Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest

We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adult population of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects (n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks before protest date. We measured participation (ex post) and beliefs about the other subjects' participation (ex ante) in an online survey, used a randomized informational intervention to induce exogenous variance in beliefs, and estimated the causal effect of a change in belief on the probability of participation using a control function approach. Participation decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: a one percentage-point increase of belief causes a .67 percentage-point decrease in the probability of participation in the average subject.

Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest

We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adult population of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects (n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks before protest date. We measured participation (ex post) and beliefs about the other subjects' participation (ex ante) in an online survey, used a randomized informational intervention to induce exogenous variance in beliefs, and estimated the causal effect of a change in belief on the probability of participation using a control function approach. Participation decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: a one percentage-point increase of belief causes a .67 percentage-point decrease in the probability of participation in the average subject.

Cooperation in Threshold Public Projects with Binary Actions

When can cooperation arise from self-interested decisions in public goods games? And how can we help agents to act cooperatively? We examine these classical questions in a pivotal participation game, a variant of public good games, where heterogeneous agents make binary participation decisions on contributing their endowments, and the public project succeeds when it has enough contributions. We prove it is NP-complete to decide the existence of a cooperative Nash equilibrium such that the project succeeds. We demonstrate that the decision problem becomes easy if agents are homogeneous enough. We then propose two algorithms to help cooperation in the game. Our first algorithm adds an external investment to the public project, and our second algorithm uses matching funds. We show the cost to induce a cooperative Nash equilibrium is near-optimal for both algorithms. Finally, the cost of matching funds can always be smaller than the cost of adding an external investment. Intuitively, matching funds provide a greater incentive for cooperation than adding an external investment does.

Determinants of Off-Farm Labour Participation and Time Allocation: Double-Hurdle Results in the Case of Fiji

This study analyses the determinants of off-farm labour participation decisions of the agricultural households in Fiji. The analysis of joint decision to participate and the amount of time allocated to work is undertaken by using the double-hurdle model based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2008–2009. The results show that household head status, age, marital status, ethnicity and education influence off-farm participation decisions of the farm households. On the households’ time allocation decisions towards off-farm income-generating activities, the family size, remittances, income and several types of agricultural outputs influence the labour supply decisions. These households and farm characteristics are important in creating better returns, reducing risks from land constraints and natural disasters, managing income and consumption uncertainties and providing quality farm inputs. The results highlight some important policy implications that would help address low agricultural productivity and render increased support for off-farm income earning activities.

Preferences for crop insurance attributes among cocoa farmers in Ghana

PurposeThis article analyzes farmers' preferences for different nonindexed crop insurance alternatives, using discrete choice experiment data on cocoa farmers from southern Ghana. We examine farmers' attendance to attributes by comparing self-reported attribute nonattendance (ANA) to the behavior inferred from the choices.Design/methodology/approachWe utilize the latent class endogenous attribute attendance (EAA) model to address potential endogeneity by jointly modelling farmers' attribute processing strategies with their choice of attributes of the insurance products.FindingsThe results show that premium levels, mode and length of indemnity payouts tend to influence farmers' preferences for crop insurance products. The findings also reveal that credit-constrained farmers attend more to premium and payment mode attributes of the crop insurance products and that credit-constrained farmers tend to exhibit lower willingness-to-pay estimates for the crop insurance attributes.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings from the study suggest that credit constraints do not only limit input use, but also tend to have statistically significant impact on farmers' cocoa insurance participation decisions.Originality/valueThe study examines the impact of credit constraints on farmers' crop insurance preferences while accounting for ANA.

Institutional Development and Participation on House Roll-Call Votes, 1819–1921

An emerging body of literature seeks to understand the determinants of roll-call participation in the early U.S. House of Representatives. A multitude of factors—electoral, institutional, and partisan—exerted significant influence over members’ participation decisions during the time we analyze. We analyze roll-call abstention rates from the 16th to 66th Congress (1819 to 1921) to determine whether electorally at-risk members differed in their attentiveness to their congressional responsibilities than members who faced less or no risk. By examining a century of congresses, we compare both the post-Civil War era immediately prior to adoption of the Australian ballot as well as the pre-Civil War congresses to identify those factors that affected members’ decision to participate on roll-call votes. The time series encompasses important electoral and institutional reforms, including the emergence of strong party caucuses and the enhanced agenda setting prerogatives of the majority party. Our results show that members responded to changes in the political environment, including to electoral concerns, and this effect is present prior to the Civil War. We also find that during the era of the strong Speaker, majority party members significantly increased their roll-call participation rates.

