scholarly journals Model Variasi Kalender pada Regresi Runtun Waktu untuk Peramalan Jumlah Pengunjung Grojogan Sewu

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Etik Zukhronah ◽  
Winita Sulandari ◽  
Isnandar Slamet ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto ◽  
Irwan Susanto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Gregorian Calendar ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Sarima Models

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Grojogan Sewu visitors experience a significant increase during school holidays, year-end holidays, and also Eid al-Fitr holidays. The determination of Eid Al-Fitr uses the Hijriyah calendar so that the occurrence of Eid al-Fitr will progress 10 days when viewed from the Gregorian calendar, this causes calendar variations. The objective of this paper is to apply a calendar variation model based on time series regression and SARIMA models for forecasting the number of visitors in Grojogan Sewu. The data are Grojogan Sewu visitors from January 2009 until December 2019. The results show that time series regression with calendar variation yields a better forecast compared to the SARIMA model. It can be seen from the value of  root mean square error (<em>RMSE</em>) out-sample of time series regression with calendar variation is less than of SARIMA model.</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>Calendar variation, time series regression, SARIMA, Grojogan Sewu</p>

scholarly journals Rapid determination of tannin in Danshen and Guanxinning injections using UV spectrophotometry for quality control

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (06) ◽  
pp. 1850034
Author(s):  
Hongxia Huang ◽  
Yuanyuan Lv ◽  
Xiaoyi Sun ◽  
Shuangshuang Fu ◽  
Xuefang Lou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Chinese Medicine ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Uv Spectroscopy ◽  
Uv Spectrophotometry ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Tannin Content

A technique for the determination of tannin content in traditional Chinese medicine injections (TCMI) was developed based on ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy. Chemometrics were used to construct a mathematical model of absorption spectrum and tannin reference content of Danshen and Guanxinning injections, and the model was verified and applied. The results showed that the established UV-based spectral partial least squares regression (PLS) tannin content model performed well with a correlation coefficient ([Formula: see text]) of 0.952, root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.476[Formula: see text][Formula: see text]g/ml, root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) of 1.171[Formula: see text][Formula: see text]g/ml, and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.465[Formula: see text][Formula: see text]g/ml. Pattern recognition models using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and [Formula: see text] nearest neighbor ([Formula: see text]-NN) classifiers based on UV spectrum could successfully classify different types of injections and different manufacturers. The established method to measure tannin content based on UV spectroscopy is simple, rapid and reliable and provides technical support for quality control of tannin in Chinese medicine injections.

scholarly journals Forecasting hourly emergency department arrival using time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-43
Author(s):  
Avishek Choudhury ◽  
Estefania Urena
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Mean Error ◽  
Auto Regressive

Background/aims The stochastic arrival of patients at hospital emergency departments complicates their management. More than 50% of a hospital's emergency department tends to operate beyond its normal capacity and eventually fails to deliver high-quality care. To address this concern, much research has been carried out using yearly, monthly and weekly time-series forecasting. This article discusses the use of hourly time-series forecasting to help improve emergency department management by predicting the arrival of future patients. Methods Emergency department admission data from January 2014 to August 2017 was retrieved from a hospital in Iowa. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Holt–Winters, TBATS, and neural network methods were implemented and compared as forecasters of hourly patient arrivals. Results The auto-regressive integrated moving average (3,0,0) (2,1,0) was selected as the best fit model, with minimum Akaike information criterion and Schwartz Bayesian criterion. The model was stationary and qualified under the Box–Ljung correlation test and the Jarque–Bera test for normality. The mean error and root mean square error were selected as performance measures. A mean error of 1.001 and a root mean square error of 1.55 were obtained. Conclusions The auto-regressive integrated moving average can be used to provide hourly forecasts for emergency department arrivals and can be implemented as a decision support system to aid staff when scheduling and adjusting emergency department arrivals.

scholarly journals Flood Detection and Susceptibility Mapping Using Sentinel-1 Time Series, Alternating Decision Trees, and Bag-ADTree Models

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayub Mohammadi ◽  
Khalil Valizadeh Kamran ◽  
Sadra Karimzadeh ◽  
Himan Shahabi ◽  
Nadhir Al-Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Topographic Wetness Index ◽  
Flood Detection ◽  
Flooded Areas

