Construction Risks Assessment in Latin American Megaprojects: A Fuzzy Challenge

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Alberti
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Subjective Analysis ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Construction Risks ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Numeric Data ◽  
Risk Dimensions

A probabilistic approach is sometimes suggested to assess construction risks in megaprojects. This approach deals with the estimation of the likelihood and impact of risk factors, based on historical numeric data, and understands risks as estimated variances. The application of Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) minimizes the inherent imprecision, inconsistency, vagueness and uncertainty that linguistic information imposes, and thus give the greatest possible objectivity to an inherently subjective analysis. The objective of this document was to use FST to assess the construction risks of three megaprojects in Latin America and illustrate the relative importance of ill-defined risk factors in megaprojects of the region. The three cases studied were: Ferroanel Norte of So Paulo, Brazil; Central Railway of Uruguay; and Metro Line 1 of Bogotá, Colombia. The exercise here presented has allowed to list the most relevant construction risk factors for each case, and show the relative importance of ill-defined variables. Furthermore, it has helped to calculate the contribution of the following risk dimensions: social, technical, environmental, economic and political. On this basis, the document concludes on the usefulness of this approach for megaproject construction risk assessments.

Major construction risk factors considered by general contractors in Qatar

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz M. Jarkas ◽  
Theodore C. Haupt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The State ◽  
Risk Allocation ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
General Contractors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify, explore, rank the relative importance and determine the prevalent allocation response trends of the major construction risk factors considered by general contractors operating in the State of Qatar. Design/methodology/approach – A structured questionnaire survey comprising 37 potential risk factors was distributed to a statistically representative sample of contractors. The influence ranks of the factors explored were determined using the “Relative Importance Index (RII)” technique, whereas the prevalent trend of contractors’ attitudes toward risk allocation of each factor investigated was quantified and expressed as a percentage, based on the number of respondents who selected a specific option, in relation to the total number of respondents. Findings – The results obtained indicate that risks related to the “client” group are perceived as most critical, followed by the “consultant”, “contractor” and “exogenous” group-related factors, respectively. The outcomes further show that the “transfer” option is the contractors’ prevalent response to “client” and “consultant”-related risks, while the “retention” decision is the principal pattern linked to “contractor” and “exogenous” group-related risk factors. Research limitations/implications – The dominant respondents’ perception that the crucial construction risks are related to clients and consultants suggests that these two parties have an essential role in controlling the negative ramifications of the associated factors. Practical implications – The findings suggest that increasing designers’ awareness of the significant effect of applying the constructability concept can considerably help reducing the risks concomitant of the construction operation. Policy makers may contribute, moreover, in alleviating the risk of incompetent technical staff and operatives’ employment by controlling the migration of inexperienced and unskilled construction workforce into the State. Originality/value – Given the knowledge gap for the major construction risk factors considered by general contractors in Qatar, the results reported in this study can provide clients, industry practitioners and policy makers with guidance to effectively manage the significant risks determined, which can further assist in achieving a reasonable level of competitiveness and cost-effective operation.

scholarly journals Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among Latin American adolescents: a multilevel analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 206-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
A C F de Moraes ◽  
C Musso ◽  
M N Graffigna ◽  
J Soutelo ◽  
M Migliano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Factors ◽  
Multilevel Analysis ◽  
Latin American

scholarly journals Predictors of renal damage in systemic lupus erythematous patients: data from a multiethnic, multinational Latin American lupus cohort (GLADEL)

RMD Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e001299
Author(s):  
Cristina Reátegui-Sokolova ◽  
Manuel F Ugarte-Gil ◽  
Guillermina B Harvey ◽  
Daniel Wojdyla ◽  
Guillermo J Pons-Estel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Renal Damage ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Damage Index ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Male Gender ◽  
Systemic Lupus

AimA decrease in proteinuria has been considered protective from renal damage in lupus nephritis (LN), but a cut-off point has yet to be established. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of renal damage in patients with LN and to determine the best cut-off point for a decrease in proteinuria.MethodsWe included patients with LN defined clinically or histologically. Possible predictors of renal damage at the time of LN diagnosis were examined: proteinuria, low complement, anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies, red cell casts, creatinine level, hypertension, renal activity (assessed by the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI)), prednisone dose, immunosuppressive drugs and antimalarial use. Sociodemographic variables were included at baseline. Proteinuria was assessed at baseline and at 12 months, to determine if early response (proteinuria <0.8 g/day within 12 months since LN diagnosis) is protective of renal damage occurrence. Renal damage was defined as an increase of one or more points in the renal domain of The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Damage Index (SDI). Cox regression models using a backward selection method were performed.ResultsFive hundred and two patients with systemic lupus erythematosus patients were included; 120 patients (23.9%) accrued renal damage during their follow-up. Early response to treatment (HR=0.58), antimalarial use (HR=0.54) and a high SES (HR=0.25) were protective of renal damage occurrence, whereas male gender (HR=1.83), hypertension (HR=1.86) and the renal component of the SLEDAI (HR=2.02) were risk factors for its occurrence.ConclusionsEarly response, antimalarial use and high SES were protective of renal damage, while male gender, hypertension and higher renal activity were risk factors for its occurrence in patients with LN.

