Mathematically optimal decisions in forensic age assessment

Forensic age estimation generally involves considerable amounts of uncertainty. Forensic age indicators such as teeth or skeleton images predict age only approximately, and this is likely to remain true even for future forensic age indicators. Thus, forensic age assessment should aim to make the best possible decisions under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply mathematical theory to make statistically optimal decisions to age assessment. Such an application is fairly straightforward assuming there is a standardized procedure for obtaining age indicator information from individuals, assuming we have data from the application of this procedure to a group of persons with known ages, and assuming the starting point for each individual is a probability distribution describing prior knowledge about the persons age. The main problem is then to obtain such a prior. Our analysis indicates that individual priors rather than a common prior for all persons may be necessary. We suggest that caseworkers, based on individual case information, may select a prior from a menu of priors. We show how information may then be collected over time to gradually increase the robustness of the decision procedure. We also show how replacing individual prior distributions for age with individual prior odds for being above an age limit cannot be recommended as a general method. Our theoretical framework is applied to data where the maturity of the distal femur and the third molar is observed using MRI. As part of this analysis we observe a weak positive conditional correlation between maturity of the two body parts.

Comparison of abnormalities in the sequence of growth stages in the skeletal maturity index vs cervical vertebral maturation: A retrospective study

ABSTRACT Objectives To evaluate the frequency of abnormal progression that could ultimately affect the reliability of the skeletal maturity index (SMI) and the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method that are most commonly used analyses for skeletal age assessment. Materials and Methods A retrospective design was used to compare 299 hand-wrist radiographs with 299 lateral skull radiographs regarding the number of abnormalities in the proposed sequence of maturation in the SMI and CVM methods. Results A significantly greater number of abnormalities occurred in the sequence of CVM progression compared with SMI (P < .001). Sex and age did not have an effect. Conclusions Skeletal age assessment based on SMI is more accurate than CVM regarding the progressive sequence of stages.

Palynological and calcareous nannofossil investigation of the Gosau Group deposits from three boreholes in the Vienna Basin, Austria

Palynological and calcareous nannofossil investigations on samples from the basal part of the Gosau Group succession in three boreholes (Glinzendorf T1, Gänserndorf T3 and Markgraf Neusiedl T1) in the Vienna Basin provide calibrated age assessment of late Coniacian to early Campanian age for this thick non-marine to marginal-marine siliciclastic interval.

Groundwater age in the Wairarapa

<p>This dissertation focuses on the catchment-scale evaluation of groundwater age as a function of space and time in the 270 km² Middle Wairarapa catchment. The simulation of the mean age and point distribution of ages, contributing to a regional age estimate, is a novel demonstration of the recently developed groundwater software, Cornaton (2012). The Wairarapa is in the southern North Island of New Zealand and is a dynamic water catchment exhibiting complex interactions between its rivers and shallow aquifers. Groundwater has been widely utilized since the 1980s for agriculture, horticulture and drinking water; increasing land use development (i.e. irrigation and nutrient application) requires effective regional management of both the quantity and quality of water resources. Groundwater age provides insights into groundwater flow and transport processes and thus enables better management of groundwater resources. Subsurface water age information enables the interpretation of recharge influence, zones of sensitivity for sustainable abstraction, as well as contamination risk from land-use intensification to drinking water supplies. It is accepted that groundwater is composed of a mixture of water with different ages, however, until very recently mean age has been the primary indicator for groundwater age assessment. Mean age alone can misrepresent the potential for contamination from young water; for example, a groundwater sample with an old mean age may still contain a significant fraction of young water; therefore, a fuller understanding of the age distribution in both time and space is important for groundwater management. The ability to simulate the full distribution of groundwater age within transient numerical groundwater models has only been very recently enabled, through implementation of the time-marching Laplace transform Galerkin technique (TMLTGT), and is demonstrated in this dissertation. A transient finite-element groundwater flow model originally developed by Greater Wellington Regional Council was converted to simulate transport of the age tracer tritium and groundwater age using the Ground Water (GW) software. Observed tritium concentrations were utilized in the calibration using the Monte Carlo and Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg methods. Following the calibration of the transport model the GW software was then used to derive pumping well capture zones and directly simulate age throughout the Middle Wairarapa Valley catchment. The advective dispersive equation and the TMLTGT were used for transient mean-age and transient simulations of the full distribution of groundwater age. The results are presented as maps and graphs of both mean age and age distributions throughout the Middle Valley, covering a 15 year simulation period. The mean-age simulations indicated the groundwater age in the valley was strongly influenced by seasonal changes and extreme climatic events. Significant variations existed, from high rainfall recharge percolating young water throughout the domain, to dry extended droughts limiting recharge and increasing the age throughout large sections of the Middle Valley. Age distributions were shown to be strongly influenced by abstraction pressures, depth and geology. Abstractions were shown to skew the age distribution, creating both older and younger mean-ages depending on the location of the observation point, and several simulations indicated the potential misrepresentation of young (potentially contaminated) water quantified as old by mean-age assessment. These results show the dynamic nature of the Middle Valley groundwater system and its inherent vulnerabilities. The Wairarapa transient age distributions are one of the first such examples in New Zealand, and they demonstrate the potential of the information interpreted from age estimates to more effectively manage groundwater resources.</p>