Flooding is one of the most damaging natural hazards globally. During the past three years, floods have claimed hundreds of lives and millions of dollars of damage in Iran. In this study, we detected flood locations and mapped areas susceptible to floods using time series satellite data analysis as well as a new model of bagging ensemble-based alternating decision trees, namely, bag-ADTree. We used Sentinel-1 data for flood detection and time series analysis. We employed twelve conditioning parameters of elevation, normalized difference’s vegetation index, slope, topographic wetness index, aspect, curvature, stream power index, lithology, drainage density, proximities to river, soil type, and rainfall for mapping areas susceptible to floods. ADTree and bag-ADTree models were used for flood susceptibility mapping. We used software of Sentinel application platform, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis, ArcGIS, and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences for preprocessing, processing, and postprocessing of the data. We extracted 199 locations as flooded areas, which were tested using a global positioning system to ensure that flooded areas were detected correctly. Root mean square error, accuracy, and the area under the ROC curve were used to validate the models. Findings showed that root mean square error was 0.31 and 0.3 for ADTree and bag-ADTree techniques, respectively. More findings illustrated that accuracy was obtained as 86.61 for bag-ADTree model, while it was 85.44 for ADTree method. Based on AUC, success and prediction rates were 0.736 and 0.786 for bag-ADTree algorithm, in order, while these proportions were 0.714 and 0.784 for ADTree. This study can be a good source of information for crisis management in the study area.

Determination of Loganin in Qiju Dihuang Pills by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Technique

2013 ◽  
Vol 807-809 ◽  
pp. 1978-1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cai Xia Xie ◽  
Hai Yan Gong ◽  
Jian Ying Liu ◽  
Jing Wei Lei ◽  
Xiao Yan Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Diffuse Reflectance ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Mean Square

To establish a rapid analytical method for Loganin in Qiju Dihuang Pills (condensed) by Near-infrared Diffuse Reflectance Technique. Collecting NIR spectra by NIR Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy, the partial least square calibration model was built. The correlation coefficients (R2) and the root-mean-square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) were 0.99764 and 0.09340, respectively. In the external validation,coefficients of determination (r2) between NIRS and HPLC values was 0.97348,the root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) was 0.08491. The results showed that the method was rapid, accurate, and could be applied to the fast determination of Loganin in Qiju Dihuang Pills (condensed).

Application of Chemometrics for Spectral Resolving and Determination of Three Analgesics in Water Samples

2020 ◽  
Vol 103 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali M Yehia ◽  
Heba T Elbalkiny ◽  
Safa’a M Riad ◽  
Yasser S Elsaharty
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Water Samples ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Multivariate Curve Resolution ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative

Abstract Background: Chemometrics is a discipline that allows the spectral resolution of drugs in a complicated matrix (e.g., environmental water samples) as an alternative to chromatographic methods. Objective: Three analgesics were traced in wastewater samples with simple and cost-effective multivariate approaches using spectrophotometric data. Methods and Results: Four chemometric approaches were applied for the simultaneous determination of diclofenac, paracetamol, and ibuprofen. Partial least squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR), artificial neural networks (ANN), and multivariate curve resolution (MCR)–alternating least squares (ALS) were selected. The presented methods were compared and validated for their qualitative and quantitative analyses. Moreover, statistical comparison between the results obtained by the proposed methods and the official methods showed no significant differences. Conclusions: The proposed multivariate calibrations were accurate and specific for quantitative analysis of the studied components. MCR-ALS is the only method that has the capacity for both the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the studied drugs. Highlights: Four chemometric approaches were used for analysis of severally overlapped ternary mixture of three analgesics. The analytical performance of PCR, PLS, MCR-ALS, and ANN was compared and validated in terms of root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC), SE of prediction, and recoveries. ANN gave the highest predicted concentrations with the lowest RMSEC and root mean square error of prediction. MCR-ALS has the capacity for both qualitative and quantitative measurement. The methods have been effectively applied for real samples and compared to official methods.

scholarly journals Study on Apparent Kinetic Prediction Model of the Smelting Reduction Based on the Time-Series

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-feng Fan ◽  
Shan Qing ◽  
Hua Wang ◽  
Zhe Shi ◽  
Wei-Chiang Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Golden Section ◽  
Ar Model ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Smelting Reduction ◽  
Data Mining Technique ◽  
Promising Alternative

A series of direct smelting reduction experiment has been carried out with high phosphorous iron ore of the different bases by thermogravimetric analyzer. The derivative thermogravimetric (DTG) data have been obtained from the experiments. One-step forward local weighted linear (LWL) method , one of the most suitable ways of predicting chaotic time-series methods which focus on the errors, is used to predict DTG. In the meanwhile, empirical mode decomposition-autoregressive (EMD-AR), a data mining technique in signal processing, is also used to predict DTG. The results show that (1) EMD-AR(4) is the most appropriate and its error is smaller than the former; (2) root mean square error (RMSE) has decreased about two-thirds; (3) standardized root mean square error (NMSE) has decreased in an order of magnitude. Finally in this paper, EMD-AR method has been improved by golden section weighting; its error would be smaller than before. Therefore, the improved EMD-AR model is a promising alternative for apparent reaction rate (DTG). The analytical results have been an important reference in the field of industrial control.

scholarly journals Peramalan Data Ekspor Nonmigas Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Metode Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Lee

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Muhammad Wahdeni Pramana ◽  
Ika Purnamasari ◽  
Surya Prangga
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error

