Proposed model for predicting economic growth based on the Keynesian aggregate demand equation: Case of Ecuador 1965-2018

It is important for researchers and economic policy makers to forecast GDP but sometimes it is complicated or expensive to access the information of the five components of the equation, so this research proposed to validate a model as parsimonious as possible that would make reliable predictions of GDP. Through an iterative process they were estimated and validated, using multiple linear regression and based on the Expenditure Method equation, equations to whichnon-significant and / or less explanatory regressors were eliminated seeking maximum parsimony, to then prove the predictive power of valid equations. As a result, a statistically valid estimator with high predictive power was found, but it includes the five regressors of the original equation. Keywords: GDP, aggregate demand, forecast, parsimony. References [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [Online]. Available: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [Online]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer and R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel and B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud and C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal and S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick and D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney and T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica-Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [Online]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati and D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México, D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court and E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [Online]. Available: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963.

Raising Awareness of Indonesia's Climate Change Mitigation by Social Media Campaign

Climate change is a big concern that must be realized because it has become a problem in various sectors both at the international, regional, national and local levels. The occurrence of climate change will certainly also affect the occurrence of extreme weather and disasters - disasters that are not wanted by the public at large. However, the level of public awareness of the bad climate change is still fairly low due to the lack of knowledge about climate change. People can play a role in dealing with climate change, and be actors in mitigating these changes. The use of public communication can increase public awareness and participation in adaptation and mitigation actions on climate change can be realized in many ways, one of which is campaigning to the public. The purpose of this research is to find out how the implementation of social media campaigns in raising awareness of Indonesia's climate change mitigation in the future. The research method that will be used is qualitative with data collection techniques used is Focus Group Discussion, document studies and observations on the intended social media accounts. Researchers did simple research by creating social media accounts to conduct campaigns on the SDGs' points on climate change. The result of this research is the implementation of social media campaigns in raising awareness of Climate Change Mitigation in Indonesia raises various positive aspects ranging from changes in people's lifestyles and presenting good awareness.

Leadership in the early years: Challenges and opportunities

The lack of recognition and support for leadership and leadership development in the New Zealand early years’ sector has long been recognised (Thornton, Wansbrough, Clarkin-Philips, Aitken, & Tamati, 2009). This article reflects on what has changed in the 10 years since the publication of a discussion document by the Teachers Council which signalled a number of issues facing the sector with regard to leadership. Research and guiding documents are drawn on in order to identify the current challenges and opportunities, and recommendations are made for strengthening future leadership practice in the sector.

Leadership in the early years: Challenges and opportunities

The lack of recognition and support for leadership and leadership development in the New Zealand early years’ sector has long been recognised (Thornton, Wansbrough, Clarkin-Philips, Aitken, & Tamati, 2009). This article reflects on what has changed in the 10 years since the publication of a discussion document by the Teachers Council which signalled a number of issues facing the sector with regard to leadership. Research and guiding documents are drawn on in order to identify the current challenges and opportunities, and recommendations are made for strengthening future leadership practice in the sector.

Marketing Breastfeeding Substitutes: A Discussion Document

Marketing influences knowledge, attitudes, and decisions related to infant and young child nutrition, safety, development, parental confidence, and other aspects of health and wellbeing of the child. These attitudes and behaviours of parents, health workers, policy makers, and other influencers have short- and long-term effects on the child. There is an International Code of Marketing of Breast-Milk Substitutes. Is it time to have a code of marketing of breastfeeding substitutes?

FAITH TOURISM IN TAGAYTAY CITY: BASIS FOR DESTINATION MARKETING

A Faith Tourism tour package was proposed in one of the prominent cities in the Province of Cavite, Philippines based on Dr. Sampad Kumar Swain’s basic tour package components. Through Focus Group Discussion, document analysis and survey questionnaire, the study determined eight tour operators and their clients’ knowledge of Faith Tourism including its benefits and opportunities, and the skills and attitudes in making a Faith Tourism tour package. SWOT Analysis determined the marketing competitiveness of Tagaytay City through the World Economic Forum’s Tourism and Travel Competitive Index (TTCI) 2017. The millenial respondents of the survey questionnaire strongly agreed that the proposed faith tourism tour package is competitive and reflects Swain’s basic components. The common knowledge among tour operators regarding Faith Tourism is it is a pilgrimage, while the basic skills and attitude needed in making Faith Tourism itineraries are professionalism, knowledgeability, and patience. SWOT analysis as a tool for self-assessment revealed that Tagaytay City is “strongly” competitive based on the TTCI 2017 components.

Living with young onset dementia: reflections on recent developments, current discourse, and implications for policy and practice

Recent research on young onset dementia (formal diagnosis at age <65) evidences emerging work around pre-diagnosis, diagnosis and the need to improve post-diagnostic support for this group. An increased awareness of young onset dementia has led to the establishment of peer-support groups, support networks and the involvement of people affected by dementia in research. However, the need to join up services at the systems level persists. Third-sector organisations that offer post-diagnostic support at the community level rely heavily on volunteers. Implications for policy and practice are that community-based commissioning of integrated services between health care, social care and the third sector would go a long way to providing the continuity and stability required in dementia support and care along the illness trajectory. This discussion document was written in collaboration with diagnostic services, the charity sector and conversations with people living with, and affected by, dementia.

Leadership in the early years: Challenges and opportunities

The lack of recognition and support for leadership and leadership development in the New Zealand early years’ sector has long been recognised (Thornton, Wansbrough, Clarkin-Philips, Aitken, & Tamati, 2009). This article reflects on what has changed in the 10 years since the publication of a discussion document by the Teachers Council which signalled a number of issues facing the sector with regard to leadership. Research and guiding documents are drawn on in order to identify the current challenges and opportunities, and recommendations are made for strengthening future leadership practice in the sector.

KONTEMPLASI PENDIDIKAN ISLAM BERBASIS PEMBERDAYAAN EKONOMI

The contemplation of Islamic education has often been used as the basis by the pesantren to conduct Islamic education activities based on the economic empowerment of students and to guide and accompany the students. The Pesantren Sunan Kalijogo has the power that can be utilized to do economic empowerment in Santri. Pesantren that directly touches the students and becomes a medium of community empowerment in the field of societal economics. In the collection of research data, namely, in-depth interviews (indepth interview), this interview is a series of questions that researchers ask to the research subject. Participant observation (participant observation). Focus Group discussion. Document analysis. To form the economic empowerment programs Sunan Kalijogo Pesantren such as entrepreneurship programs, agriculture, fisheries, animal husbandry, livestock feed production, transportation, cooperatives and cafeteria Pesantren. The result of the research in Pesantren Sunan Kalijogo is to adjust the boarding school that has the vision and mission "excellence in Imtaq and Iptek, with national insight, innovative and Berakhlaqul Karimah, then make a curriculum based on economic empowerment, By incorporating Islamic educational values in accordance with the teachings of Islamic law and the trend in the field of economic affairs in Pesantren.