SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution in the United States: High accumulation of viral mutations over time likely through serial Founder Events and mutational bursts

Since the first case of COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, SARS-CoV-2 has spread worldwide and within a year and a half has caused 3.56 million deaths globally. With dramatically increasing infection numbers, and the arrival of new variants with increased infectivity, tracking the evolution of its genome is crucial for effectively controlling the pandemic and informing vaccine platform development. Our study explores evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in a representative cohort of sequences covering the entire genome in the United States, through all of 2020 and early 2021. Strikingly, we detected many accumulating Single Nucleotide Variations (SNVs) encoding amino acid changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, with a pattern indicative of RNA editing enzymes as major mutators of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. We report three major variants through October of 2020. These revealed 14 key mutations that were found in various combinations among 14 distinct predominant signatures. These signatures likely represent evolutionary lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and reveal clues to its evolution such as a mutational burst in the summer of 2020 likely leading to a homegrown new variant, and a trend towards higher mutational load among viral isolates, but with occasional mutation loss. The last quartile of 2020 revealed a concerning accumulation of mostly novel low frequency replacement mutations in the Spike protein, and a hypermutable glutamine residue near the putative furin cleavage site. Finally, end of the year data and 2021 revealed the gradual increase to prevalence of known variants of concern, particularly B.1.1.7, that have acquired additional Spike mutations. Overall, our results suggest that predominant viral genomes are dynamically evolving over time, with periods of mutational bursts and unabated mutation accumulation. This high level of existing variation, even at low frequencies and especially in the Spike-encoding region may become problematic when super-spreader events, akin to serial Founder Events in evolution, drive these rare mutations to prominence.

Long-term spatio-temporal genetic structure of an accidental parasitoid introduction, and local changes in prevalence of its associated Wolbachia symbiont

Population bottlenecks associated with founder events strongly impact the establishment and genetic makeup of populations. In addition to their genotype, founding individuals also bring along symbionts that can manipulate the phenotype of their host, affecting the host population establishment, dynamics and evolution. Thus, to understand introduction, invasion, and spread, we should identify the roles played by accompanying symbionts. In 1991, the parasitoid wasp, Hyposoter horticola, and its associated hyperparasitoid were accidentally introduced from the main Åland islands, Finland, to an isolated island in the archipelago, along with their host, the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Though the receiving island was unoccupied, the butterfly was present on some of the small islands in the vicinity. The three species have persisted as small populations ever since. A strain of the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia has an intermediate prevalence in the H. horticola across the main Åland population. The infection increases susceptibility of the parasitoid to hyperparasitism. We investigated the establishment and spread of the parasitoid, along with patterns of prevalence of its symbiont using 323 specimens collected between 1992 and 2013, from five localities across Åland, including the source and introduced populations. Using 14 microsatellites and one mitochondrial marker, we suggest that the relatively diverse founding population and occasional migration between islands might have facilitated the persistence of all isolated populations, despite multiple local population crashes. We also show local near-fixation of Wolbachia, where the hyperparasitoid is absent, and selection against infected wasp genotypes is relaxed.

SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution in the United States: High accumulation of viral mutations over time likely through serial Founder Events and mutational bursts

ABSTRACTSince the first case of COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, SARS-CoV-2 has spread worldwide and within a year has caused 2.29 million deaths globally. With dramatically increasing infection numbers, and the arrival of new variants with increased infectivity, tracking the evolution of its genome is crucial for effectively controlling the pandemic and informing vaccine platform development. Our study explores evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in a representative cohort of sequences covering the entire genome in the United States, through all of 2020 and early 2021. Strikingly, we detected many accumulating Single Nucleotide Variations (SNVs) encoding amino acid changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, with a pattern indicative of RNA editing enzymes as major mutators of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. We report three major variants through October of 2020. These revealed 14 key mutations that were found in various combinations among 14 distinct predominant signatures. These signatures likely represent evolutionary lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and reveal clues to its evolution such as a mutational burst in the summer of 2020 likely leading to a homegrown new variant, and a trend towards higher mutational load among viral isolates, but with occasional mutation loss. The last quartile of 2020 revealed a concerning accumulation of mostly novel low frequency replacement mutations in the Spike protein, and a hypermutable glutamine residue near the putative furin cleavage site. Finally, the end of the year data revealed the presence of known variants of concern including B.1.1.7, which has acquired additional Spike mutations. Overall, our results suggest that predominant viral sequences are dynamically evolving over time, with periods of mutational bursts and unabated mutation accumulation. This high level of existing variation, even at low frequencies and especially in the Spike-encoding region may be become problematic when superspreader events, akin to serial Founder Events in evolution, drive these rare mutations to prominence.AUTHOR SUMMARYThe pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused the death of more than 2.29 million people and continues to be a severe threat internationally. Although simple measures such as social distancing, periodic lockdowns and hygiene protocols were immediately put into force, the infection rates were only temporarily minimized. When infection rates exploded again new variants of the virus began to emerge. Our study focuses on a representative set of sequences from the United States throughout 2020 and early 2021. We show that the driving force behind the variants of public health concern, is widespread infection and superspreader events. In particular, we show accumulation of mutations over time with little loss from genetic drift, including in the Spike region, which could be problematic for vaccines and therapies. This lurking accumulated genetic variation may be a superspreader event from becoming more common and lead to variants that can escape the immune protection provided by the existing vaccines.

