Influence of the Upstream Terrain on the Formation of a Cold Frontal Snowband in Northeast China

We investigated the influence of upstream terrain on the formation of a cold frontal snowband in Northeast China. We conducted numerical sensitivity experiments that gradually removed the upstream terrain and compared the results with a control experiment. Our results indicate a clear negative effect of upstream terrain on the formation of snowbands, especially over large-scale terrain. By thoroughly examining the ingredients necessary for snowfall (instability, lifting and moisture), we found that the release of mid-level conditional instability, followed by the release of low-level or near surface instabilities (inertial instability, conditional instability or conditional symmetrical instability), contributed to formation of the snowband in both experiments. The lifting required for the release of these instabilities was mainly a result of frontogenetic forcing and upper gravity waves. However, the snowband in the control experiment developed later and was weaker than that in the experiment without upstream terrain. Two factors contributed to this negative topographic effect: (1) the mountain gravity waves over the upstream terrain, which perturbed the frontogenetic circulation by rapidly changing the vertical motion and therefore did not favor the release of instabilities in the absence of persistent ascending motion; and (2) the decrease in the supply of moisture as a result of blocking of the upstream terrain, which changed both the moisture and instability structures leeward of the mountains. A conceptual model is presented that shows the effects of the instabilities and lifting on the development of cold frontal snowbands in downstream mountains.

An Analysis of the Processes Affecting Rapid Near-Surface Water Vapor Increases during the Afternoon to Evening Transition in Oklahoma

This study used 20 years of Oklahoma Mesonet data to investigate the changes of near-surface water vapor mixing ratio qυ during the afternoon to evening transition (AET). Similar to past studies, increases in qυ are found to occur near sunset. However, the location, magnitude, and timing of the qυ maximum occurring during the AET are shown to be dependent on the seasonal growth and harvest of vegetation across Oklahoma in the spring and summer months. Particularly, the late spring harvest of winter wheat grown in Oklahoma appears to modify the relative contribution of local and nonlocal processes on qυ. By analyzing time series of qυ during the AET, it is found that the likelihood of a presunset qυ maximum is strongly dependent upon vegetation, soil moisture, wind speed, and cloud cover. Analysis also reveals that the increase in qυ during the AET can increase the parcel conditional instability despite the surface cooling produced by loss of insolation. Next to known changes in low-level wind shear, these changes in instability and moisture demonstrate new ways the AET can modify the presence of the key ingredients relevant to explaining the climatological increase in severe convective storm hazards around sunset.

Assessing the Influence of Convective Downdrafts and Surface Enthalpy Fluxes on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

The thermodynamic impacts of downdraft-induced cooling/drying and downstream recovery via surface enthalpy fluxes within tropical cyclones (TCs) were investigated using dropsonde observations collected from 1996 to 2017. This study focused on relatively weak TCs (tropical depression, tropical storm, category 1 hurricane) that were subjected to moderate (4.5–11.0 m s−1) levels of environmental vertical wind shear. The dropsonde data were analyzed in a shear-relative framework and binned according to TC intensity change in the 24 h following the dropsonde observation time, allowing for comparison between storms that underwent different intensity changes. Moisture and temperature asymmetries in the lower troposphere yielded a relative maximum in lower-tropospheric conditional instability in the downshear quadrants and a relative minimum in instability in the upshear quadrants, regardless of intensity change. However, the instability increased as the intensification rate increased, particularly in the downshear quadrants. This was due to increased boundary layer moist entropy relative to the temperature profile above the boundary layer. Additionally, significantly larger surface enthalpy fluxes were observed as the intensification rate increased, particularly in the upshear quadrants. These results suggest that in intensifying storms, enhanced surface enthalpy fluxes in the upshear quadrants allow downdraft-modified boundary layer air to recover moisture and heat more effectively as it is advected cyclonically around the storm. By the time the air reaches the downshear quadrants, the lower-tropospheric conditional instability is enhanced, which is speculated to be more favorable for updraft growth and deep convection.

