scholarly journals Proposed model for predicting economic growth based on the Keynesian aggregate demand equation: Case of Ecuador 1965-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (111) ◽  
pp. 49-56
Author(s):  
Jorge Antonio Ruso Leon ◽  
Edmundo Ricardo Contreras Chacon ◽  
Digna Priscila Villamar Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Statistical Institute ◽  
International Statistical Institute ◽  
Discussion Document ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Document Review

It is important for researchers and economic policy makers to forecast GDP but sometimes it is complicated or expensive to access the information of the five components of the equation, so this research proposed to validate a model as parsimonious as possible that would make reliable predictions of GDP. Through an iterative process they were estimated and validated, using multiple linear regression and based on the Expenditure Method equation, equations to whichnon-significant and / or less explanatory regressors were eliminated seeking maximum parsimony, to then prove the predictive power of valid equations. As a result, a statistically valid estimator with high predictive power was found, but it includes the five regressors of the original equation. Keywords: GDP, aggregate demand, forecast, parsimony. References [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [Online]. Available: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [Online]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer and R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel and B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud and C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal and S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick and D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney and T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica-Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [Online]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati and D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México, D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court and E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [Online]. Available: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963.

scholarly journals Insights from the evaluation of a provincial healthy eating strategy in Nova Scotia, Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1870-1878
Author(s):  
S Meaghan Sim ◽  
Sara FL Kirk
Keyword(s):  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Healthy Eating ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Strategy Implementation ◽  
Canadian Province ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Health Model ◽  
Document Review ◽  
Depth Interviews

AbstractObjectiveHealthy Eating Nova Scotia represents the first provincial comprehensive healthy eating strategy in Canada and a strategy that is framed within a population-health model. Five years after strategy launch, our objective was to evaluate Healthy Eating Nova Scotia to determine perceptions of strategy implementation and strategy outputs. The focus of the current paper is on the findings of this evaluation.DesignWe conducted an evaluation of the strategy through three activities that included a document review, survey of key stakeholders and in-depth interviews with key strategy informants. The findings from each of the activities were integrated to determine what has worked well with strategy implementation, what could be improved and what outputs have resulted.SettingThe evaluation was conducted in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia.ParticipantsParticipants for this evaluation included survey respondents (n 120) and key informants (n 16). A total of 156 documents were also reviewed.ResultsSignificant investments have been made towards inter-sectoral partnerships and resourcing that has provided the necessary leadership and momentum for the strategy. Policy development has been leveraged through the strategy primarily in the health and education sectors and is perceived as a visible success. Clarity of human resource roles and funding within the context of a provincial strategy may be beneficial for continued strategy implementation, as is expansion of policy development.ConclusionsKnown to be the first evaluation of its kind, these findings and related considerations will be of interest to policy makers developing and implementing similar strategies in their own jurisdictions.

The Effect of New Deal Policies Revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangyang Ji
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
American Economic Review ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The New Deal

Abstract Eggertsson (2012, American Economic Review, 102, 524–55) finds that when the nominal interest rate hits the zero lower bound, the aggregate demand (AD) curve becomes upward-sloping and supply-side policies that reduce the natural rate of output, such as the New Deal implemented in the 1930s, are expansionary. His analysis is restricted to a conventional equilibrium where the AD curve is steeper than the aggregate supply (AS) curve. Recent research, however, demonstrates that an alternative equilibrium arises if the AD curve is flatter than the AS curve. In that case, the same policies become contractionary. In this article, I allow for both possibilities, and let data decide which equilibrium the US economy actually resided in during the Great Depression. Following the work of Blanchard and Quah (1989, American Economic Review, 79, 655–73), I find that there is a high probability that New Deal policies were contractionary. (JEL codes: E32, E52, E62, N12).

Modelling the significance of social support and entrepreneurial skills for determining entrepreneurial behaviour of individuals

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 242-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shoaib Farooq
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Entrepreneurial Intention ◽  
Subjective Norms ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Entrepreneurial Behaviour ◽  
Entrepreneurial Skills ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Although entrepreneurial behaviour is considered a key element for economic development, yet very less is known about the determinants of factors leading towards entrepreneurial intention and behaviour. In order to bridge this gap, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of social support and entrepreneurial skills in determining entrepreneurial behaviour of individuals. Developing on the base of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this study investigates the relationship between social support, entrepreneurial skills and entrepreneurial behaviour along with existing constructs of the TPB (i.e. attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control and entrepreneurial intention). Design/methodology/approach Data was collected from 281 respondents using a simple random sampling method, and the variance-based partial least-squares, structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) approach was used for testing the proposed conceptual model. Findings Findings of this study have validated the proposed model, which have an explanatory power of 68.3 per cent. Moreover, findings reveal that social support and entrepreneurial skills have a significant impact on entrepreneurial intention of individuals. However, an unanticipated and non-significant relation between subjective norms and entrepreneurial intention is also found. Research limitations/implications Due to the limited scope of this study, a multi-group analysis is not possible, which is considered as a limitation of this study. Moreover, due to time constraints, this study is conducted within a specified time-frame; however, a longitudinal study over a period of three to six years can overcome this limitation. Practical implications Findings of this study are expected to have substantial implications for policy makers, future researchers and academicians. Outcomes of this study can help to better understand the cognitive phenomenon of nascent entrepreneurs. Moreover, it is expected that this study can serve as a torch-bearer for policy makers to develop better entrepreneurial development programmes, policies and initiatives for promoting self-employment behaviour. Originality/value Findings of this study are a unique step forward and offer new insights towards a better understanding of the determinants of entrepreneurial behaviour. Moreover, this study extends Ajzen’s (1991) TPB in the context of entrepreneurial behaviour. By introducing and investigating the impact of two new variables, i.e. social support and entrepreneurial skills in the TPB and by validating the proposed model with PLS-SEM approach, this study makes a sizeable theoretical, methodological and contextual contribution in the overall body of knowledge.

