scholarly journals An Adaptive Hybrid Model for Determining Subjective Causal Relationships in Fuzzy System Dynamics Models for Analyzing Construction Risks

CivilEng ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 747-764
Author(s):  
Seyed Hamed Fateminia ◽  
Phuong Hoang Dat Nguyen ◽  
Aminah Robinson Fayek
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Fuzzy System ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy Aggregation ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Construction Risks

Modeling risk management systems in construction projects is a complex process because of various internal and external factors and their interrelationships. Fuzzy system dynamics (FSD) have been commonly employed to model and analyze construction risk management systems. To run FSD simulation models, all hard (objective) and soft (subjective) causal relationships between variables must be quantified. However, a research gap exists regarding structured methods for constructing soft causal relationships in FSD models. This paper proposes an adaptive hybrid model consisting of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, weighted principle of justifiable granularity, and fuzzy aggregation operators to determine crisp values of causality degree for soft (subjective) causal relationships in FSD modeling of construction risk analysis. The proposed model is implemented in analyzing construction risks of a windfarm project to illustrate its applicability. The proposed model generates two results: (1) optimized membership functions for linguistic terms representing the causality degree of soft relationships and (2) the crisp value for the causality degree of soft relationships. The contribution of study is to propose a structured model to improve efficiency and effectiveness of developing FSD quantitative modeling by addressing soft causal relationships between different variables in FSD models and considering multiple risk expertise of heterogeneous experts in construction risk assessment.

Investigating the causal relationships among failure modes, effects and causes: a system dynamics approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Shaker ◽  
Arash Shahin ◽  
Saeed Jahanyan
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Quality Function Deployment ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
System Availability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Potential Failure

PurposeThis paper aims to develop a system dynamics (SD) model to identify causal relationships among the elements of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), i.e. failure modes, effects and causes.Design/methodology/approachA causal loop diagram (CLD) has been developed based on the results obtained from interdependencies and correlations analysis among the FMEA elements through applying the integrated approach of FMEA-quality function deployment (QFD) developed by Shaker et al. (2019). The proposed model was examined in a steel manufacturing company to identify and model the causes and effects relationships among failure modes, effects and causes of a roller-transmission system.FindingsFindings indicated interactions among the most significant failure modes, effects and causes. Moreover, corrective actions defined to eliminate or relieve critical failure causes. Consequently, production costs decreased, and the production rate increased due to eliminated/decreased failure modes.Practical implicationsThe application of CLD illustrates causal relationships among FMEA elements in a more effective way and results in a more precise recognition of the root causes of the potential failure modes and their easy elimination/decrease. Therefore, applying the proposed approach leads to a better analysis of the interactions among FMEA elements, decreased system's failure rate and increased system availability.Originality/valueThe literature review indicated a few studies on the application of SD methodology in the maintenance area, and no study was performed on the causal interactions among FMEA elements through an FMEA-QFD based SD approach. Although the interactions of these elements are significant and helpful in risks ranking, researchers fail to investigate them sufficiently.

Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modelling for construction risk management

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 1197-1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farnad Nasirzadeh ◽  
Abbas Afshar ◽  
Mostafa Khanzadi ◽  
Susan Howick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Construction Risk

scholarly journals Integrated risk management model implementation's contextual dependence on company size

Tehnika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-366
Author(s):  
Nuri Alherian ◽  
Vesna Spasojević-Brkić ◽  
Martina Perišić ◽  
Abdulghder Alsharif
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Iso 14001 ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Safety Management Systems ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Management

Novel integrated risk management model for standardized management systems, such as ISO 9001:2015 for quality management systems, ISO 14001:2015 for environmental management systems, ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for information security management systems, ISO 45001:2018 for occupational health and safety management systems, and ISO 22000:2018 for food safety management systems, has been proposed in order to enable that organizations can manage their processes and associated risks versus requirements of each internal and external stakeholder, due to the fact that those models rarely exist in literature. Proposed model consists of three levels - correspondence, coordination and integration and put in place a clear and structured approach to controlling organizational risks. Using sample of 30 Serbian companies the proposed model has been checked empirically to contextual independence of proposed model using Mann-Whitney U*test and it has been proved that model is context free and applicable to companies different in size since there were no differences between micro & small vs. medium & large companies. Limitation of this research for sure is the sample size, so its extension is recommended. Further recommendation for future research is also a more detailed analysis on collected data done by using more sophisticated statistical analysis tools, such as regression analysis, structural equations modeling and similar to see interrelations between variables in the proposed model.