Revisiting Azimuthally Asymmetric Moist Instability in the Outer Core of Sheared Tropical Cyclones

This study revisits the characteristics and physical processes of the azimuthally asymmetric distribution of moist instability in the outer core of vertically sheared tropical cyclones (TCs) using a numerical model. The results indicate that a downshear–upshear contrast in outer-core conditional instability occurs in the weakly sheared TCs, while an enhanced downshear-left–downshear-right difference is found in strongly sheared storms. Specifically, lower (higher) conditional instability arises downshear left (right) in the strongly sheared TCs. Downward transports of low-entropy air by convective and mesoscale downdrafts in principal rainbands reduce the equivalent potential temperature (θe) in the downshear-left boundary layer, contributing to lower convective available potential energy. Positive horizontal advection of both potential temperature and water vapor by the asymmetric outflow leads to a midlevel maximum of θe in the same quadrant. Hence, a positive θe vertical gradient (thus potential stability) is present in the downshear-left outer core. In the downshear-right quadrant, a lack of convective downdrafts, together with surface fluxes, leads to higher θe in the boundary layer. A dry intrusion is found at the middle to upper levels in the downshear-right outer core, and significant negative horizontal advection of water vapor produces low θe near the midtroposphere. A negative vertical gradient of θe (thus potential instability) in the outer core arises below the downshear-right midtroposphere. The presence of azimuthally asymmetric moist instability is expected to play an important role in fostering and maintaining azimuthally asymmetric convective activity in the outer core of TCs.

Severe weather over the Highveld of South Africa during November 2016

November months are notorious for severe weather over the Highveld of South Africa. November 2016 was no exception and a large number of severe events occurred. Very heavy rainfall, large hail and tornadoes were reported. The aim of this paper is to compare the synoptic circulation of November 2016 with the long-term mean November circulation and to investigate some sounding derived parameters. Furthermore, a few of the severe weather events are described in detail. The surface temperatures and dewpoint temperatures were found to be higher than normal resulting in increased conditional instability over the Highveld. Low-level moisture originated over the warm Mozambique Channel and the 500 hPa temperature trough was located favourably over the Highveld; further east than normal. The combination of these factors and weak steering winds resulted in flash flooding on the 9th while favourable wind shear conditions caused the development of a tornado on 15 November. The favourable circulation patterns and moisture gave rise to an atmosphere in which severe weather was a possibility, and the awareness of such factors is used as one of many tools when considering the severe weather forecast. The consideration of the daily variables derived from sounding data were good precursors for the prediction of severe thunderstorm development over the Highveld during November 2016. It is recommended that an operational meteorologist incorporates upper air sounding data into the forecasting process and not to rely on numerical prediction models exclusively.

Numerical Simulations of a Tornadic Supercell over the Mediterranean

On 28 November 2012, a multivortex EF3 tornado occurred in southeastern Italy causing one fatality and estimated damage of 60 million euros. At approximately 1050 LT (0950 UTC), this tornado, which initially formed in association with a supercell thunderstorm over the Ionian Sea, moved inland. The environment where the tornadic supercell developed was characterized by large vertical wind shear in the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere and moderate conditional instability. Mesoscale-model numerical simulations show that it is possible to produce a simulated supercell thunderstorm with a track, change in intensity, and evolution similar to the actual one that spawned the tornado in Taranto, southern Italy. The genesis of the simulated supercell is due to a combination of mesoscale meteorological features: warm low-level air advected toward the Ionian Sea, combined with midlevel cooling due to an approaching trough, increased the potential instability; the intense vertical shear favored the possibility of supercell development; and boundary layer rolls over the Ionian Sea moved in phase with the cells produced by the orography of Calabria to supply ascent, moisture, and heat to the convection. An unusual feature of the present case is the central role of the orography, which was verified in a sensitivity experiment where it was reduced by 80%.

The Missing Link between Terrain-Induced Potential Vorticity Banners and Banded Convection

On 1 February 2014, the southern side of the Alps was affected by a severe snowstorm that forced authorities to issue the highest level of avalanche danger in southern parts of Austria. The northern side of the Alps was mostly dry. Nevertheless, radar imagery captured the evolution of quasi-steady convective cloud bands over the northern Alpine foreland with a remarkable length of up to 300 km. This study illuminates the processes that generated these cloud bands based on numerical simulations. The storm was associated with a deep large-scale trough that caused strong southwesterly cross-Alpine flow, orographic precipitation on the southern side, and foehnlike subsidence on the northern side of the Alps. Orographic potential vorticity (PV) banners developed at small-scale topographic features embedded in the Alps and extended downstream over the northern Alpine foreland. Convective cloud bands were aligned parallel to these PV banners. They formed in an environment of inertial instability (negative absolute vorticity) and conditional instability. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the structure and size of these cloud bands are strongly sensitive to the small-scale terrain roughness. Removing small-scale topographic features suppresses the formation of orographic vorticity banners, which in turn suppresses the development of cloud bands. These results suggest that the release of inertial instability at negative orographic vorticity banners was crucial for establishing circulations and associated uplift that triggered conditional instability. To summarize, inertial instability was most likely responsible for the banded structure and conditional instability for the convective nature of these cloud bands.

