The Early Evening Transition in Southeastern US Tornado Environments

The response of severe local storms to environmental evolution across the early evening transition (EET) remains a forecasting challenge, particularly within the context of the Southeast US storm climatology, which includes the increased presence of low-CAPE environments and tornadic non-supercell modes. To disentangle these complex environmental interactions, Southeast severe convective reports spanning 2003-2018 are temporally binned relative to local sunset. Sounding-derived data corresponding to each report are used to characterize how the near-storm environment evolves across the EET, and whether these changes influence the mode, frequency, and tornadic likelihood of their associated storms. High-shear, high-CAPE (HSHC) environments are contrasted with high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments to highlight physical processes governing storm maintenance and tornadogenesis in the absence of large instability. Lastly, statistical analysis is performed to determine which aspects of the near-storm environment most effectively discriminate between tornadic (or significantly tornadic) and nontornadic storms towards constructing new sounding-derived forecast guidance parameters for multiple modal and environmental combinations. Results indicate that HSLC environments evolve differently than HSHC environments, particularly for non-supercell (e.g., quasi-linear convective system) modes. These low-CAPE environments sustain higher values of low-level shear and storm-relative helicity (SRH) and destabilize post-sunset – potentially compensating for minimal buoyancy. Furthermore, the existence of HSLC storm environments pre-sunset increases the likelihood of non-supercellular tornadoes post-sunset. Existing forecast guidance metrics such as the significant tornado parameter (STP) remain the most skillful predictors of HSHC tornadoes. However, HSLC tornado prediction can be improved by considering variables like precipitable water, downdraft CAPE, and effective inflow base.

Numerical simulation of the evening transition in the atmospheric boundary layer using LES and RANS models

<div>This study investigates the dynamics of the evening transition in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) diurnal cycle, specifically the decay of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) taking place there. Generally, the TKE decay is assumed to follow the power law E(t) ~ t<sup>-α,</sup> where E(t) and t are normalized TKE and normalized time, respectively, and the parameter α determines the decay rate. </div><div> <p>Two types of ABL numerical modeling are compared: three-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES) models and one-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The evening transition is simulated through facilitating the formation of the convective boundary layer (CBL) by having a constant positive surface heat flux, and the subsequent decay of the CBL when the surface heat flux is decreased. </p> <p>Several features of this process have been studied in relative depth, in particular the TKE decay rate at different stages of the evening transition, the sensitivity of the results to the domain size, and the dynamics of the large- and small-scale turbulence during the transition period. LES experiments with different setups were performed, and the results were then compared to those obtained through RANS experiments based on the k-epsilon model (a two-equation model for TKE and dissipation rate, where model constants are chosen to allow for correct simulation of SBL main properties [1], as well as CBL growth rate [2]).</p> <p>This study was funded by Russian Foundation of Basic Research within the project N 20-05-00776 and the grant of the RF President within the MK-1867.2020.5 project.</p> <div>1. Mortikov E. V., Glazunov A. V., Debolskiy A. V., Lykosov V. N., Zilitinkevich S. S. Modeling of the Dissipation Rate of Turbulent Kinetic Energy // Doklady Earth Sciences. 2019. V. 489(2). P. 1440-1443 </div> <p>2. Burchard H. Applied Turbulence Modelling in Marine Waters. Berlin, Germany: Springer, 2002. P. 57-59</p> </div>

An Analysis of the Processes Affecting Rapid Near-Surface Water Vapor Increases during the Afternoon to Evening Transition in Oklahoma

This study used 20 years of Oklahoma Mesonet data to investigate the changes of near-surface water vapor mixing ratio qυ during the afternoon to evening transition (AET). Similar to past studies, increases in qυ are found to occur near sunset. However, the location, magnitude, and timing of the qυ maximum occurring during the AET are shown to be dependent on the seasonal growth and harvest of vegetation across Oklahoma in the spring and summer months. Particularly, the late spring harvest of winter wheat grown in Oklahoma appears to modify the relative contribution of local and nonlocal processes on qυ. By analyzing time series of qυ during the AET, it is found that the likelihood of a presunset qυ maximum is strongly dependent upon vegetation, soil moisture, wind speed, and cloud cover. Analysis also reveals that the increase in qυ during the AET can increase the parcel conditional instability despite the surface cooling produced by loss of insolation. Next to known changes in low-level wind shear, these changes in instability and moisture demonstrate new ways the AET can modify the presence of the key ingredients relevant to explaining the climatological increase in severe convective storm hazards around sunset.

Impact of Along-Valley Orographic Variations on the Dispersion of Passive Tracers in a Stable Atmosphere

A numerical model is used to investigate the transport of passive tracers in an idealized Alpine valley during stable wintertime conditions after the evening transition. The valley is composed of an upstream-valley section, which opens on a narrower downstream valley section, which opens onto a plain. The ratio between the valley-floor widths of the upstream and downstream sections is either 4 (simulation P1) or 11.5 (P2). The change in the thermal structure of the atmosphere in the along-valley direction and over the plain leads to the development of an along-valley flow. This flow is up-valley in the upstream section during the first three hours of the P1 simulation, reversing to the down-valley direction afterwards, but remains up-valley during the six hours of the P2 simulation. The effect of wind dynamics on the dispersion of passive scalars is identified by tracking areas prone to stagnation, recirculation, and ventilation using the methodology developed by Allwine and Whiteman (1994). Zones identified as prone to stagnation are consistent with those of high tracer concentration in both simulations. The narrowing of the valley is found to significantly reduce ventilation in the upstream section, an observation quantified by a ventilation efficiency.

Numerical Study of Nocturnal Low-Level Jets over Gently Sloping Terrain

Nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) over gently sloping terrain typical of the U.S. Great Plains are investigated by means of direct numerical simulation. Such LLJs develop in a tilted atmospheric boundary layer as a result of inertia–gravity oscillations initiated by a change of the surface thermal forcing during the evening transition. External parameters are the free-atmospheric geostrophic wind, ambient atmospheric stratification, surface buoyancy forcing, and slope angle. The governing momentum and buoyancy balance equations are written in slope-following coordinates, and solved numerically in the Boussinesq approximation. The surface forcing is prescribed in a form of surface buoyancy or buoyancy flux, both of which are slope-uniform but change in time. LLJs over slopes are contrasted with LLJs over flat terrain. Slope-induced effects essentially modify the entire structure of nocturnal LLJs. The shape of the LLJ wind profile over a slope is characterized by a sharper and larger-magnitude maximum. The presence of the slope causes the along-slope advection of environmental potential temperature during the night. This advection can reignite static instability in the LLJ flow developing after the evening transition. The resulting turbulence leads to a complete or partial remix of the boundary layer flow and drastically changes the appearance of the LLJ in terms of its shape and vertical position. A pronounced nighttime jet can also develop from the daytime convective boundary layer in the absence of any free-atmospheric geostrophic forcing. The daytime flow preconditioning, an important precursor of the nocturnal LLJ development, plays an especially important role in LLJs over a slope.