, 70 to 95% of participants hold favorable perceptions and are willing to use the system. Conclusion Assessing the readiness of the hospital, selecting and acquiring standard and certified EMR systems, provision of adequate logistic requirements including equipment and supplies, and upgrading the hospital ICT infrastructure will allow sustainable deployment of an EMR system.

Do Islamic Holy days affect stock returns? Empirical evidence from Asian and African markets

Purpose The Islamic Holy days are among the most celebrated spiritual traditions in the world and are observed by more than 1.5 billion Muslims. This study aims to investigate the effect of these events on the regular returns of stock exchanges in selected Muslim countries. Design/methodology/approach This study examines data from eight Asian and African stock exchanges from 2001 to 2019. Isolating the effect of Gregorian calendar anomalies, it aims to evaluate the effect of Islamic Holy days on stock returns by running a pooled random effect panel regression on all the stock exchanges examined. Findings The results reveal the positive impact of Eid-ul-Fitr on Asian markets, the negative impact of Eid Milad-un-Nabi on the African stock market’s returns and the positive effect of the Holy month of Ramadan on both markets. Some Gregorian calendar anomalies also were found in these markets. Practical implications The research has significant implications for marketing professionals to recognize business opportunities and investors to efficiently manage their stock portfolio during Islamic events of Eid-ul-Fitr, Eid Milad-un-Nabi and Ramadan in relevant Muslim countries. Originality/value Given the research gap between Gregorian and Islamic calendar anomalies, this paper contributes by combining the effect of Islamic Holy days on the returns of selected Muslim-dominated financial markets.

PERUMUSAN KALENDER SYAMSI HIJRI IRAN DAN AHMADIYAH DALAM TINJAUAN AL-SIYASAH AL-SYAR’IYYAH

Calendar had a function as a regulator of community activities, both civil and religious activities. The Islamic calendar which whom established by Prophet Muhammad by adopting Lunar system also had a civil function. The Islamic calendar also had a major element to prescribe the timing of worships such as the time of fasting and Hajj. The Shamsi Hijri Calendar of Iran and the Ahmadiyya Community were calendars based on solar system which the beginning of the year starts from the Hijrah of Prophet Muhammad. The Iranian calendar dates back to ancient Persian times while the Ahmadiyya calendar is an adoption of the Gregorian calendar labeled by the symbols of Islam. Viewed from the perspective of Siyasah Shar'iyyah, the two calendars designed so each of community gets maslahat according to paradigm of each authorities. The Iranian Hijri Shamsi Calendar designed for the Iranians to keep their identity as Persians as well as to show their Islamic identity and shiáh characteristics. The Ahmadiyya calendar designed as an effort to Islamize the Gregorian calendar aside from an effort to internationalize this Jamaah and also as a symbol of relationship between Mirza Ghulam Ahmad, the founder of Ahmadiyya and Prophet Jesus Christ since Mirza Ghulam Ahmad also pronounced as Messiah as what it seems in Prophet Jesus. In the framework of al-siyasah al-Shar'yyah, the Iranian Hijri Shamsi calendar design is not as problematic as this calendar for religious purposes nor to the Ahmadiyya calendar, as both calendars were nothing more than a civil calendars.

Peramalan Banyak Pengunjung Pantai Pandasimo Bantul Menggunakan Regresi Runtun Waktu dan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous

<p>Forecasting is a ways to predict what will happen in the future based on the data in the past. Data on the number of visitors in Pandansimo beach are time series data. The pattern of the number of visitors in Pandansimo beach is influenced by holidays, so it looks like having a seasonal pattern. The majority of Indonesian citizens are Muslim who celebrate Eid Al-Fitr in every year. The determination of Eid Al-Fitr does not follow the Gregorian calendar, but based on the Lunar calendar. The variation of the calendar is about the determination of Eid Al-Fitr which usually changed in the Gregorian calendar, because in the Gregorian calendar, Eid Al-Fitr day will advance one month in every three years. Data that contain seasonal and calendar variations can be analyzed using time series regression and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (SARIMAX) models. The aims of this study are to obtain a better model between time series regression and SARIMAX and to forecast the number of Pandansimo beach visitors using a better model. The result of this study indicates that the time series regression model is a better model. The forecasting from January to December 2018 in succession are 13255, 6674, 8643, 7639, 13255, 8713, 22635, 13255, 13255, 9590, 8549, 13255 visitors.</p><strong>Keywords: </strong>time series regression, seasonal, calendar variations, SARIMAX, forecasting

Bartholomäus Scultetus (1540–1614)

The fourth chapter centres on the Lutheran mayor Bartholomäus Scultetus (1540–1614) who introduced the Gregorian Calendar to Lusatia and the Bohemian lands. Other Lutheran territories, most notably Saxony, refused to accept the more accurate calendar on religious grounds. Scultetus, however, advocated for the calendar and exchanged letters with Catholic dignitaries, praising the benefits of a calendar reform. He dedicated multiple works to Catholics, was friends with some of them and even included woodcuts of his Catholic friends or their coat of arms in his works. Other examples of this cross-confessional exchange include a monk who was one of the most popular godfathers in Zittau until the 1540s or the peaceful negotiations between Lutheran town councils and Franciscan monks regarding new town schools. Scultetus and other councillors also engaged in the creation of a Reformation memory, but without a clear shape of Lutheranism, these histories did not follow a unified pattern.