A Theory of Subnational Government Capital Market Information

Chapter 2 develops the theoretical base for why and how information resolution is expected to relate to subnational government capital market borrowing by reviewing and extending the corporate finance literature. Based on theories of information, it argues that although countries must have a certain level of maturity along economic, financial and market, political, and legal institutions before successfully managing a well-functioning capital market, the crowning factor behind an efficient subnational government credit market, beyond the fundamental dimensions of institutional maturity, is credit contractibility in the system and tools of information certification and monitoring available to subnational governments. This chapter details how information problems manifest in credit contractibility, reviews how information relates to capital finance, and applies theories of capital markets to subnational government borrowing, debt size, and debt composition. It discusses how information resolution institutions and credit quality can enhance subnational government capital markets and proposes testable hypotheses.

Social Capital Participation in Public-Private Partnership Projects in China: Do Government Credit Risks Matter?

In China the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects are adopted to achieve the strategic goals of governments and to ensure the sustainable operation of local government finances. However, rigorous empirical research on the determinants of social capital’s participation in PPP is sparse. This study investigates the effects of government behaviors on the participation of social capital in the PPP projects by focusing on the role of government credit risks. We construct a dynamic game and adopt an empirical analysis using panel data of Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2018. Our findings reveal a significant inverse relationship between the government credit risk and the social capital participation in PPP. It provides policy-makers and researchers with useful information about using the PPP to promote investment on infrastructures while ensuring a sustainable local fiscal system.

Social Capital Participation in Public-Private Partnership Projects in China: Do Government Credit Risks Matter?

In China the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects are adopted to achieve the strategic goals of governments and to ensure the sustainable operation of local government finances. However, rigorous empirical research on the determinants of social capital’s participation in PPP is sparse. This study investigates the effects of government behaviors on the participation of social capital in the PPP projects by focusing on the role of government credit risks. We construct a dynamic game and adopt an empirical analysis using panel data of Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2018. Our findings reveal a significant inverse relationship between the government credit risk and the social capital participation in PPP. It provides policy-makers and researchers with useful information about using the PPP to promote investment on infrastructures while ensuring a sustainable local fiscal system.

Analisis Persepsi Bendahara Pengeluaran Atas Aspek Kepentingan dan Kinerja Pengguna dan Mitra Perbankan Dalam Penerapan Kartu Kredit Pemerintah

The Indonesian government has implemented government credit card since July 2019. This research provides importance and performance analysis of implementing government credit cards in ministries/agencies of Indonesia. This study collected empirical data from an online questionnaire which was distributed to alumni of the expenditure treasurer training organized by the Budget and Treasury Education and Training Center. The selected samples from 222 respondents, was processed using importance and performance analysis. The results of this empirical research shows the performance of KKP holders and the customer service of KKP issuing banks was still below expectations according to the perception of spending treasurers. KKP holders must be provided with intensive socialization on the use of KKP and customer complaint services at KKP issuing banks must be improved. Other results based on non implementing KKP treasurer perceptions, there are still some obstacles faced by ministries/agencies at the implementation of government credit cards. The results of this study cannot be generalized to the implementation of KKP in Indonesia, because of limited number of respondent samples. Abstrak Pemerintah Indonesia telah menerapkan metode pembayaran tagihan dari rekanan pemerintah menggunakan uang persediaan kartu kredit pemerintah mulai bulan Juli tahun 2019. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kepentingan dan kinerja atas penerapan kartu kredit pemerintah pada kementerian/lembaga. Data penelitian diperoleh melalui kuesioner online yang disebar melalui media sosial whatsapp. Responden penelitian merupakan alumni pelatihan bendahara pengeluaran yang diselenggarakan oleh Pusdiklat Anggaran dan Perbendaharaan. Sebagian sampel penelitian yang berjumlah 222 responden diolah menggunakan analisis kepentingan dan kinerja. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kinerja pemegang KKP dan layanan bank penerbit KKP masih di bawah harapan menurut persepsi bendahara pengeluaran. Pemegang KKP harus diberikan sosialisasi penggunaan KKP yang memadai dan layanan keluhan pelanggan pada bank penerbit KKP harus ditingkatkan. Selain itu masih ditemukan beberapa kendala yang dihadapi oleh kementerian/lembaga pada saat penerapan kartu kredit pemerintah. Dengan keterbatasan jumlah sampel responden, maka hasil penelitian ini tidak dapat digeneralisasi untuk penerapan KKP di Indonesia.