scholarly journals Unique aspects of the Islamic microfinance financing process

Humanomics ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Permata Wulandari ◽  
Salina Kassim ◽  
Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung ◽  
Niken Iwani Surya Putri
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Cultural Influences ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
Islamic Principle ◽  
Islamic Microfinance

Purpose This paper aims to highlight on the unique aspects of Islamic microfinance based on the experience of Baitul Maal Wa Tamwil (BMT) in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach It adopts the content analysis approach and focuses on three phases of financing, namely, pre-financing, financing and post-financing using coding and model buildings. Data are collected through in-depth interview with a sample of representatives of BMTs that offer product based on Islamic principle for the poor located in Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tanggerang and Bekasi (JABODETABEK), Sulawesi Selatan, Yogyakarta and Nusa Tenggara Barat (sample chosen based on the most concentrated areas of Islamic microfinance that offered product based on Islamic principles). Ultimately, a model based on the unique features of Islamic microfinance will be developed based on the findings of the content analysis. Findings The proposed model incorporates the peculiarities of the poor people in pre-financing, financing and post-financing activities of micro-financing products to serve as a reference for policy makers. The paper also found that each region has unique product preferences depending on the poor’s characteristics. Research limitations/implications This study is only conducted in four areas with BMT representation, namely, Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi (often abbreviated as JABODETABEK), Sulawesi Selatan, Yogyakarta and Nusa Tenggara Barat) in Indonesia. Despite the limited scope, the findings have wide applications to the Islamic microfinancing in general. Originality/value The paper adds value to the literature on Islamic microfinance by enabling researchers and practitioners to understand the model of three step financing (pre-financing, financing and post-financing) in Islamic microfinance in Indonesia. Although not a new issue, the paper provides the practice of pre-financing, financing and post-financing processes which may differ from the practices of Islamic microfinance in other settings because of different cultural influences unique to every region.

America's Health Care Reforms

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Braithwaite ◽  
Johanna Westbrook
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Bill Clinton ◽  
Health Care Insurance ◽  
American Population ◽  
Health Care Reforms ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Care Costs ◽  
The New Deal

President Bill Clinton is currently proposing the most sweeping changes to American social policy since the New Deal by Roosevelt in the 1930s. Major concerns about escalating health care costs, a mushrooming health care bureaucracy and a growing proportion of the American population who can no longer afford adequate health care insurance coverage have motivated Clinton's plan for health care reform. Ideas about telemedicine, the electronic medical record and more comprehensive and advanced information systems are already being canvassed during the course of the debate. Australian clinicians and policy makers are following the American debate closely. So too, should health information managers. America watching should prove interesting, stimulating and professionally rewarding.

A global New Deal

2021 ◽  
pp. 109-131
Author(s):  
Jens Steffek
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
World Order ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Post War ◽  
United Nations System ◽  
Second World ◽  
The New Deal ◽  
Nations System

This chapter shows how technocratic internationalism survived the crisis of world order utopias in the 1940s and gained influence on the negotiation of the post-war order. The first section discusses the critique of modern rationalism in the war and post-war years. In the field of international thought, that critique came in the guise of a ‘realist’ backlash against the ‘idealism’ of the interwar period. The second section documents the enduring prominence of technocratic ideas during the Second World War. David Mitrany re-proposed his functional approach in his Working Peace System, a pamphlet that addressed policy-makers rather than academics. Regardless, this wartime version of Mitrany’s functionalism became the point of reference for subsequent generations of scholars. Technocratic thought gained political influence when American policy-makers projected the New Deal and its institutions onto the international plane in the founding of the United Nations system. The final section studies the co-existence of realist and technocratic figures of thought. Realist Hans J. Morgenthau came to advocate international cooperation in the field of low politics, but also multilateral control over nuclear technology. In doing so, he drew directly on Mitrany’s functionalism. E. H. Carr, the eminent British critic of utopianism, in the 1940s suggested a technocratic European planning authority and a bank of Europe to unite the continent.

scholarly journals Integration Multi-Model to Evaluate the Impact of Surface Water Quality on City Sustainability: A Case from Maanshan City in China

Processes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanbo Chen ◽  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Mingxia Liao
Keyword(s):  
Water Pollution ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Surface Water Quality ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Evaluation Problem ◽  
The Impact

Water pollution is a worldwide problem that needs to be solved urgently and has a significant impact on the efficiency of sustainable cities. The evaluation of water pollution is a Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem and using a MCDM model can help control water pollution and protect human health. However, different evaluation methods may obtain different results. How to effectively coordinate them to obtain a consensus result is the main aim of this work. The purpose of this article is to develop an ensemble learning evaluation method based on the concept of water quality to help policy-makers better evaluate surface water quality. A valid application is conducted to illustrate the use of the model for the surface water quality evaluation problem, thus demonstrating the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

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