Quantifying the relationship between genetic diversity and population size suggests natural selection cannot explain Lewontin's paradox

Neutral theory predicts that genetic diversity increases with population size, yet observed levels of diversity across metazoans vary only two orders of magnitude while population sizes vary over several. This unexpectedly narrow range of diversity is known as Lewontin’s Paradox of Variation (1974). While some have suggested selection constrains diversity, tests of this hypothesis seem to fall short. Here, I revisit Lewontin’s Paradox to assess whether current models of linked selection are capable of reducing diversity to this extent. To quantify the discrepancy between pairwise diversity and census population sizes across species, I combine previously-published estimates of pairwise diversity from 172 metazoan taxa with newly derived estimates of census sizes. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, I show this relationship is significant accounting for phylogeny, but with high phylogenetic signal and evidence that some lineages experience shifts in the evolutionary rate of diversity deep in the past. Additionally, I find a negative relationship between recombination map length and census size, suggesting abundant species have less recombination and experience greater reductions in diversity due to linked selection. However, I show that even assuming strong and abundant selection, models of linked selection are unlikely to explain the observed relationship between diversity and census sizes across species.

Broad-scale variation in human genetic diversity levels is predicted by purifying selection on coding and non-coding elements

Analyses of genetic variation in many taxa have established that neutral genetic diversity is shaped by natural selection at linked sites. Whether the source of selection is primarily the fixation of strongly beneficial alleles (selective sweeps) or purifying selection on deleterious mutations (background selection) remains unknown, however. We address this question in humans by fitting a model of the joint effects of selective sweeps and background selection to autosomal polymorphism data from the 1000 Genomes Project. After controlling for variation in mutation rates along the genome, a model of background selection alone explains ~60% of the variance in diversity levels at the megabase scale. Adding the effects of selective sweeps driven by adaptive substitutions to the model does not improve the fit, and when both modes of selection are considered jointly, selective sweeps are estimated to have had little or no effect on linked neutral diversity. The regions under purifying selection are best predicted by phylogenetic conservation, with ~80% of the deleterious mutations affecting neutral diversity occurring in non-exonic regions. Thus, background selection is the dominant mode of linked selection in humans, with marked effects on diversity levels throughout autosomes.

Heterogeneity in effective size across the genome: effects on the Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate (IICR) and implications for demographic inference under linked selection.

The relative contribution of selection and neutrality in shaping species genetic diversity is one of the most central and controversial questions in evolutionary theory. Genomic data provide growing evidence that linked selection, i.e. the modification of genetic diversity at neutral sites through linkage with selected sites, might be pervasive over the genome. Several studies proposed that linked selection could be modelled as first approximation by a local reduction (e.g. purifying selection, selective sweeps) or increase (e.g. balancing selection) of effective population size (Ne). At the genome-wide scale, this leads to a large variance of Ne from one region to another, reflecting the heterogeneity of selective constraints and recombination rates between regions. We investigate here the consequences of this variation of Ne on the genome-wide distribution of coalescence times. The underlying motivation concerns the impact of linked selection on demographic inference, because the distribution of coalescence times is at the heart of several important demographic inference approaches. Using the concept of Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate, we demonstrate that in a panmictic population, linked selection always results in a spurious apparent decrease of Ne along time. Balancing selection has a particularly large effect, even when it concerns a very small part of the genome. We quantify the expected magnitude of the spurious decrease of Ne in humans and Drosophila melanogaster, based on Ne distributions inferred from real data in these species. We also find that the effect of linked selection can be significantly reduced by that of population structure.

Genome-wide evolutionary response of European oaks since the Little Ice Age

The pace of tree microevolution during Anthropocene warming is largely unknown. We used a retrospective approach to monitor genomic changes in oak trees since the Little Ice Age (LIA). Allelic frequency changes were assessed from whole-genome pooled sequences for four age-structured cohorts of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) dating back to 1680, in each of three different oak forests in France. The genetic covariances of allelic frequency changes increased between successive time periods, highlighting genome-wide effects of linked selection. We found imprints of convergent linked selection in the three forests during the late LIA, and a shift of selection during more recent time periods. The changes in allelic covariances within and between forests mirrored the documented changes in the occurrence of extreme events (droughts and frosts) over the last three hundred years. The genomic regions with the highest covariances were enriched in genes involved in plant responses to pathogens and abiotic stresses (temperature and drought). These responses are consistent with the reported sequence of frost (or drought) and disease damage ultimately leading to the oak dieback after extreme events. Our results therefore provide evidence of selection operating on long-lived species during recent climatic changes.

Why do species get a thin slice of π? Revisiting Lewontin’s Paradox of Variation

Under neutral theory, the level of polymorphism in an equilibrium population is expected to increase with population size. However, observed levels of diversity across metazoans vary only two orders of magnitude, while census population sizes (Nc) are expected to vary over several. This unexpectedly narrow range of diversity is a longstanding enigma in evolutionary genetics known as Lewontin’s Paradox of Variation (1974). Since Lewontin’s observation, it has been argued that selection constrains diversity across species, yet tests of this hypothesis seem to fall short of explaining the orders-of-magnitude reduction in diversity observed in nature. In this work, I revisit Lewontin’s Paradox and assess whether current models of linked selection are likely to constrain diversity to this extent. To quantify the discrepancy between pairwise diversity and census population sizes across species, I combine genetic data from 172 metazoan taxa with estimates of census sizes from geographic occurrence data and population densities estimated from body mass. Next, I fit the relationship between previously-published estimates of genomic diversity and these approximate census sizes to quantify Lewontin’s Paradox. While previous across-taxa population genetic studies have avoided accounting for phylogenetic non-independence, I use phylogenetic comparative methods to investigate the diversity census size relationship, estimate phylogenetic signal, and explore how diversity changes along the phylogeny. I consider whether the reduction in diversity predicted by models of recurrent hitch-hiking and background selection could explain the observed pattern of diversity across species. Since the impact of linked selection is mediated by recombination map length, I also investigate how map lengths vary with census sizes. I find species with large census sizes have shorter map lengths, leading these species to experience greater reductions in diversity due to linked selection. Even after using high estimates of the strength of sweeps and background selection, I find linked selection likely cannot explain the shortfall between predicted and observed diversity levels across metazoan species. Furthermore, the predicted diversity under linked selection does not fit the observed diversity–census-size relationship, implying that processes other than background selection and recurrent hitchhiking must be limiting diversity.