An Adaptive Hybrid Model for Determining Subjective Causal Relationships in Fuzzy System Dynamics Models for Analyzing Construction Risks

Modeling risk management systems in construction projects is a complex process because of various internal and external factors and their interrelationships. Fuzzy system dynamics (FSD) have been commonly employed to model and analyze construction risk management systems. To run FSD simulation models, all hard (objective) and soft (subjective) causal relationships between variables must be quantified. However, a research gap exists regarding structured methods for constructing soft causal relationships in FSD models. This paper proposes an adaptive hybrid model consisting of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, weighted principle of justifiable granularity, and fuzzy aggregation operators to determine crisp values of causality degree for soft (subjective) causal relationships in FSD modeling of construction risk analysis. The proposed model is implemented in analyzing construction risks of a windfarm project to illustrate its applicability. The proposed model generates two results: (1) optimized membership functions for linguistic terms representing the causality degree of soft relationships and (2) the crisp value for the causality degree of soft relationships. The contribution of study is to propose a structured model to improve efficiency and effectiveness of developing FSD quantitative modeling by addressing soft causal relationships between different variables in FSD models and considering multiple risk expertise of heterogeneous experts in construction risk assessment.

Construction Risks Assessment in Latin American Megaprojects: A Fuzzy Challenge

A probabilistic approach is sometimes suggested to assess construction risks in megaprojects. This approach deals with the estimation of the likelihood and impact of risk factors, based on historical numeric data, and understands risks as estimated variances. The application of Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) minimizes the inherent imprecision, inconsistency, vagueness and uncertainty that linguistic information imposes, and thus give the greatest possible objectivity to an inherently subjective analysis. The objective of this document was to use FST to assess the construction risks of three megaprojects in Latin America and illustrate the relative importance of ill-defined risk factors in megaprojects of the region. The three cases studied were: Ferroanel Norte of So Paulo, Brazil; Central Railway of Uruguay; and Metro Line 1 of Bogotá, Colombia. The exercise here presented has allowed to list the most relevant construction risk factors for each case, and show the relative importance of ill-defined variables. Furthermore, it has helped to calculate the contribution of the following risk dimensions: social, technical, environmental, economic and political. On this basis, the document concludes on the usefulness of this approach for megaproject construction risk assessments.

Future of Construction Industry: COVID-19 and Its Implications on Construction Projects and Risk Management – A Review

The global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has created a whole new set of risks in construction industries generating unprecedented delays, disruptions, and uncertainty on construction projects, and has forced the industries in adopting more sophisticated technologies while combating the reduced workforce on job sites. Further, the post-pandemic era of construction is expected to be a lot different as the industries will embrace the technology as the augmentation and collaboration strategy. Thus, it will be extremely hard to sustain for construction industries in the absence of effective risk management. The existing risk plans need to be inspected for their capability of handling new risks arising from COVID-19 and the project managers will need to make the necessary revisions as needed. This paper discusses on past (NORM), present (NEW NORM), and future (Post COVID-19 NORM) of the construction industry and highlights key strategies for managing projects and construction risks during and post COVID-19 pandemic.

SPECIFICITY OF INSURANCE SERVICES OF CONSTRUCTION AND MOUNTING INDUSTRY

The article investigates the features of installation and construction risks insurance. It is found that relations in the field of insurance in Ukraine are regulated by the Law of Ukraine "On Insurance", but this regulatory act does not contain special provisions for construction insurance. It is emphasized that insurance in the field of construction includes a set of risks related to several branches of insurance. Objects of installation and construction risks insurance by relevant branches of insurance are identified. The types of insurance programmes in construction developed by world practice are systematized. Analysis of information from the websites of insurance companies operating in the insurance market of Ukraine and providing insurance services for construction risk insurance has led to the conclusion that currently in Ukraine, technical risk insurance is mostly carried out as property interest insurance during construction or installation work, or as the third-party liability insurance. In addition, the websites of most insurance companies provide only a list of objects and risks that are subject to installation and construction risks insurance. In some cases, this list is not specified and is represented by generalized wording (for example, IC ASKA). The analysis also has shown that indicative information on the level of insurance rates can be obtained only on the websites of 5 insurance companies out of 10 considered. Accordingly, conclusions are made about the state of development of risks insurance in the construction industry on the basis of the results obtained. In Ukraine in terms of installation and construction risks insurance, insurance companies provide insurance coverage of individual risks, not all risks (CAR), which may occur on the construction site, in contrast to world practice. Most companies provide construction risks insurance according to the rules of fire insurance. In addition, insurers' risks increase due to the low level of responsibility of developers to investors. Neither the legislation nor the terms of the contracts prevailing on the market require a higher level of responsibility. The construction industry in our country is developing dynamically, so there is a need for the improvement of construction and installation risk insurance. Nowadays, installation and construction risks insurance in our country is available only to large professional insurers who have reinsurance contracts with foreign reinsurers.