scholarly journals Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1243
Author(s):  
Eugenio Arima ◽  
Paulo Barreto ◽  
Farzad Taheripour ◽  
Angel Aguiar
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Multiple Cropping ◽  
Conservation Units ◽  
Cropland Area ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Trade Elasticity

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation.

Comparing the Economic Impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inkyo Cheong ◽  
Jose Tongzon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Several initiatives have emerged for regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has led the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and ASEAN countries have recently started to promote the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. This paper estimates the net economic impact of these initiatives by eliminating the overlapping portions of free trade agreement–related economic gains through the use of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The paper analyzes the economic and political feasibility of these two initiatives and assesses their economic impacts. Finally, the paper provides implications for economic integration in East Asia based on a quantitative assessment.

scholarly journals Effects of the Common Agricultural Policy potential scenarios after 2013 in the Slovak Republic

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
E. Uhrinčaťová
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Common Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Flat Rate ◽  
The Common

The contribution presents the modelling solution of the potential scenarios impact of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union after 2013 in the selected sectors of the Slovak Republic national economy. The solution is accomplished using the Computable General Equilibrium model with the emphasis on the productive and less favourable agricultural areas and the theoretical rents for agricultural land. If we take into consideration both pillars of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, according to the modelling calculations in Slovak conditions the most favoured is the Conservative scenario, the Reference and the Flat Rate scenario are neutral and the least favourable is the Liberalisation scenario.

scholarly journals An assessment of import tariff costs for Italian exporting firms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Fusacchia ◽  
Alessandro Antimiani ◽  
Luca Salvatici
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Trade Protection ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Exporting Firms ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Tariff Structure

AbstractSince production and trade are increasingly organized within global value chains (GVCs), assessing who effectively pays the cost of protection is not straightforward and since productive processes are internationally fragmented, quantifying the effects of trade policy requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes international input–output linkages into account to assess the implications trade costs have on competitiveness at national and sector levels. This paper defines a new synthetic measure of trade protection based on the value added in trade, capturing the effects that the tariff structure has on exporting firms that rely on imported intermediate inputs. The index, defined in a general equilibrium framework, provides a theoretically sound protection measurement in the context of GVCs. We assess trade protection by computing protection indexes at the bilateral level on both gross imports and imports to exports using the Global Trade Analysis Project computable general equilibrium model. These indexes are used to investigate the relationship between the European Union tariffs and integration of the Italian GVCs. In the case of Italy, imports to exports are overall less protected than gross imports with significant differences at the sector level. Despite the low levels of nominal protection, industrial sectors play a central role in explaining our results. EU tariffs mostly affect Italian exporting firms in the case of chemical products, wearing apparel and leather products.

Modeling the Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Domestic Transportation Gateways, Corridors, and Ports

2017 ◽  
Vol 2611 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Bachmann
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Government

Canada has recently made progress with several free trade agreements (FTAs), and although the government has carried out considerable analysis of their potential impact on the Canadian economy, little to no work has been done to assess the potential impact on Canada's transportation system. The objective of the research was to estimate the impacts of recent and forthcoming FTAs on Canada's domestic trade infrastructure. This study extended a typical computable general equilibrium simulation of an FTA by estimating high-level domestic supply chain characteristics (i.e., subnational region of origin or destination, sub-national region of exit or entry, international transportation mode, port of clearance) and by converting the resulting trade flows to freight flows measured in tonnage. The results indicate that the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union (EU) may have had large impacts on Canada's Continental and Atlantic Gateways, especially at the Port of Montreal, Quebec, as a result of trade creation with the EU. CETA also has had impacts on various crossings at the U.S. border as a result of trade diversion with the United States. Simulations, however, suggested that the Canada–Korea Free Trade Agreement has had relatively small impacts, mostly concentrated in the Asia-Pacific Gateway, particularly at the Port of Vancouver, British Columbia. Although the impacts were FTA-specific, this research demonstrated the need to consider FTAs in commodity forecasting and freight transportation planning, because they could make sizable changes to future freight flows on domestic transportation infrastructure.

scholarly journals The Good, the Bad and the Uncertain: Bioenergy use in the European Union

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Philippidis ◽  
Heleen Bartelings ◽  
John Helming ◽  
Robert M'barek ◽  
Edward Smeets ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Advanced Biofuels ◽  
Low Carbon Economy ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Impact

As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more 'sustainable' conventional biofuels plan and a 'no-mandate' scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets.

TOWARDS OIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION: IMPACT OF DEVELOPING 8 (D-8) PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (02) ◽  
pp. 1350009
Author(s):  
JAMAL OTHMAN ◽  
MUSTAFA ACAR ◽  
YAGHOOB JAFARI
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Welfare Gain ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
The Impact

The Developing 8 (D-8) comprises of eight developing countries (Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and Nigeria), all of which are OIC members with large Muslim populations. The D-8 has formed a freer trade alliance with the objectives to create new opportunities and enhance intra-trade relations while providing better standards of living for its citizens. This paper examines the trade impact of possible trade liberalization among the D-8 countries using a multi-country computable general equilibrium model, i.e., GTAP. Results indicate that while the D-8 intra-trade is expected to increase very substantially, not all member countries will experience a welfare gain under a free trade arrangement. Likewise, the impact on economic sectors differs substantially across countries.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF FREE TRADE BETWEEN ASEAN AND CHINA ON THE INDONESIAN HOUSEHOLDS

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Indra Maipita
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Urban Households ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Show

Free trade agreement between ASEAN and China was executed in early 2010. Various types of trade tariffs have been removed or lowered to support the agreement which may lead to changes in the welfare of Indonesian households. This research tries to find out the impact of ASEAN-China free trade agreement on the welfare of households in Indonesia. The model used for this analysis is AGEFIS model, a Computable General Equilibrium model of Indonesian economy. The findings of this research show that the free trade between ASEAN and China increases the level of economic activity. Various macroeconomic indicators such as output and exports increase relative to the output prior to the  free trade agreement. Income of urban households rise but rural households are adversely affected. Skilled-workers benefits more than unskilled ones.

scholarly journals Russian Food Import Ban – Impacts on Rural and Regional Development in Finland

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 506-526
Author(s):  
Nina Hyytiä
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Food Industries ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

AbstractThis paper investigates the economic effects of the food import ban that Russia imposed vis-à-vis the European Union in 2014 on the development of two structurally different rural regions in Finland. A detailed, rural-urban dataset was compiled for use with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. In the medium run, the overall economic effects of the trade ban were negative for both regions, and the value added of agriculture and food industries fell notably. When the rigidities of capital availability were relaxed, regional GDP and employment increased in South Ostrobothnia as, for instance, metal industry and construction accelerated economic growth. In North Karelia, where agriculture and food industry account for a minor share of economy, other industries could not compensate the losses the ban caused. Accordingly, the impacts were dependent on the economic structure of the region.

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