The Potential of Switchgrass and Miscanthus to Enhance Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration—Predicted by DayCent Model

Warm season perennial C4 grasses (WSGs), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and miscanthus species (Miscanthus spp.), have been reported to positively influence short-term (15–20 years) soil organic carbon (SOC). In this study, the DayCent model was used to predict changes in long-term SOC stocks under WSGs for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) warming climate change scenarios in southern Ontario, Canada, and to determine how long the enhanced SOC stock will last when WSGs are converted back to annual crop rotation. The model predicted that a consistent corn–corn–soybean–winter wheat (CCSW) rotation prevented SOC from depletion over the 21st century. Under WSGs, the model predicted high rates of SOC sequestration during the first 20–30 years which then tended to stabilize after 50–60 years. However, the rate of SOC sequestration over 90 years for RCP 4.5 was 0.26 and 0.94 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. If 40-year stands of WSGs are converted back to CCSW, the model predicted SOC decline to the previous level in 40–50 years. DayCent predicted that under RCP 8.5 scenario in the second half of the 21st century and in the future, there will be a reduction in SOC stocks, especially under miscanthus stands.

The importance of management information and soil moisture representation for simulating tillage effects on N₂O emissions in LPJmL5.0-tillage

No-tillage is often suggested as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Modeling tillage effects on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions is challenging and subject to great uncertainties as the processes producing the emissions are complex and strongly nonlinear. Previous findings have shown deviations between the LPJmL5.0-tillage model (LPJmL: Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) and results from meta-analysis on global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions. Here we tested LPJmL5.0-tillage at four different experimental sites across Europe and the USA to verify whether deviations in N2O emissions under different tillage regimes result from a lack of detailed information on agricultural management, the representation of soil water dynamics or both. Model results were compared to observational data and outputs from field-scale DayCent model simulations. DayCent has been successfully applied for the simulation of N2O emissions and provides a richer database for comparison than noncontinuous measurements at experimental sites. We found that adding information on agricultural management improved the simulation of tillage effects on N2O emissions in LPJmL. We also found that LPJmL overestimated N2O emissions and the effects of no-tillage on N2O emissions, whereas DayCent tended to underestimate the emissions of no-tillage treatments. LPJmL showed a general bias to overestimate soil moisture content. Modifications of hydraulic properties in LPJmL in order to match properties assumed in DayCent, as well as of the parameters related to residue cover, improved the overall simulation of soil water and N2O emissions simulated under tillage and no-tillage separately. However, the effects of no-tillage (shifting from tillage to no-tillage) did not improve. Advancing the current state of information on agricultural management and improvements in soil moisture highlights the potential to improve LPJmL5.0-tillage and global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions.

Modelling biophysically-defined, measurable soil organic matter with MEMS 2.0 model

<p>Soil biogeochemical models have used conceptual soil organic matter (SOM) pools for decades. Recently, the MEMS 1.0 model has been developed which represents measurable biophysical SOM fractions and processes, embodying new understanding of the processes that govern SOM dynamics. We continue to develop the model and present here version 2.0. MEMS 2.0 is a full ecosystem model with modules simulating plant growth, soil water and temperature by layer, decomposition of litter and SOM, mineralization and immobilization of nitrogen. Unlike the older biogeochemical models (e.g. DayCent model) which simulate SOM only in the topsoil, MEMS 2.0 models the dynamics of SOM in every soil layer. We will present results from the calibration and testing of MEMS 2.0 using measurements from several grassland sites in the U.S, and discuss how modeling SOM as a particulate (POM) and mineral-associated (MAOM) pool better represents the formation, persistence, and functioning of SOM.</p>

Evaluation of the Impacts of Regional Climate Factors and Crop Management on Corn Yields in Different Climate Regimes of China Using the DayCent Model

Corn is one of most important agricultural products in China. Understanding impacts of regional climate change, as well as agricultural management practices, on corn yields is critical for maintaining stable corn production. Using the DayCent model and observed climatic data in Sichuan province (a humid and hot environment) and Hebei province (a cold and dry environment) in China, corn yields in 1948-2010 were simulated. The spatial variations of simulated corn yields and the relationship between regional climate variability and warming with corn yields in these two environments were analyzed. The results demonstrated that: (1) corn yields in Zhangjiakou of Hebei and most regions of Sichuan decreased significantly after 2000 compared to other regions; (2) relative humidity and precipitation exhibit a significant negative correlation with observed crop yields in the growing season in Hebei province; (3) air temperature from 23.33 °C to 29 °C constitutes the ideal range influencing the increase of corn yields in Sichuan; (4) the planting of the large amount of silage maize in Sichuan compensated the negative impact of the rising air temperature on corn yields; (5) sensitivity tests for different fertilization levels and OMAD suggest that an increasing fertilization level significantly affects corn yields in Hebei province, a cold and dry environment, while a decreasing fertilization level has a significant negative effect in Sichuan province, a hot and humid environment. The overarching goal of these analyses is to provide the theoretical basic for maintaining stable corn production under regional climate warming and different agricultural management practices.