Macroeconomics Meets regional science: How national economic activity is Related to regional economic activity

2021 ◽  
pp. 016001762110341
Author(s):  
Michael Beenstock
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Regional Science ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Regional Productivity ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
National Economic

Macroeconomics and regional science have developed as separate disciplines. However, the fact that the gross domestic product is the sum of gross regional products suggests that the two disciplines are related. The present study considers the implications of regional science and economic geography for macroeconomics. Specifically, a spatial econometric model for Israel is simulated to explore the implications of regional productivity and amenity shocks for gross regional products and the gross domestic product. We show that the effects of productivity shocks on the gross domestic product depend on where they occur and may even be negative. These results question estimates of the effect of productivity shocks in macroeconomic models in terms of spatial aggregation bias. They also provide empirical evidence rejecting the spatial granularity hypothesis regarding the secular relation between macroeconomic economic activity and regional economic activity. The study concludes with speculations about the implications of macroeconomics for regional science.

scholarly journals The impact of direct and indirect taxes on economic growth: An empirical analysis related to Romania

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona - Mihaela Bâzgan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Positive Change ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this paper involved studying the impact of direct taxes and indirect taxes on the economic growth using an econometric Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) based on the statistical data related to Romania over the period of time 2009 (2nd quarter)-2017 (2nd quarter). Fiscal policy system involved a significant impact on the evolution of economic growth in the recent years in Romania, namely the years taken into consideration for this study. The econometric model used three endogenous variables, namely the level of direct taxes as percent of the Gross Domestic Product (%GDP), the level of indirect taxes as percent of the Gross Domestic Product (%GDP) and the economic growth rate over the analysed period of time. According to the econometric model presented in this paper, it was proved that a positive change in the structure of indirect taxes will have a strong positive influence on the economic growth over a medium-term period. On the other hand, economic growth will be negatively influenced in the next period of time after implementing a positive change in the structure of direct taxes, then returning to a positive influence over a medium term period and maintaining that influence in the future time periods.

scholarly journals Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Abdullah Ghazo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) are significant indicators to describe and evaluate economic activity and levels of development. They are also often used by decision makers so as to plan economic policy. This paper aims at modeling and predicting GDP and CPI in Jordan. In order to achieve this goal, the study applied the Box- Jenkins (JB) methodology for the period 1976-2019. Based on the results, ARIMA (3,1,1) found to be the best model for the GDP. In addition, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model for forecasting the CPI. The results were supported with the findings of the stationarity and identification rules test of time series under using AIC and SIC criterion. The forecasted values of the GDP and the CPI for the next three years (2020-2022) were (29342.12, 32095.10, 35106.36 million JD) and (128.31, 133.28, 139.28) respectively. Compared with 2019, the GDP is forecasted to decrease in 2020, while the CPI is forecasted to increase in 2020. This implies that the Jordanian economy is tending toward stagflation. After 2020, both GDP and CPI increased, which indicates that Jordanian economy is tending toward cost-push inflation.

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity: The Asymmetric Cointegration Approach in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ntokozo Nzimande ◽  
Simiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

This study examines the link between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gross domestic product in the context of South Africa. The study employs the asymmetric approach proposed by Schorderet (2004) and advanced by Lardic and Mignon (2008). Asymmetric cointegration is used because it is believed that increasing and decreasing oil prices do not have similar or equal impacts on economic activity. In this study we document evidence for an asymmetric response of economic activity to oil price shocks. Further, our findings suggest that negative oil price shocks are important relative to positive oil price shocks.

The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War: a Comment

1973 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-463
Author(s):  
F. S. O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Recent Issue ◽  
Nigerian Civil War ◽  
Product Series

In a recent issue of this Journal, x, 2, July 1972, pp. 223–45, Dr E. Wayne Nafziger assessed ‘The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War’. The article is, in general, an excellent summary and analysis of the available statistical information on the Nigerian economy for the war period, June 1967 to January 1970, as well as the years leading up to and immediately following the hostilities. However, the author has made an error in his interpretation of the Nigerian gross domestic product series which has led him to seriously understate the decline in aggregate economic activity associated with the war.

scholarly journals Цифровая синергетика взаимодействия внутригодовой активности экономической деятельности и годовой динамики валового внутреннего продукта

2020 ◽  
pp. 118-131
Author(s):  
Michail Novikov
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Cyclic Component ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Activity Energy

According to the results of the decomposition of the observed levels of quarterly GDP indicators statistically relevant components of its dynamics are identified: the dynamic component of seasonal cyclic nature, the trend-cyclic component, and that of short-term fluctuations. A methodology is suggested for studying the impact of within-year economic activity energy on the dynamics of annual GDP indicators. The research analytics was tested on the actual materials of annual and quarterly indicators of the Gross Domestic Product of the Republic of Belarus over the period of 2009–2017.

scholarly journals Islamic Responses to the Financial and Economic Crises

ICR Journal ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-257
Author(s):  
Abdul Karim Abdullah (Leslie Terebessy)
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
National Income ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
International Level ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Increase In Productivity

