Stranded Assets: How Policy Uncertainty affects Capital, Growth, and the Environment

The paper considers stochastic environmental policy and its effects on the environment, portfolio composition, and economic growth. Capital accumulation causes pollution which is reduced by private green services and public abatement. The government subsidizes green services and taxes dirty capital albeit at a rate which may become random, causing unexpected capital write-offs. Tax jumps depend on natural degradation and environmental activism. We derive how uncertainty and political activism affect the risk premia for investors. We analyze the incentives for firms to increase the greenness of production in order to reduce political uncertainty. Stochastic taxation is shown to act as a substitute for green subsidies when uncertainty decreases in the ratio of green services to capital and agents use their green activities strategically. Tax uncertainty may trigger precautionary savings, causing additional growth and enhanced environmental deterioration.

The role of pension knowledge in voluntary pension and banking savings in Chile

PurposeIn an era of increasing financial vulnerability, people are not saving enough to either fund their future pension benefits or having precautionary savings. The authors propose that pension knowledge makes people increase their probability of having voluntary pension and banking savings.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the social protection survey in Chile, a unique set of panel data for affiliates in 2006 and 2009. First, the authors use clustering algorithms to find naturally occurring groupings in the level of pension knowledge. Second, the authors run a probit regression model for explaining the probability of having a voluntary pension and banking savings, using as determinants the level of pension knowledge and several control variables that are usually explored in the literature.FindingsThe authors find two clusters of pension knowledge in the Chilean pension system. In addition, the authors find that there is a positive correlation between high pension knowledge and good financial decision-making, as these people have voluntary retirement and banking savings.Practical implicationsAs people who spend time planning accumulate more wealth, it is important to develop public policies that promote the advantages to know better about the benefits of having voluntary savings for the long-term horizon. Conscientious people are also more likely to have voluntary savings.Social implicationsPolicy programs to increase to be responsible can have positive effects on society's welfare.Originality/valueUp to the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that connects clustering algorithms and pension knowledge.

Economic policy uncertainty and investment in Spain

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on firms’ investment decisions. We focus on Spain for the period 1998–2014. To measure policy-related uncertainty, we borrow the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indicator available for this country. We find strong evidence that uncertainty reduces corporate investment. This relationship appears to be nonlinear, being the marginal effect of uncertainty attenuated toward zero during periods of high uncertainty levels. Furthermore, the heterogeneous results suggest that the adverse effect of uncertainty is particularly relevant for highly vulnerable firms. Overall, these results are consistent with the hypotheses that economic policy-related uncertainty reduces corporate investment through increases in precautionary savings or to worsening of credit conditions.

Unintended Consequences of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: The Role of Banks

We use disaggregated U.S. data and a border discontinuity design to show that more generous unemployment insurance (UI) policies lower bank deposits. We test several channels that could explain this decline and find evidence consistent with households lowering their precautionary savings. Since deposits are the largest and most stable source of funding for banks, the decrease in deposits affects bank lending. Banks that raise deposits in states with generous UI policies squeeze their small business lending. Furthermore, counties that are served by these banks experience a higher unemployment rate and lower wage growth.

Financial Literacy and the Early Withdrawal of Funds From Retirement Accounts

This study examined the association between financial literacy and the decision to withdraw funds from different types of retirement accounts before retirement. Data from the 2012 and 2015 National Financial Capability Study were used to investigate if financial literacy may potentially influence the decision to dissave from funds already set aside for retirement. The results showed that lower financial literacy appeared to increase the likelihood to retract funds saved for retirement, across different types of retirement accounts. The importance of financial literacy persisted, even after controlling for income shocks to personal finances, the availability of precautionary savings as an alternative source of funding, and an extensive set of demographic variables.

Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics?

What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using more limited data, and are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce more labor scarcity and/or more precautionary savings.