Development of a core outcome set for the evaluation of interventions to enhance trial participation decisions on behalf of adults who lack capacity to consent: a mixed methods study (COnSiDER Study)

BackgroundTrials involving adults who lack capacity to provide consent for themselves rely on proxy or surrogate decision-makers, usually a family member, to make decisions about participation. Following decades of innovations to improve informed consent in trials, the first interventions to enhance proxy decisions about trial participation are now being developed. However, a lack of standardised outcome measurement in the evaluation of these novel interventions will impede comparisons between their effectiveness. The aim of this study was to establish an agreed standardised core outcome set (COS) for use when evaluating interventions to improve proxy decisions about trial participation on behalf of adults who lack capacity to consent.MethodsWe used established methods to develop the COS including a consensus study with key stakeholder groups comprising those who will use the COS in research (researchers and healthcare professionals) and patients or their representatives. Following a scoping review to identify candidate items, we used a modified two-round Delphi survey to achieve consensus on core outcomes, with equivocal items taken to a consensus meeting for discussion. The COS was finalised following an online consensus meeting in October 2020.ResultsA total of 28 UK stakeholders (5 researchers, 10 trialists, 3 patient/family representatives, 7 recruiters and 3 advisors/approvers) participated in the online Delphi survey to rank candidate items. Items were broadly grouped into three categories: how family members make decisions, their experiences of making decisions, and the personal aspects that influence the decision. Following the Delphi survey, 27 items were included and ten items exhibited no consensus which required discussion at the consensus meeting. Sixteen participants attended the meeting, including additional patient/family representatives invited to increase representation from this key group. We reached consensus for the inclusion of 28 outcome items, including one selected at the consensus meeting.ConclusionsThe study identified outcomes that should be measured as a minimum in all evaluations of interventions to enhance proxy decisions about trials. Further work is required to identify appropriate measures and timing of outcome measurement. Enhancing the quality of proxy decisions will help improve trial participation decisions for these vulnerable groups. Trial registration: The study is registered on the COMET database (https://www.comet-initiative.org/Studies/Details/1409)

ICT adoption and tourism consumption among rural residents in China

Little is known about the tourism consumption of the rural population in developing and emerging countries. This note fills the gap by investigating how information and communication technology (ICT) adoption influences tourism participation decisions and expenditure of rural residents in China. We estimate the data of 11,000 samples from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey data, using both recursive bivariate probit and treatment effects models. Findings reveal that ICT adoption increases the probability of tourism participation among rural Chinese residents by 18.6% but decreases the expenditure of tourism participants by 442 Yuan/capita on average. We also show that ICT adoption empowers rural women for tourism consumption. Our findings highlight the importance of improving the rural ICT infrastructure and promoting ICT adoption among rural residents to boost rural tourism consumption and social welfare.

Crowd-shipping for urban food rescue logistics

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to gain a better understanding of how a crowd-shipping platform can achieve a critical mass of senders and carrier crowd members to yield network effects that are necessary for the platform to grow and thrive. Specifically, this research studies the participation decisions of both senders and carriers over time and the impacts of the resulting feedback loop on platform growth and performance.Design/methodology/approachAn agent-based model is developed and used to study dynamic behavior and network effects within a simulated crowd-shipping platform. The model allows both carriers and senders to be represented as autonomous, heterogeneous and adaptive agents, whose decisions to participate in the platform impact the participation of other agents over time. Survey data inform the logic governing agent decisions and behaviors.FindingsThe feedback loop created by individual sender and carrier agents' participation decisions generates complex and dynamic network effects that are observable at the platform level. Experimental results demonstrate the importance of having sufficient crowd carriers available when the platform is initially launched, as well as ensuring that sender and carrier participation remains balanced as the platform grows over time.Research limitations/implicationsThe model successfully demonstrates the power of agent-based modeling (ABM) in analyzing network effects in crowd-shipping systems. However, the model has not yet been fully validated with data from a real-world crowd-shipping platform. Furthermore, the model's geographic scope is limited to a single census tract. Platform behavior will likely differ across geographic regions, with varying demographics and sender/carrier density.Practical implicationsThe modeling approach can be used to provide the manager of a volunteer-based crowd-shipping program for food rescue with insights on how to achieve a critical mass of participants, with an appropriate balance between the number of restaurant food donation delivery requests and the number of crowd-shippers available and willing to make those deliveries.Social implicationsThis research can help a crowd-shipping platform for urban food rescue to grow and become self-sustainable, thereby serving more food-insecure people.Originality/valueThe model represents both senders and the carrier crowd as autonomous, heterogeneous and adaptive agents, such that network effects resulting from their interactions can emerge and be observed over time. The model was designed to study a volunteer crowd-shipping platform for food rescue, with participant motivations driven by personal values and social factors, rather than monetary incentives.