Ground Adaptability Characterization for Digging in Complex Geotechnical Conditions and Risk Mitigation

2011 ◽  
Vol 415-417 ◽  
pp. 1431-1434
Author(s):  
Wei Wei Yu ◽  
Xuan Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Soil Pressure ◽  
Ground Movements ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
And Control ◽  
Methods Of Control

Characterization of geotechnical digging and control the dynamical settlement is very necessary to mitigate construction risk. The metro tunnels of being constructed access to each other or near to the ground is high risk and physically difficult and costly. The control method becomes imperative. Some cases of digging prediction of ground movements and assessment of risk of damage to above or adjacent constructions have become an important issue especially in urban projec. Ground adaptability characterization is the key of control the tunneling in complex geotechnical conditions both in rock and soft stratum. High and changed water-soil pressure also is risk factors to effect tunneling process. Beside discussion of risk mitigation associate to tunnel construction, the developing settlement control and simulations are given to describe the methods of control risk.

Management of Fiscal and Financial Risks Generated by PPPs: Conceptual Issues and Country Experiences

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgardo C. Demaestri ◽  
Cynthia Moskovits ◽  
Jimena Chiara
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Institutional Capacity ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Successful Development ◽  
Contingent Liabilities ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Risks Assessment

This paper discusses the main issues concerning sovereign fiscal and financial risks from public–private partnerships (PPPs) with a focus on contingent liabilities (CLs). It is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the XI Annual Meeting of the Group of Latin American and the Caribbean Debt Management Specialists (LAC Debt Group), held in Barbados in August 2015. The main issues discussed include PPP risks assessment, institutional framework for PPP risk management, and accounting and reporting of CLs generated by PPPs. Six country cases (Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Suriname, and Turkey) are presented to illustrate experiences with different degrees of development regarding the management of risks and CLs related to PPPs. The document concludes that PPP risk management should encompass the whole lifecycle of a PPP project, risks need to be identified and CLs must be estimated and monitored, and the institutional capacity of governments to evaluate and manage PPP risks plays a central role in the successful development of PPP contracts. Although institutional capacities in this regard have improved in recent years, estimations of CLs involved in PPPs are not regularly performed, and there is still room for improvement on the assessment, measurement, registration, budgeting, and reporting of risks and CLs related to PPPs.

Abstract TP222: Frequency of Intracranial Arterial Imaging and its Yield in Consecutive Patients with Non-lacunar Cryptogenic Ischemic Stroke: ESUS Global Registry

Stroke ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanjana S Perera ◽  
Balakumar Swaminathan ◽  
Jackie Bosch ◽  
Robert G Hart ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Vascular Risk Factors ◽  
Vascular Risk ◽  
Stroke Population ◽  
Atherosclerotic Stenosis ◽  
Index Stroke ◽  
Global Registry ◽  
Arterial Imaging

Background: Atherosclerotic stenosis of large IC arteries is an important cause of stroke. The prevalence of ICS in stroke population differs by ethnicity.We report the frequency of ICS among a global sample of patients with non-lacunar cryptogenic ischemic stroke (NLCIS) who did not have another identifiable cause for stroke i.e. cardioembolic, extracranial LAD, or other specific causes. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that the prevalence rates of ICS will differ according to global regions. Methods: Consecutive patients with recent ischemic stroke were retrospectively surveyed at 19 stroke centers in 19 countries to identify the frequency of IC imaging and its yield. Countries were grouped by World Bank regions. ICS was considered to be significant if there was >50% stenosis in the arteries proximal to the index stroke evidenced by MRA, CTA or TCD. Results: We identified a total of 2145 consecutive ischemic stroke patients among which 475 had NLCIS. IC arterial imaging was carried-out,on average, in 87% of patients. Of these 414 patients, 15% had stenosis proximal to the area of brain ischemia. The frequency of ICS among NLCIS patients was highest in East Asia (27%) and lowest in Pacific (4%). Patients with ICS in Latin America were significantly younger when compared to other 4 regions. Conclusion: IC arterial imaging is carried out in majority of stroke centers in patients with NLCIS, among whom the fraction of IS associated with ICS is substantial throughout the world, averaging about 15%. MRA / CTA had a higher yield than TCD. On average these patients have traditional vascular risk factors except for Latin American patients who are significantly younger with no vascular risk factors.

The relative importance of falls risk factors: an evidence-based summary

2010 ◽  
pp. 161-172
Author(s):  
Stephen R. Lord ◽  
Catherine Sherrington ◽  
Hylton B. Menz ◽  
Jacqueline C. T. Close
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Falls Risk

scholarly journals An overview of the epidemiology of periodontal diseases in Latin America

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (spe) ◽  
pp. 8-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Vicente Oppermann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Oral Hygiene ◽  
Periodontal Diseases ◽  
Aggressive Periodontitis ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Socioeconomic Background ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Modifiable Factors

The aim of the present review was to identify the presence of periodontal diseases and the relative importance of known risk factors in Latin American countries. The retrieved data are sparse and inconsistent, lacking information for the majority of the countries. Gingivitis is ubiquitous in the region, affecting all ages independently of the socioeconomic background. The extension of bleeding may vary greatly, ranging from 40% to 70% of sites. The prevalence of aggressive periodontitis is higher in Latin America than in industrialized countries. Prevalence ranges from 0.3% to 4.5%, and the localized form is the less prevalent. The prevalence of chronic periodontitis is high, with a large variation (40-80%) probably due to differences in methodology and diagnostic criteria. Regional differences may be relevant. Known risk factors are present in the populations studied. Non-modifiable factors such as age, gender and genetics have been associated in Brazilian and Chilean populations. Tobacco smoking and diabetes are relevant risk factors. The importance of socioeconomic status, although present as a risk factor, has been largely underestimated. Oral hygiene is extremely deficient in the area although it is a cultural habit in most populations. It can be concluded that periodontal diseases are highly prevalent in Latin American populations. Its prevalence and extent are associated with known risk factors. Oral hygiene habits are deficient. Well designed epidemiological studies with external validity are needed.

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