Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 using polar faculae observations

Aims . Based on the monthly number of polar faculae, a forecast of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (SC25) is provided, as well as a prediction of the number of solar flares. Methods . Faculae near both solar poles have been visually observed using a commercial off-the-shelf 20 cm Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope since 1995. The monthly averages were corrected for varying seeing conditions and the heliographic latitude of the center of the solar disk B 0 . From the deduced relationship between the smoothed number of monthly polar faculae during the solar cycle minimum, and the subsequent maximum of the monthly sunspot number, a prediction has been made for the amplitude of the next solar cycle. The methodology used can be considered as a precursor technique. The expected number of M- and X-class flares was calculated based on a statistical approach. Results. The maximum of SC25 is predicted to be 118 +/- 29, of similar strength than the previous SC24. Also the number of M5 or stronger flares is expected to be comparable to that of the previous solar cycle.

Differential rotation of the solar corona and its importance for helioseismology

<p>It is shown that the solar corona rotates differentially at all heliocentric distances up to the source surface. As the distance increases, the differential rotation gradient decreases, and the rotation becomes more and more rigid. At small distances, the corona at latitudes above $\approx \pm 40^{\circ}$ rotates faster than the photosphere at the same latitudes. The type of the rotation depends also on the phase of the activity cycle. The differential rotation gradient is the largest in the vicinity of the cycle minimum. It is shown that time variations in the coronal rotation characteristics are associated with the tilt of the magnetic equator of the Sun. Based on the concept that the differential rotation of the corona reflects the rotation of deep subphotospheric layers, we compared the changes in the coronal rotation characteristics with distance with the helioseismic data and showed their satisfactory agreement. The results obtained allow us to suggest that the rotation of the solar corona can be used as indicator of the differential rotation of subphotospheric layers and calculate the nature of some current sheets in heliosphere/</p>

Polar flux imbalance at the sunspot cycle minimum governs hemispheric asymmetry in the following cycle

Aims. Hemispheric irregularities of solar magnetic activity is a well-observed phenomenon, the origin of which has been studied through numerical simulations and data analysis techniques. In this work we explore possible causes generating north-south asymmetry in the reversal timing and amplitude of the polar field during cycle minimum. Additionally, we investigate how hemispheric asymmetry is translated from cycle to cycle. Methods. We pursued a three-step approach. Firstly, we explored the asymmetry present in the observed polar flux and sunspot area by analysing observational data of the last 110 years. Secondly, we investigated the contribution from various factors involved in the Babcock–Leighton mechanism to the evolution and generation of polar flux by performing numerical simulations with a surface flux transport model and synthetic sunspot input profiles. Thirdly, translation of hemispheric asymmetry in the following cycle was estimated by assimilating simulation-generated surface magnetic field maps at cycle minimum in a dynamo simulation. Finally, we assessed our understanding of hemispheric asymmetry in the context of observations by performing additional observational data-driven simulations. Results. Analysis of observational data shows a profound connection between the hemispheric asymmetry in the polar flux at cycle minimum and the total hemispheric activity during the following cycle. We find that the randomness associated with the tilt angle of sunspots is the most crucial element among diverse components of the Babcock–Leighton mechanism in resulting hemispheric irregularities in the evolution of polar field. Our analyses with dynamo simulations indicate that an asymmetric poloidal field at the solar minimum can introduce significant north-south asymmetry in the amplitude and timing of peak activity during the following cycle. While observational data-driven simulations reproduce salient features of the observed asymmetry in the solar cycles during the last 100 years, we speculate that fluctuations in the mean-field α-effect and meridional circulation can have finite contributions in this regard.

Direct evidence of a full dipole flip during the magnetic cycle of a sun-like star

Context.The behaviour of the large-scale dipolar field, during a star’s magnetic cycle, can provide valuable insight into the stellar dynamo and associated magnetic field manifestations such as stellar winds.Aims.We investigate the temporal evolution of the dipolar field of the K dwarf 61 Cyg A using spectropolarimetric observations covering nearly one magnetic cycle equivalent to two chromospheric activity cycles.Methods.The large-scale magnetic field geometry is reconstructed using Zeeman Doppler imaging, a tomographic inversion technique. Additionally, the chromospheric activity is also monitored.Results.The observations provide an unprecedented sampling of the large-scale field over a single magnetic cycle of a star other than the Sun. Our results show that 61 Cyg A has a dominant dipolar geometry except at chromospheric activity maximum. The dipole axis migrates from the southern to the northern hemisphere during the magnetic cycle. It is located at higher latitudes at chromospheric activity cycle minimum and at middle latitudes during cycle maximum. The dipole is strongest at activity cycle minimum and much weaker at activity cycle maximum.Conclusions.The behaviour of the large-scale dipolar field during the magnetic cycle resembles the solar magnetic cycle. Our results are further confirmation that 61 Cyg A indeed has a large-scale magnetic geometry that is comparable to the Sun’s, despite being a slightly older and cooler K dwarf.

A prediction of the solar cycle 25

Here we report our recent prediction of the solar cycle 25 based on a newly developed scheme, which is used to investigate the predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle. The scheme is a combination of the empirical properties of solar cycles and a surface flux transport model to get the possible axial dipole moment evolution at a few years before cycle minimum, by which to get the subsequent cycle strength based on the correlation between the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum and the subsequent cycle strength. We apply this scheme to predict the large-scale field evolution since 2018 onwards. The results show that the northern polar field will keep on increasing, while the southern polar field almost keeps flat by the end of cycle 24. This leads to the cycle 25 strength of 125 ± 32, which is about 10% stronger than cycle 24 according to the mean value.

Shift of effective lightning areas during pre to post period of solar cycle minimum of 2008-2009 as determined from Schumann resonance studies at Agra, India

<p>Employing a set of 3-component search coil magnetometer, Schumann resonance studies have been in progress at Agra (Geograph. lat. 27.2°N, long. 78°E), India since 01 April, 2007. We have analysed the data for two periods; first from 01 April, 2007 to 31 March, 2008 (period-I), and then from 01 March, 2011 to 29 February, 2012 (period-II) which correspond to pre and post periods of solar cycle minimum of 2008-2009. From the diurnal variation of first mode intensity and frequency, we study the seasonal variations of global thunderstorm activity, effective source distance and level of lightning during both the periods. We show that world thunderstorm activity shifts to summer in the northern hemisphere as the effective source distance approaches close to the observer, and the level of intense lightning shifts from the month of July, 2007 in period-I to August, 2011 in period-II. This is supported by Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellite data also. A possible explanation in terms of increasing solar activity is suggested.</p>