Groundwater age in the Wairarapa

<p>This dissertation focuses on the catchment-scale evaluation of groundwater age as a function of space and time in the 270 km² Middle Wairarapa catchment. The simulation of the mean age and point distribution of ages, contributing to a regional age estimate, is a novel demonstration of the recently developed groundwater software, Cornaton (2012). The Wairarapa is in the southern North Island of New Zealand and is a dynamic water catchment exhibiting complex interactions between its rivers and shallow aquifers. Groundwater has been widely utilized since the 1980s for agriculture, horticulture and drinking water; increasing land use development (i.e. irrigation and nutrient application) requires effective regional management of both the quantity and quality of water resources. Groundwater age provides insights into groundwater flow and transport processes and thus enables better management of groundwater resources. Subsurface water age information enables the interpretation of recharge influence, zones of sensitivity for sustainable abstraction, as well as contamination risk from land-use intensification to drinking water supplies. It is accepted that groundwater is composed of a mixture of water with different ages, however, until very recently mean age has been the primary indicator for groundwater age assessment. Mean age alone can misrepresent the potential for contamination from young water; for example, a groundwater sample with an old mean age may still contain a significant fraction of young water; therefore, a fuller understanding of the age distribution in both time and space is important for groundwater management. The ability to simulate the full distribution of groundwater age within transient numerical groundwater models has only been very recently enabled, through implementation of the time-marching Laplace transform Galerkin technique (TMLTGT), and is demonstrated in this dissertation. A transient finite-element groundwater flow model originally developed by Greater Wellington Regional Council was converted to simulate transport of the age tracer tritium and groundwater age using the Ground Water (GW) software. Observed tritium concentrations were utilized in the calibration using the Monte Carlo and Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg methods. Following the calibration of the transport model the GW software was then used to derive pumping well capture zones and directly simulate age throughout the Middle Wairarapa Valley catchment. The advective dispersive equation and the TMLTGT were used for transient mean-age and transient simulations of the full distribution of groundwater age. The results are presented as maps and graphs of both mean age and age distributions throughout the Middle Valley, covering a 15 year simulation period. The mean-age simulations indicated the groundwater age in the valley was strongly influenced by seasonal changes and extreme climatic events. Significant variations existed, from high rainfall recharge percolating young water throughout the domain, to dry extended droughts limiting recharge and increasing the age throughout large sections of the Middle Valley. Age distributions were shown to be strongly influenced by abstraction pressures, depth and geology. Abstractions were shown to skew the age distribution, creating both older and younger mean-ages depending on the location of the observation point, and several simulations indicated the potential misrepresentation of young (potentially contaminated) water quantified as old by mean-age assessment. These results show the dynamic nature of the Middle Valley groundwater system and its inherent vulnerabilities. The Wairarapa transient age distributions are one of the first such examples in New Zealand, and they demonstrate the potential of the information interpreted from age estimates to more effectively manage groundwater resources.</p>