Reconstructing the history of founder events using genome-wide patterns of allele sharing across individuals

Founder events play a critical role in shaping genetic diversity, impacting the fitness of a species and disease risk in humans. Yet our understanding of the prevalence and distribution of founder events in humans and other species remains incomplete, as most existing methods for characterizing founder events require large sample sizes or phased genomes. To learn about the frequency and evolutionary history of founder events, we introduce ASCEND (Allele Sharing Correlation for the Estimation of Non-equilibrium Demography), a flexible two-locus method to infer the age and strength of founder events. This method uses the correlation in allele sharing across the genome between pairs of individuals to recover signatures of past bottlenecks. By performing coalescent simulations, we show that ASCEND can reliably estimate the parameters of founder events under a range of demographic scenarios, with genotype or sequence data. We apply ASCEND to ~5,000 worldwide human samples (~3,500 present-day and ~1,500 ancient individuals), and ~1,000 domesticated dog samples. In both species, we find pervasive evidence of founder events in the recent past. In humans, over half of the populations surveyed in our study had evidence for a founder events in the past 10,000 years, associated with geographic isolation, modes of sustenance, and historical invasions and epidemics. We document that island populations have historically maintained lower population sizes than continental groups, ancient hunter-gatherers had stronger founder events than Neolithic Farmers or Steppe Pastoralists, and periods of epidemics such as smallpox were accompanied by major population crashes. Many present-day groups--including Central & South Americans, Oceanians and South Asians--have experienced founder events stronger than estimated in Ashkenazi Jews who have high rates of recessive diseases due to their history of founder events. In dogs, we uncovered extreme founder events in most groups, more than ten times stronger than the median strength of founder events in humans. These founder events occurred during the last 25 generations and are likely related to the establishment of dog breeds during Victorian times. Our results highlight a widespread history of founder events in humans and dogs, and provide insights about the demographic and cultural processes underlying these events.

Comparative genetic diversity of Cryptosporidium species causing human infections

Parasites sometimes expand their host range and cause new disease aetiologies. Genetic changes can then occur due to host-specific adaptive alterations, particularly when parasites cross between evolutionarily distant hosts. Characterizing genetic variation in Cryptosporidium from humans and other animals may have important implications for understanding disease dynamics and transmission. We analyse sequences from four loci (gp60, HSP-70, COWP and actin) representing multiple Cryptosporidium species reported in humans. We predicted low genetic diversity in species that present unusual human infections due to founder events and bottlenecks. High genetic diversity was observed in isolates from humans of Cryptosporidium meleagridis, Cryptosporidium cuniculus, Cryptosporidium hominis and Cryptosporidium parvum. A deviation of expected values of neutrality using Tajima's D was observed in C. cuniculus and C. meleagridis. The high genetic diversity in C. meleagridis and C. cuniculus did not match our expectations but deviations from neutrality indicate a recent decrease in genetic variability through a population bottleneck after an expansion event. Cryptosporidium hominis was also found with a significant Tajima's D positive value likely caused by recent population expansion of unusual genotypes in humans. These insights indicate that changes in genetic diversity can help us to understand host-parasite adaptation and evolution.

Runs of homozygosity in killer whale genomes provide a global record of demographic histories

SUMMARYRuns of homozygosity (ROH) occur when offspring receive the same ancestral haplotype from both parents, and, accordingly, reduce individual heterozygosity. Their distribution throughout the genome contains information on the probability of inbreeding mediated by mating system and population demography. Here, we investigate variation in killer whale demographic history as reflected in genome-wide heterozygosity, using a global dataset of 26 genomes. We find an overall pattern of lower heterozygosity in genomes sampled at high latitudes, with hundreds of short ROH (< 1Mbp) reflecting high background relatedness due to coalescence of haplotypes during bottlenecks associated with founder events during post-glacial range expansions. Across most of the species’ range, intermediate length ROH (1-10Mb) revealed long-term inbreeding in 22 of the 26 sampled killer whale genomes, consistent with the high social philopatry observed in all populations studied to date. Inbreeding coefficients (FROH) were comparable to those reported in other taxa with long-term low population size, such as bonobos and the Native American Karitiana of the Brazilian Amazon. The extreme outlier in this dataset, a Scottish killer whale, was homozygous over one-third of the autosomes (41.6%) with a distinct distribution of ROH length, indicating generations of inbreeding. This exceeds autozygosity in emblematic examples of long-term inbreeding, such as the Altai Neanderthal, and eastern lowland and mountain gorillas. The fate of this Scottish killer whale population, in which no calves have been born in over two decades, may be inextricably linked to its demographic history and consequential inbreeding depression.