Proposed model for predicting economic growth based on the Keynesian aggregate demand equation: Case of Ecuador 1965-2018

It is important for researchers and economic policy makers to forecast GDP but sometimes it is complicated or expensive to access the information of the five components of the equation, so this research proposed to validate a model as parsimonious as possible that would make reliable predictions of GDP. Through an iterative process they were estimated and validated, using multiple linear regression and based on the Expenditure Method equation, equations to whichnon-significant and / or less explanatory regressors were eliminated seeking maximum parsimony, to then prove the predictive power of valid equations. As a result, a statistically valid estimator with high predictive power was found, but it includes the five regressors of the original equation. Keywords: GDP, aggregate demand, forecast, parsimony. References [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [Online]. Available: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [Online]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer and R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel and B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud and C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal and S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick and D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney and T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica-Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [Online]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati and D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México, D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court and E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [Online]. Available: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963.

ISLP COUNTRY COORDINATORS AS AMBASSADORSOF STATISTICAL LITERACY AND INNOVATIONS

The International Statistical Literacy Project (ISLP) was established in 1994 by the International Statistical Institute and operates under the auspices of the International Association for Statistical Education. Today, the ISLP has 134 country coordinators spread across all continents of the world. The aim of this article is to describe and assess the activities of those country coordinators and discuss their contribution to advancing statistical literacy and that of ISLP. Some strategic issues for the ISLP executive are discussed, in particular, given the recent success of the ISLP in Latin America, and how this might inform future developments of the International Statistical Literacy Project. First published February 2020 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

Malaysian People Financial Prosperity

During the first sitting of the fifth term of the 13th Malaysian Parliament, The Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Muhammad V pledged to reign in a just and fair manner by placing the well-being of the people and prosperity of the nation above all else. Thus it becomes the task of the Malaysian Government which includes the financial prosperity of the people. This paper aims at identifying the level of financial prosperity of Malaysian people. It has been identified that financial prosperity is a major problems among Malaysians, a result obtained from a survey research with 2000 samples taken from the whole country which is in accordance with the standards set by the International Statistical Institute [ISI]. The data collected were analyzed using various statistical methods and one of the method used to determine the people financial prosperity or financial well-being is by using index, namely the Malaysian People Satisfaction Index [MPSI]. We categorized the financial prosperity into four levels, namely the poor income, moderate income, good income and excellent income. The survey results show that the level of financial prosperity for Malaysian people is 49.6% with a mean of 4.88 which is categorized as moderate income. Further analysis shows that there are significant differences between the respondents' demographic factors and the financial prosperity. This shows that the government and relevant agencies need to play a more significant role to ensure the policies that are enacted can contribute to the well-being of the people. It would just be very difficult for Malaysia to become a developed nation by 2020 if the status of financial prosperity or financial well-being of its people is still at moderate level income.

New Trends in International Statistics

The article deals with the directions of development of modern international statistics. The main events in international statistics are described in detail: the 61st World Statistical Congress of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) and its satellite conferences. The main problems, strategic priorities and new approaches to solving methodological problems of international statistics are described. At the same time, the emphasis is on innovation in international statistics. During the last decade, an explosion in computing and information technology has taken place. With her came a huge amount of data (Big Data) in various fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. What ethical problems arise in connection with the Big Data? What is the role of web scanners in collecting data for compilation of official statistics? What indicators are important for policy making? These and many other topics were discussed during the 61st World Congress of Statistics, ISI. Participants of the congress, which represents statistical, scientific and business communities, exchanged views on recent developments in the content and methodology of statistics. International Statistical Institute has published the Strategy ISI 2017-2021. To increase activity and facilitate open dialogue, the International Statistical Institute organized an open meeting to discuss strategic priorities with its members. During these meetings, the opportunity was offered to provide practical guidance and suggestions on the most important activities, goals and achievements of the ISI and its associations The special event “Statistical Approaches to Environmental Impact and Climate Change Measurement” was held at the Congress, organized by the High Commission for Planning, the Moroccan Presidency of COP22 and the United Nations Statistics Division with the participation of the State Secretariat for Sustainable Development. During this event, issues concerning the statistical measurement and quantification of environmental indicators related to natural resources management, the effects of climate change and risks of natural disasters were discussed. Another problem that was considered at the congress was the problem of the development of information technology. The article deals with new tasks facing official statistics. With the rapid development of the survey methodology, various government agencies are now exploring how to combine national data from surveys with administrative data and census data to create reliable statistics for small areas. The problems of the association of researchers and practitioners who are interested in the interaction of computer sciences, statistics and data visualization are considered. The article also deals with problems of international statistical education. The focus was on the following question: the era of Big Data, what does it mean for us statisticians-educators; creating socially responsible societies with statistics; employability skills for statistics graduates.

Na Primeira República, Bulhões Carvalho legaliza a atividade estatística e a põe na ordem do Estado

Recriada nos primórdios da República (jan./1890), como órgão central, a Diretoria Geral de Estatística (DGE) enfrentou dificuldades para consolidar a atividade estatística brasileira. Um novo rumo só foi ensaiado, e razoavelmente alcançado, quando José Luiz Sayão de Bulhões Carvalho (1866-1940), médico e sanitarista, dedicado aos estudos e pesquisas demográficas, assumiu sua direção (em dois períodos) por quase 17 anos. Em várias frentes de atuação, aplicou-se em facilitar o convívio da DGE com seus similares na federação (extremada) então vigente. Idealizou acordos com órgãos estaduais; imaginou conselhos para tomada de decisões coletivas; imaginou uma conferência estatística, baseada na experiência de participação em dois congressos do International Statistical Institute (1S1); ajudou a formar uma comunidade estatística, pensando a formação do profissional especializado, para tanto tendo estimulado e patrocinado a tradução de livros; entre outras medidas. O Censo de 1920, que idealizou e conduziu, sendo o único grande censo na Primeira República, pautou-se em relações amistosas com os governos federal e estaduais e com a sociedade organizada (Igreja, imprensa, sindicatos, clubes etc.). Realizou, então, por assim dizer, um censo moderno, utilizando máquinas de apuração e o concluindo em tempo hábil. Na divulgação dos resultados, inovou na feitura de gráficos (pictóricos), seja para os volumes impressos, seja para o Pavilhão da Estatística, também chamado de Pavilhão da Ciência da Certeza, que marcou a presença da DGE na Exposição Internacional Comemorativa do Centenário da Independência. Com sua vivência, antecipou as bases do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (1BGE), obra de um seu discípulo, e que pode ser visto como a medida do seu sucesso (a longo prazo).