Forecast and Simulation of the Public Opinion on the Public Policy Based on the Markov Model

Public policy and public opinion directly affect the image of the government, but due to the lack of appropriate monitoring and early warning tools, the government’s handling of credit changes is seriously lagging behind. In response to this problem, this paper integrates the internet, public information, market credit information, and other data, uses hidden Markov models and natural language processing technology, and establishes a modern government public policy and public opinion monitoring and early warning model to evaluate government credit in real time; the government can formulate relevant policies based on the evaluation results to improve the government’s governance capabilities. Empirical analysis shows that, based on the dynamic scoring framework and Markov model, the government credit monitoring and early warning models established, respectively, have 90% of the reference value, and the analysis results have the same reference. This method can effectively predict the trend of hot online public opinion. The subsequent establishment of an online public opinion early warning system and an online public opinion guidance mechanism provided theoretical support.

INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT CREDIT RISK ON PPP PROJECTS IN OPERATION STAGE

In PPP projects, insufficient risk management may lead to the breakdown of partnerships and even project failures. Among them, the government credit risk is regarded as unbearable risk and a key risk affecting PPP projects because of its high frequency and impact. Therefore, based on the contractual relationship between both sides, a principal-agent model for the optimal choice of investors and the government under the government default probability is constructed. This paper explored the quantity relationship of the government credit risk and the project utility through analysing the effect of government default probability perceived by both parties on the investor’s optimal effort level and government allocation ratio. The results demonstrate that the government credit risk will decrease the effort level of investors and have a negative impact on the utility of the project. Furthermore, the government’s modification of the contract allocation ratio based on its own credit rating can offset the negative impact of its credit risk on the effectiveness of the project. But this regulatory effect is limited. The findings effectively provide some insights and theoretical basis for solving the negative effects of government credit risk.

Exploring the Risk Factors of Infrastructure PPP Projects for Sustainable Delivery: A Social Network Perspective

Due to the relatively long period and large capital flow of public-private partnership (PPP) projects, PPP participants are faced with a complex risk situation impeding the sustainable project delivery. In recent years, risk management of PPP projects has received increasing attention. In this paper, twenty risk factors associated with infrastructure PPP projects were identified by literature review and in-depth case studies. Relationship data for these twenty typical risk factors were obtained through structured interviews. Based on the obtained data, the risk relationship network within infrastructure PPP projects was identified, and the network structure characteristics were analyzed, including individual node attributes and the influence and cohesion of subgroups. The results indicate that key risk factor nodes can form a reaction chain via bridge nodes that can trigger a risk domino effect within PPP projects. Specifically, the key risk factors of PPP projects are divided into two categories, the first of which include risk factors that have powerful and independent influence, such as delay in government approval, government credit, and imperfect legal and regulatory systems. The second category includes risk factors that are highly vulnerable and easily influenced, such as completion risks, insufficient revenue in the market, and fee change. A key risk factor reaction chain is one in which legal change leads to a decline in government credit rating, triggering a contract risk. Twelve bridge nodes were identified that play an important intermediary role in the network, e.g., legal change, public objection, and financing risk. This paper extends the application of social network analysis in PPP projects management research and identifies the key risk factors and crucial factors influencing chain reactions in PPP projects. The results provide a more in-depth understanding of sustainable PPP project management for government agencies and private enterprises.