The far-reaching ecological effects of genetic fitness in a keystone predator species, grey wolves

Although loss of genetic fitness is known to be severely detrimental to the viability of populations, little is known about how changes in the genetic fitness of keystone species can impact the functioning of communities and ecosystems. Here we assessed how changes in the genetic fitness of a keystone predator, grey wolves, impacted the ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park over 2-decades. The decline and subsequent resurgence of inbreeding in the wolf population led to a rise and then fall in predation rates on moose, the primary prey of wolves and dominant mammalian herbivore in this system. Those changes in predation rate led to large fluctuations in moose abundance which in turn impacted browse rates on balsam fir, the dominant forage for moose during winter and an important species in the forest. Thus, forest dynamics can be traced back to changes in the genetic health of a predator population.

Testing ecological release as a compensating mechanism for mass mortality in a keystone predator

Top predator decline has been ubiquitous across systems over the past decades and centuries, and predicting changes in resultant community dynamics is a major challenge for ecologists and managers. Ecological release predicts that loss of a limiting factor, such as a dominant competitor or predator, can release a species from control, thus allowing increases in its size, density, and/or distribution. The 2014 sea star wasting syndrome (SSWS) outbreak decimated populations of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus along the Oregon coast, USA. This event provided an opportunity to test the predictions of ecological release across a broad spatial scale and determine the role of competitive dynamics in top predator recovery. We hypothesized that after P. ochraceus loss, populations of the subordinate sea star Leptasterias sp. would grow larger, more abundant, and move downshore. We based these predictions on prior research in Washington State showing that Leptasterias sp. competed with P. ochraceus for food. Further, we predicted that ecological release of Leptasterias sp. could provide a bottleneck to P. ochraceus recovery. Using field surveys, we found no clear change in density or distribution in Leptasterias sp. populations post-SSWS, and decreases in body size. In a field experiment, we found no evidence of competition between similar-sized Leptasterias sp. and P. ochraceus. Thus, the mechanisms underlying our predictions were not in effect along the Oregon coast, which we attribute to differences in habitat overlap and food availability between the 2 regions. Our results suggest that response to the loss of a dominant competitor can be unpredictable even when based in theory and previous research.

Paradoxical population resilience of a keystone predator to a toxic invasive species

ContextThe invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) has decimated populations of a keystone predator, the yellow-spotted monitor (Varanus panoptes), causing trophic cascades in Australian animal communities. Paradoxically, some V. panoptes populations coexist with toads. Demonstrating patterns in heterogeneous population-level impacts could reveal mechanisms that mediate individual effects, and provide managers with the ability to predict future impacts and assist in population recovery. AimsThe aim of the present study was to search for spatial patterns of population resilience of V. panoptes to invasive cane toads. MethodsPublished literature, unpublished data, reports and anecdotal information from trained herpetologists were used to test the emerging hypothesis that resilient predator populations are mainly coastal, whereas non-resilient populations are mostly inland. Key resultsPost-toad invasion data from 23 V. panoptes populations supported the idea that toad impacts on V. panoptes were heterogeneous; roughly half the populations could be designated as resilient (n=13) and half as non-resilient (n=10). Resilient populations had longer times since toad invasion than did non-resilient populations (39 versus 9 years respectively), supporting the idea that some recovery can occur. Non-resilient populations were exclusively inland (n=10), whereas resilient populations were split between inland (n=5) and coastal (n=8) populations. Resilient inland populations, however, were mainly confined to areas in which decades had passed since toad invasion. ConclusionsThe findings suggest that coastal V. panoptes populations fare much better than inland populations when it comes to surviving invading cane toads. ImplicationsUnambiguous recovery of monitor populations remains undemonstrated and will require long-term population monitoring before and after toad invasion.