Relationship between Labor and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Practice and Forecast

This paper analyzes the effects of the fluctuation in labor force and labor productivity on Vietnam's economic growth. Using the neoclassical growth model with data from the General Statistics Office, the study shows that when the number of laborers increases by 1%, the economic growth rate will raise by 2.78%. Combined with predicted figures on changes in Vietnam's labor force in the period of 2009-2049, the results of the study reveal in order to maintain the current economic growth rate, labor productivity needs to increase to 106.2% in the period of 2029-2039 and 111.6% in the period of 2039-2049. Vietnam is losing the advantage of labor force so its long-term economic growth will depend mainly on labor productivity. Improving the quality of labor is the driving force for economic growth. This depends on the combination of specific national policies and strategies, in which education and training policies are highlighted.

Pension Reforms, Population Aging, and Retirement Decision of the Elderly in a Neoclassical Growth Model

This study explores the linkage between the labor force participation of the elderly and the long-run performance of the economy in the context of a two-period-lived overlapping generations model. We assume that the old agents are heterogeneous in their labor efficiency and they continue working if their income exceeds the pension that can be received in the case of full retirement. We first inspect the key factors that determine the retirement decision of the elderly. We then examine analytically as well as numerically the long-run impact of labor participation of the elderly on capital accumulation and income distribution.

CAPITAL AND GROWTH

This paper develops and discusses a neoclassical growth model with two inputs: physical capital stock and combined stock of human and intellectual capital. The production process is subject to diminishing returns to capital in perfect markets, in sharp contrast to new endogenous growth models that assume increasing returns to capital in imperfect markets. The model finds that a high saving rate raises both transitional and steady state growth rates of output through increases in physical, human, and intellectual investments that augment labor productivity—a key extension of the Solow (1956)-Swan (1956) growth model. Additionally, the paper derives an optimal rule for choosing the saving rate that maximizes consumer welfare. Implications for growth policies are drawn.

The Neoclassical Growth Model and the Labor Share Decline

The labor share may be declining in the data, but it is often assumed constant in neoclassical growth models (NGM). We assess the quantitative importance of this discrepancy by comparing alternative calibration approaches featuring constant and declining labor shares. We find little difference in model performance. Our results derive from strong general equilibrium effects: while a declining labor share mechanically lowers wage growth, the investment response pushes wages back up. Hence, different models deliver nearly identical paths of macro aggregates. Numerous robustness checks (including a CES production function, different time periods, and calculations of the labor share) reinforce the similarity of performance across model specifications. We conclude that the NGM with a constant labor share is still an appropriate choice to study many standard macro aggregates.

Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics?

What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using more limited data, and are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce more labor scarcity and/or more precautionary savings.

The Greek Great Depression from a neoclassical perspective

This paper follows the great depression methodology of Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007) to study the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) in the Greek economic crisis over the period 2008-2017. Using growth accounting and the neo- classical growth model, the paper shows that exogenous changes in TFP are crucial for the Greek depression. The theoretical model reproduces quite well the decline in economic activity over 2008-2013 and the subsequent period of slow recovery found in the data. Nevertheless, it is less successful in predicting the magnitude of the decline in output and the labour factor. In addition, including financial frictions and risk shocks into the neoclassical growth model, does not significantly improve the model’s performance.

Free labor mobility and indeterminacy in models of neoclassical growth

This paper establishes the conditions under which indeterminacy can occur in a Neoclassical growth model with international labor mobility. In the model, workers are supposed to move freely across countries without restrictions, and according to a Harris–Todaro mechanism that makes migration flows sensitive to differences among labor markets conditions. The paper shows that indeterminacy requires the marginal returns to immigrant labor to be diminishing, and no need for productivity externalities at a social level. It also shows that immigration quotas can serve it well to eliminate indeterminacy and stabilize final output.