RISIKO KONSTRUKSI PADA PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK KONVENSIONAL, SEBAGAI MASUKAN UNTUK KONSTRUKSI PLTN PERTAMA DI INDONESIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dharu Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Construction Risks ◽  
Conventional Power Plant

In general, Construction Risks of the Conventional Power Plants are almost the same with the Construction Risks at the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Construction Risks Experience in the Conventional Power Plant can be used as a lesson learned for Construction of the Nuclear Power Plant. This study method covers the survey, the relevant publication and empiric assessment on the real project risk implementation. The input data have been provided from experiences in conventional power plant. Hence, project risks must be control to make sure that construction activities in accordance to agreed shedule and free from cost overruns. This study can be expected will provide a valuable input to project risks of Construction of the NPP. It is concluded that the risk management can be carried out by risk identification, and implement the selected technique or strategyfor reduction of risk, transfer of risk and retention of risk to anticipate the all risks which is take place at the construction. Risk management system must be carried out by well in order to risk can be minimized.

scholarly journals SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL IN ANALYZING PENSION EXPENDITURE: THE CASE OF MALAYSIAN EMPLOYEES PUBLIC PENSION PLAN

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (05) ◽  
pp. 1450046 ◽  
Author(s):  
HASIMAH SAPIRI ◽  
ANTON ABDULBASAH KAMIL ◽  
RAZMAN MAT TAHAR
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Risk Monitoring ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
The Impact

Malaysian employees' public pension plan was studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary risk and demographic risk. By integrating risk management and System Dynamics (SD) approach, the risk factors involved were identified, a causal loop diagram was constructed, and the SD model was developed. By using a sample of actual data, the proposed model was then validated through behavior validity test and a risk analysis was conducted. Then, risk monitoring was performed through policy evaluation in which the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure was analyzed. Risk management and dynamics simulation approach in analyzing pension expenditure were shown to be useful in evaluating the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk.

scholarly journals Novel risk management integrated model implementation: Comparison between manufacturing and service companies

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Nuri Alheriani ◽  
Vesna Spasojević-Brkić ◽  
Martina Perišić
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Iso 14001 ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Service Companies ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Iec 27001 ◽  
Integrated Risk Management

Till now a framework to define a common and unified standard model for integrated risk management systems, which is suitable to be used in all contingency factors settings, has not been found. For this reason, as the main objective of applying the standards of management systems in the organizations is to determine the risk that affects the ability of the organization to achieve its goals and desired results in addition to organizing and coordinating all operations and the optimal use of resources, the purpose is to develop an integrated risk management model for standardized management systems with growing trends such as ISO 9001:2015, ISO 14001:2015, ISO/IEC 27001:2013, ISO 45001:2018 and ISO 22000:2018 with the aim to allow organizations to manage their operations and risks appearing in a manner that reduces the use of available resources and improves the overall performance. Novel risk management integrated model in standardized management systems has three levels - correspondence, coordination and integration and putting in place a clear and structured approach to control of organizational risk. Proposed model has been checked empirically to survey contextual independence of proposed model using Mann-Whitney U*test and it has been proved that the model is context free and applicable to companies from different sectors - both in production and service companies.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF PREDICTING THE INDICATORS OF ACCREDITATION OF TECHNICAL UNIVERSITIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2017 ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Olga Mikhaylovna Tikhonova ◽  
Alexander Fedorovich Rezchikov ◽  
Vladimir Andreevich Ivashchenko ◽  
Vadim Alekseevich Kushnikov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oriented Graph ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Linear Differential ◽  
The University ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The paper presents the system of predicting the indicators of accreditation of technical universities based on J. Forrester mechanism of system dynamics. According to analysis of cause-and-effect relationships between selected variables of the system (indicators of accreditation of the university) there was built the oriented graph. The complex of mathematical models developed to control the quality of training engineers in Russian higher educational institutions is based on this graph. The article presents an algorithm for constructing a model using one of the simulated variables as an example. The model is a system of non-linear differential equations, the modelling characteristics of the educational process being determined according to the solution of this system. The proposed algorithm for calculating these indicators is based on the system dynamics model and the regression model. The mathematical model is constructed on the basis of the model of system dynamics, which is further tested for compliance with real data using the regression model. The regression model is built on the available statistical data accumulated during the period of the university's work. The proposed approach is aimed at solving complex problems of managing the educational process in universities. The structure of the proposed model repeats the structure of cause-effect relationships in the system, and also provides the person responsible for managing quality control with the ability to quickly and adequately assess the performance of the system.

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