An economic crisis is the flip side of a financial crisis. A financial crisis, whether on a personal, national or international level, takes place when economic activity - the source of income - slows down or stops. Economic activity generates income. When production slows down income paid for the use of the factors of production also falls. As the gross domestic product declines so does national income. When there is a recession or a depression the economy needs to be revived - fast. An increase in efficiency or productivity contributes to higher profits, higher incomes, and a higher standard of living. Low productivity keeps income at low levels. When income increases without a proportionate increase in productivity, however, it is as if a car engine were running at a higher speed - but in the neutral gear. More income is being generated, but there is little corresponding increase in real wealth. Islam, in turn, appears to offer effective responses to a variety of crises - including financial and economic ones.

scholarly journals Determinants of Profitability: Evidence from Brokerage Companies Listed at Amman Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Ahmad Dahiyat
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Amman Stock Exchange ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
Simple Regression

<p><em>This paper examines the factors determining the profitability of the brokerage companies (Brokers) listed at Amman Stock Exchange during the period from 2013 to 2017. The profitability of brokerage companies is measured by Return on Assets (ROA) as a function of broker specific and macroeconomic determinants. Simple regression was also used to analyze the data, examine the relations, and measure the effect of determinants on brokerage companies’ profitability. The findings revealed that assets quality and Capital adequacy have a positive and significant impact on broker profitability. Furthermore, the results of the study show that broker size has a negative (inverse) impact on broker profitability, while the analysis of macroeconomic variables records that economic activity measured by inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has no effect on brokers’ profitability.</em></p>

scholarly journals Pengaruh Perubahan Tutupan Hutan Dan Lahan Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (Pdrb) Di Sektor Pertanian, Kehutanan Dan Industri : Studi Di Provinsi Lampung

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Ummi Dienelly ◽  
Samsul Bakri ◽  
Trio Santoso
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Forestry Sector ◽  
National Economic

National economic growth is an aggregate of regional economic growth. Economic growth inboth national and local level is closely related to the performance of the productions of goodsand services, which measured by massive increase in the amount of the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) for the region. Lampung province’seconomic growth performance is high enough but on the other hand had to be paid by landconversion. This study aims to determine the dynamic of changes in land cover and forest and itsimpact on agriculture, forestry and industrial earnings. Data collected consist of satelitte  imageof lampung province  RGDP in agricultural sector, RGDP in foresty sector, RGDP in industrialsector and population density data. The result showed that there was a significant relationshipbeetwen changes in private forest cover by 11.055 (p= 0.062), rice field by 7.982 (p= 0.082), andpopulation density by -8.676 (p= 0.000) to the RGDP in agricultural sector. RGDP in theforestry sector is affected significantly by the national forest cover by 1.160 (p= 0.00)and other land use by -0.803 (p= 0.061). RGDP in the industrial sector is influenced significantly byprivate forest -7.434 (p= 0.077), and plantation by 5.471 (p= 0.00).Keyword : RGDB agriculture sector, RGDB forestry sector, RGDB industri sector

scholarly journals Analysis of the dynamics of gross domestic product and external economic activity of the Russian Federation for 2013−2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (26) ◽  
pp. 146-157
Author(s):  
Oleg Ilyasovich Katlishin ◽  
Alexander Sergeevich Baleevskikh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation

Currently, the Russian Federation is a significant geopolitical and economic player in the modern global world, it has its own interests and traditional partnerships with most states, including business representatives of those countries that are trying to restrain its development through restrictions and partial isolation from global development opportunities . Despite the sanctions and the unfavorable world market conditions, the Russian economy showed high plasticity, stability and adaptability to external changes, which was reflected in the positive dynamics of foreign trade growth in the existing conditions. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of official statistics on economic growth and foreign trade in the Russian Federation for the period 2013-2018. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved: 1) an analysis of the dynamics of the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation for the period 2013-2018; 2) the role of foreign trade in the gross domestic product of the country is estimated through the calculation of foreign economic quotas; 3) analyzed the dynamics of foreign trade, imports and exports of the Russian Federation; 4) revealed the shares of product groups in the structure of exports and imports, as well as the most significant counterparties of the Russian Federation. The hypothesis of the study was the thesis of the interdependence of the volume of economic growth and foreign economic activity, including taking into account changes in foreign economic conditions. The article provides a retrospective analysis of the dynamics of economic growth in terms of nominal value and purchasing power parity, as well as the dynamics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation for the period 2013-2018. A preliminary forecast of foreign trade volumes for 2019 is given. The calculation of foreign economic, export and import quotas for the same period. The Russian specifics of the dynamics and structure of export supplies and import flows, as well as the structure of both imports and exports by counteragent countries and enlarged groups of the commodity nomenclature of foreign economic activity, are examined. For the period under review, the nominal GDP fell by 28.8%, while in terms of purchasing power parity, the Russian economy grew by 5.7% over the same period. At the same time, the largest drawdown in the economy occurred in the middle of the period; in recent years, the situation in the economy has improved. The role of foreign trade in the formation of GDP during the period was relatively stable, with the exception of 2018, when the foreign trade quota sharply increased (as well as export and import). The dynamics of foreign trade and export quotas in the Russian Federation are almost identical, while imports depend on export earnings. For the study period, foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation decreased by 18.4%, export volumes decreased by 14.8%, import purchases decreased by 24.5%. The main problem of the economy and foreign economic activity remains its dependence on the export of mineral products.

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