Ekspor merupakan aktivitas perdagangan atau penjualan barang dari dalam negeri ke luar negeri. Ekspor nonmigas sebagai salah satu komponen pembentuk Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) sehingga perlu adanya suatu peramalan nilai di masa mendatang. Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) merupakan metode peramalan dengan berdasarkan teori himpunan fuzzy, logika fuzzy, serta hasil peramalan yang dapat dibahasakan (linguistik). Metode Weighted Fuzzy Time Series (WFTS) Lee merupakan perluasan dari metode FTS dengan penambahan pembobotan pada tiap pola relasi yang terbentuk. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh nilai peramalan ekspor nonmigas Provinsi Kalimantan Timur pada bulan November 2020 serta memperoleh nilai akurasi peramalan berdasarkan metode Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Berdasarkan hasil analisis diperoleh nilai akurasi peramalan untuk data Ekspor Nonmigas Provinsi Kalimantan Timur bulan Januari 2019 – Oktober 2020 dengan konstanta pembobot   menggunakan metode MAPE diperoleh hasil keseluruhan dibawah 10% sehingga diperoleh konstanta pembobot terbaik yaitu  dengan nilai MAPE terminimum yaitu sebesar 3,62% dan RMSE minimum sebesar 50,67. Dari hasil tersebut, diperoleh hasil peramalan untuk bulan November 2020 dengan menggunakan kontanta pembobot terbaik  yaitu sebesar 850,96 juta USD.

Estimation of precision of determination of the Yarkovsky effect parameter based on real and model asteroid observations

2021 ◽  
pp. 170-174
Author(s):  
T.Yu. Galushina ◽  
◽  
O.N. Letner ◽  
O.M. Syusina ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Observation Interval ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Yarkovsky Effect ◽  
Effect Parameter ◽  
Large Observation

The paper presents the results of assessment definition precision of the Yarkovsky effect parameter A 2 for asteroids with small perihelion distances, known on epoch January 2021. It is shown that the observation interval has a significant effect on the precision of A 2. As the interval increases, the root mean square error of the parameter decreases. For asteroids (3200) Phaethon and (137924) 2000 BD19 with a large observation interval, an experiment was carried out to reduce the number of real observations. A decrease of the interval and number of observations leads to a loss in the precision of the parameter being determined. Modeling observations based on real ones with an increase in their precision showed that the root mean square error of the A 2 parameter decreases in proportion to the increase in the observation precision. The increase of interval due to model observations confirmed the conclusion about the inverse dependence of the A 2 uncertainty from number and interval of observations.

A Study on Time Series Forecasting using Hybridization of Time Series Models and Neural Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 827-832
Author(s):  
Iflah Aijaz ◽  
Parul Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square

Introduction: Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are leading linear and non-linear models in Machine learning respectively for time series forecasting. Objective: This survey paper presents a review of recent advances in the area of Machine Learning techniques and artificial intelligence used for forecasting different events. Methods: This paper presents an extensive survey of work done in the field of Machine Learning where hybrid models for are compared to the basic models for forecasting on the basis of error parameters like Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). Results: Table 1 summarizes important papers discussed in this paper on the basis of some parameters which explain the efficiency of hybrid models or when the model is used in isolation. Conclusion: The hybrid model has realized accurate results as compared when the models were used in isolation yet some research papers argue that hybrids cannot always outperform individual models.

scholarly journals FTIR Spectrometry with PLS Regression for Rapid TBN Determination of Worn Mineral Engine Oils

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6438
Author(s):  
Marie Sejkorová ◽  
Branislav Šarkan ◽  
Petr Veselík ◽  
Ivana Hurtová
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Oil Quality ◽  
Engine Oil ◽  
Base Number ◽  
Pls Regression ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Ftir Spectrometry

The TBN (Total Base Number) parameter is generally recognized by both engine oil processors and engine manufacturers as a key factor of oil quality. This is especially true for lubricating oils used in diesel and gas engines, which are exposed to relatively high temperatures and, therefore, require more effective protection against degradation. The FTIR spectrometry method together with a multivariate statistical software helped to create a model for the determination of TBN of worn motor oil SAE 15W-40 ACEA: E5/E7, API: CI-4. The best results were provided using a model FTIR with Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression in an overall range of 4000–650 cm−1 without the use of mathematical adjustments of the scanned spectra by derivation. Individual spectral information was condensed into nine principal components with linear combinations of the original absorbances at given wavenumbers that are mutually not correlated. A correlation coefficient (R) between values of TBN predicted by the FTIR-PLS model and values determined using a potentiometric titration in line with the ČSN ISO 3771 standard reached a value of 0.93. The Root Mean Square Error of Calibration (RMSEC) was determined to be 0.171 mg KOH.g−1, and the Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP) was determined to be 0.140 mg KOH.g−1. The main advantage of the proposed FTIR-PLS model can be seen in a rapid determination and elimination of the necessity to work with dangerous chemicals. FTIR-PLS is used mainly in areas of oil analysis where the speed of analysis is often more important than high accuracy.

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