Deep Convection and Column Water Vapor over Tropical Land versus Tropical Ocean: A Comparison between the Amazon and the Tropical Western Pacific

The relationships between the onset of tropical deep convection, column water vapor (CWV), and other measures of conditional instability are analyzed with 2 yr of data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility in Manacapuru, Brazil, as part of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) campaign, and with 3.5 yr of CWV derived from global positioning system meteorology at a nearby site in Manaus, Brazil. Important features seen previously in observations over tropical oceans—precipitation conditionally averaged by CWV exhibiting a sharp pickup at high CWV, and the overall shape of the CWV distribution for both precipitating and nonprecipitating points—are also found for this tropical continental region. The relationship between rainfall and CWV reflects the impact of lower-free-tropospheric moisture variability on convection. Specifically, CWV over land, as over ocean, is a proxy for the effect of free-tropospheric moisture on conditional instability as indicated by entraining plume calculations from GOAmazon data. Given sufficient mixing in the lower troposphere, higher CWV generally results in greater plume buoyancies through a deep convective layer. Although sensitivity of buoyancy to other controls in the Amazon is suggested, such as boundary layer and microphysical processes, the CWV dependence is consistent with the observed precipitation onset. Overall, leading aspects of the relationship between CWV and the transition to deep convection in the Amazon have close parallels over tropical oceans. The relationship is robust to averaging on time and space scales appropriate for convective physics but is strongly smoothed for averages greater than 3 h or 2.5°.

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Convection over Tropical Africa and the East Atlantic

Using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the modulation of convection by African easterly waves (AEWs) is investigated over regions of the east Atlantic and tropical Africa. To explain the modulation of convection, the large-scale environment (lift, moisture, conditional instability, and shear) is also examined as a function of AEW phase in each region. Over semiarid portions of tropical Africa, unconditional rain rates are greatest in the northerly phase of AEWs due to the strong adiabatic forcing for ascent. Along the Guinea Coast, the western coast of Africa, and over the east Atlantic—where forcing for ascent is weaker—rainfall is shifted toward the trough where the air is moist. Significant contrasts in the characteristics of convection as a function of AEW phase—comparable in magnitude to regional contrasts—are also observed. In all regions, large and high echo-top convective systems are more sensitive to AEW phase than small and low echo-top systems. In semiarid regions, deep convection and large high echo-top convective systems account for a large fraction of the rainfall in the ridge and northerlies. Stratiform and small low echo-top convective systems dominate in the trough and southerlies. Convective system height and conditional rain rates increase with conditional instability and system sizes may increase with shear. Over the east Atlantic, stratiform fractions and convective system sizes and echo-top heights are greatest in the trough while the ridge is dominated by shallow convection. This is primarily related to the presence of moist air in the trough and dry air in the ridge.

Enhanced Persistence of Equatorial Waves via Convergence Coupling in the Stochastic Multicloud Model

Recent observational and theoretical studies show a systematic relationship between tropical moist convection and measures related to large-scale convergence. It has been suggested that cloud fields in the column stochastic multicloud model compare better with observations when using predictors related to convergence rather than moist energetics (e.g., CAPE) as per Peters et al. Here, this work is extended to a fully prognostic multicloud model. A nonlocal convergence-coupled formulation of the stochastic multicloud model is implemented without wind-dependent surface heat fluxes. In a series of idealized Walker cell simulations, this convergence coupling enhances the persistence of Kelvin wave analogs in dry regions of the domain while leaving the dynamics in moist regions largely unaltered. This effect is robust for changes in the amplitude of the imposed sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. In essence, this method provides a soft convergence coupling that allows for increased interaction between cumulus convection and the large-scale circulation but does not suffer from the deleterious wave–conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) behavior of the Kuo-type moisture-convergence closures.