The 852/3 CE Mount Churchill eruption: examining the potential climatic and societal impacts and the timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the North Atlantic Region

The 852/3 CE eruption of Mount Churchill, Alaska, was one of the largest first millennium volcanic events, with a magnitude of 6.7 (VEI 6) and a tephra volume of 39.4–61.9 km3 (95 % confidence). The spatial extent of the ash fallout from this event is considerable and the cryptotephra (White River Ash east; WRAe) extends as far as Finland and Poland. Proximal ecosystem and societal disturbances have been linked with this eruption; however, wider eruption impacts on climate and society are unknown. Greenland ice-core records show that the eruption occurred in winter 852/3 ± 1 CE and that the eruption is associated with a relatively moderate sulfate aerosol loading, but large abundances of volcanic ash and chlorine. Here we assess the potential broader impact of this eruption using palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, historical records and climate model simulations. We also use the fortuitous timing of the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption and its extensively widespread tephra deposition of the White River Ash (east) (WRAe) to examine the climatic expression of the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly period (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) from precisely linked peatlands in the North Atlantic region. The reconstructed climate forcing potential of 852/3 CE Churchill eruption is moderate compared with the eruption magnitude, but tree-ring-inferred temperatures report a significant atmospheric cooling of 0.8 °C in summer 853 CE. Modelled climate scenarios also show a cooling in 853 CE, although the average magnitude of cooling is smaller (0.3 °C). The simulated spatial patterns of cooling are generally similar to those generated using the tree-ring-inferred temperature reconstructions. Tree-ring inferred cooling begins prior to the date of the eruption suggesting that natural internal climate variability may have increased the climate system’s susceptibility to further cooling. The magnitude of the reconstructed cooling could also suggest that the climate forcing potential of this eruption may be underestimated, thereby highlighting the need for greater insight into, and consideration of, the role of halogens and volcanic ash when estimating eruption climate forcing potential. Precise comparisons of palaeoenvironmental records from peatlands across North America and Europe, facilitated by the presence of the WRAe isochron, reveal no consistent MCA signal. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that characterizes the MCA hydroclimate as time-transgressive and heterogeneous, rather than a well-defined climatic period. The presence of the WRAe isochron also demonstrates that no long-term (multidecadal) climatic or societal impacts from the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption were identified beyond areas proximal to the eruption. Historical evidence in Europe for subsistence crises demonstrate a degree of temporal correspondence on interannual timescales, but similar events were reported outside of the eruption period and were common in the 9th century. The 852/3 CE Churchill eruption exemplifies the difficulties of identifying and confirming volcanic impacts for a single eruption, even when it is precisely dated.

Elemental Enrichment in Shallow Subsurface Red Sea Coastal Sediments, Al-Shuaiba, Saudi Arabia: Natural vs. Anthropogenic Controls

Geochemical analysis of the 23 sediment samples collected from a short (0.6 m long) core retrieved from the coastal creek that was previously connecting the northern and southern Al-Shuaiba Lagoons, Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, was accomplished to assess the elemental enrichment levels and the natural and anthropogenic driving forces for this enrichment. Statistical analysis and upcore variation in elemental concentrations enabled subdivision of the core formally into three units, lower, middle, and upper. The enriched elements in the lower and middle units display poor to negative correlations with the enriched elements in the upper unit. The lower unit is enriched in elements (Mo, As, U, and Re) suggesting deposition under anoxic conditions, possibly related to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The middle unit is enriched in the carbonate-related constituents (CaCO3, Ca, and Sr). The upper unit is enriched in elements that co-vary significantly with Al suggesting increased terrigenous supply associated with the construction of the road between the two lagoons. The enrichment of elements in the lower and middle units is naturally driven, whereas the enrichment of lithogenic elements in the upper unit, though of geogenic origin, is induced after the road construction.

Modern and sub-fossil corals suggest reduced temperature variability in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the medieval climate anomaly

We present two 40 year records of monthly coral Sr/Ca ratios from the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole. A modern coral covers the period from 1968 to 2007. A sub-fossil coral derives from the medieval climate anomaly (MCA) and spans 1100–1140 ad. The modern coral records SST variability in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole. A strong correlation is also found between coral Sr/Ca and the IOD index. The correlation with ENSO is asymmetric: the coral shows a moderate correlation with El Niño and a weak correlation with La Niña. The modern coral shows large interannual variability. Extreme IOD events cause cooling > 3 °C (1994, 1997) or ~ 2 °C (2006). In total, the modern coral indicates 32 warm/cool events, with 16 cool and 16 warm events. The MCA coral shows 24 warm/cool events, with 14 cool and 10 warm events. Only one cool event could be comparable to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2006. The seasonal cycle of the MCA coral is reduced (< 50% of to the modern) and the skewness of the Sr/Ca data is lower. This suggests a deeper thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean associated with a La Niña-like mean state in the Indo-Pacific during the MCA.

The case of a southern European glacier which survived Roman and medieval warm periods but is disappearing under recent warming

Mountain glaciers have generally experienced an accelerated retreat over the last 3 decades as a rapid response to current global warming. However, the response to previous warm periods in the Holocene is not well-described for glaciers of the southern Europe mountain ranges, such as the Pyrenees. The situation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1300 CE) is particularly relevant since it is not certain whether the southern European glaciers just experienced significant ice loss or whether they actually disappeared. We present here the first chronological study of a glacier located in the Central Pyrenees (NE Spain), Monte Perdido Glacier (MPG), carried out by different radiochronological techniques and a comparison with geochemical proxies from neighbouring palaeoclimate records. The chronological model evidences that the glacier persisted during the Roman period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The apparent absence of ice in the past ∼ 600 years suggests that any ice accumulated during the Little Ice Age has since ablated. This interpretation is supported by measured concentrations of anthropogenic metals, including Zn, Se, Cd, Hg and Pb, which have concentrations well below those typical of industrial-age ice measured at other glaciers in Europe. This study strengthens the general understanding that warming of the past few decades has been exceptional for the past 2 millennia.

A prequel to the Dantean Anomaly: the precipitation seesaw and droughts of 1302 to 1307 in Europe

The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both documentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities.