Assessing the forecasting model ability in measuring the prevention transmission of COVID-19 pandemic: An application of visibility analysis using Inductive logic

Forecasting is an integral approach due to its ability to make informed act decisions and develop data-driven strategies. It's also used to make decisions related to current circumstances and predictions on future conditions. An integral part has been developed using visibility analysis for COVID-19 Outbreak, a lesson from Indonesia. The author identified that its topic has limited attention, especially in assessing the forecasting models. The issue comes from predicted results that are questionable or cannot be trusted without applying the visibility analysis in the forecasting model. The visibility analysis is required to assess the model's ability to forecast future events. In conjunction with the issue, this paper introduces the analysis of visibility error with the different concepts during model development for the transmission prevention measures in making the decision. This study applied a statistical approach to assess the visibility error of forecasting performance in determining how long periods of forecasting and deciding for transmission prevention measures COVID-19 pandemics. Also, we developed the visibility error of time-variant using inductive logic. The result indicated that the number of data required to perform forecasting work on the basis of forecasting model specifications. In conclusion, this study has been completed to develop the statistical formula for identifying the largest time horizon in forecasting model N = V + 2. Also, this developed model can assist the stakeholder in forecasting the number of transmission prevention and making the decision in case of COVID-19 pandemic.

ASSESSMENT OF THE VISIBILITY CAPABILITIES OF FOREST FIRE LOOKOUT TOWERS: THE CASE OF GEMLIK, BURSA, TURKEY

In Turkey, there are forest areas that are sensitive to fire in the first degree, especially along the coastline in the Marmara region and the Aegean and Mediterranean regions. As a result of forest fires, which is one of the biggest environmental disasters on forest resources, approximately 10000 hectares of forest area is damaged annually. One of the important elements of combating forest fires is early detection. In order to achieve this goal, the correct positioning of fire lookout towers is of great importance. In this study, it was aimed to evaluate visibility capabilities of forest fire lookout tower in Gemlik Forestry Enterprise Chief (FEC) located in the city of Bursa. Firstly, the visibility analysis was implemented using in ArcGIS 10.4.1 to evaluate the existing fire tower in the FEC, and then considering the potential fire lookout tower in the study area, the visible areas from both existing and new tower were determined. According to the results, while 63.55% of the study area was visible from the existing tower, this ratio increased to 77.39% when the second tower was added. When only the forest areas are evaluated, the existing tower could see 71.73% of the forest areas, while the visible forest areas have increased to 83.36% when the two towers were taken into account. It has been seen that the visibility capacities of existing towers and potential towers can be evaluated effectively by using GIS-based visibility analysis.

A Design for Wayfinding: Developing a Mobile Application to Enhance Spatial Orientation at Taipei Metro

Taipei Metro, since its inception in 1996, has become the most important public transport option for commuters and travelers in the metropolitan Taipei area, delivering over two million daily rides. Nevertheless, the interior environment of Taipei Metro has a reputation for being disorienting, especially to the infrequent passengers. By incorporating the methods of behavioral mapping and visibility analysis, this study argues that the occurrence of disorientation is highly dependent on visual properties of Taipei Metro’s interior layout. Specifically, the number of decision-making stops and the visibility conditions of stairs and escalators are found to be particularly influential. To enhance the passengers’ wayfinding experience, a mobile application comprised of two components is proposed. The Route Planner is to advise the passengers to avoid the areas that cause disorientation, while the Navigator, by providing the panoramic views of certain locations, can help the passengers reach their destinations more easily.

Practical Methods of GIS for Archaeologists: Viewshed Analysis – The Kingdom of Pylos example

Visibility (or Viewshed) Analysis in archeology is a function given through GIS, in purpose to contribute in the field of archaeology and especially in landscape archeology, by reconstituting the visual panorama of a study area of the past. The concept of landscape archeology is a multidimensional research process that is not limited to archaeologists but places a special emphasis on a multidisciplinary approach. Mycenaean Messenia was the area of study and analysis of the visual panorama for two important reasons. First of all, it is a large area, which presents territories of varying heterogeneity in terms of morphology, while having a large sea front and an open observation horizon. Secondly, it is one of the continental regions of the Mycenaean period, which has evoked the largest number of residential facilities, structures and tombs, and also has been extensively studied by archaeologists since the 1920s. The main aim of this paper is to make an effort to identify archaeological information, through the bibliographic references of the archaeologists who studied the area, with the GIS visibility analysis. For that reason, the author tries for those residential locations that have been assigned a role or function of the site by archaeologists, such as an observation station, to be controlled in parallel and on the basis of new technologies (GIS and Viewshed Analysis) if this view is verified.

3D Visibility Analysis for Evaluating the Attractiveness of Tourism Routes Computed from Social Media Photos

Social media is used nowadays for various location-based applications and services, aspiring to use the vast and timely potential of user-generated content. To evaluate the correctness, reliability and potential of these applications and services, they are mostly evaluated in terms of optimization or compared to existing authoritative data sources and services. With respect to route planning, criterion optimization is mostly implemented to evaluate the service effectiveness, in terms of, e.g., length, time or visited places. These evaluations are mostly limited in their effectiveness at presenting the complete experience of the route, since they are limited to a predefined criterion and are mostly implemented in two-dimensional space. In this research, we propose a comprehensive evaluation process, in which a tourism walking route is analyzed with respect to three-dimensional visibility that measures the attractiveness of the route relating to the user perception. To present our development, we showcase the use of Flickr, a social media photo-sharing online website that is popular among travelers that share their tourism experiences. We use Flickr photos to generate tourism walking routes and evaluate them in terms of the visible space. We show that the 3D visibility analysis identifies the various visible urban elements in the vicinity of the tourism routes, which are more attractive, scenery and include many tourism attractions. Since urban attractivity is often reflected in the photo-trails of Flickr photographers, we argue that using 3D visibility analysis that measures urban attractiveness and scenery should be considered for the purpose of analysis and evaluation of location-based services.